Muğlaspor vs Boluspor: Prediction & Odds (28 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig28 August 202626°31 km/h

Läs på svenska

MuğlasporPossession & high press

2–0

BolusporLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Boluspor (38%)

1 · Muğlaspor 33%X 29%38% Boluspor · 2

33%

29%

38%

Analysis: Muğlaspor – Boluspor

Sofia Andersson · 25 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Boluspor's recent three-game losing streak casts a long shadow over their visit to Muğlaspor, despite the model's slight lean towards the visitors. While both sides boast expected goals close to the 1.5 mark—Muğlaspor at 1.53 and Boluspor at 1.60—the numbers suggest a closely contested match. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, representing an 11% probability, underscores the expected deadlock, although a 1-2 or 2-1 result remains tangible.

The hosts, with their possession-oriented, high-pressing style, have a statistical edge across several metrics. They lead in points and expected points, and their xGA of 1.2 per match is notably lower than Boluspor's 1.8, suggesting a more robust defense. Furthermore, Muğlaspor's ability to generate chances quickly after regaining possession, with an xG of 0.18 within eight seconds of winning the ball, highlights their effective press.

Conversely, Boluspor's direct approach seems to be faltering, evidenced by their recent form and the fact that they lag in both expected points and defensive solidity. Despite their slight xG advantage, the visitors have been unable to convert these into tangible results, raising questions about their current resilience.

Given the high probability of both sides finding the net—63%—and a 60% chance of the match exceeding 2.5 goals, the numbers suggest a lively affair. The balance tilts slightly towards the over 2.5 goals scenario due to Muğlaspor's pressing game paired with Boluspor's defensive vulnerabilities.

While the model leans towards Boluspor, current form, defensive metrics, and the high-pressing prowess of the hosts could well flip the script in their favor.

Muğlaspor

Form LDD

League ranking xG #19xGA #11xT #16xP/match #16Points #18

Key players

Ali Kaan GunerenCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Bilal CeylanRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Daniel AvramovskiCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.18

Boluspor

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #20xGA #18xT #17xP/match #20Points #20

Key players

Bertu Alican OzyurekFxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Furkan Emin KaçmazLWxG 0.17 · xT -0.03
Kevin Andrés Cuesta RodríguezCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Final score

2 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Muğlaspor 33% · Draw 29% · Boluspor 38%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BolusporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 25,96fair 7,34+254 %

Miss

Matchresultat - MuglasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,52fair 7,97-31 %

Miss

Match prediction: Muğlaspor – Boluspor

Predicted score matrix

Boluspor →

Muğlaspor →

0–04.7%

0–16.7%

0–25.6%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.7%

1–06.4%

1–111.0%

1–28.5%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.6%

2–05.1%

2–18.2%

2–26.5%

2–33.5%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.6%

3–14.2%

3–23.3%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.4%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.8%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,53–1,60

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

@1.78

Over 2,560%

@1.90EV+15%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Boluspor or draw (X2)64%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Boluspor or draw (X2)64%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Florent Hasani to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Florent Hasani to score23%
Dean Liço to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Boluspor38% probability@7.11BetsafeEV+172%reference odds
2 · Boluspor38% probability@7.11BetssonEV+172%reference odds
2 · Boluspor38% probability@7.11NordicbetEV+172%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Muğlaspor	X	2 · Boluspor
Betsafe	1.39	EV+ 26% 4.33	EV+ 172% 7.11
Betsson	1.39	EV+ 26% 4.33	EV+ 172% 7.11
Nordicbet	1.39	EV+ 26% 4.33	EV+ 172% 7.11

Odds updated 28 Aug, 08:39

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 26 August — the odds have shortened from 2.04 to 1.78 (−13%).

10 %

73 %63 %

1.39 → 1.39

X0 %

25 %15 %

4.33 → 4.33

20 %

17 %7 %

7.11 → 7.11

Over 2,5+13 %

57 %47 %

1.68 → 1.90

Betsson · 13 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Boluspor have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Muğlaspor

Boluspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Muğlaspor (0–2)

Boluspor (1–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Muğlaspor

Boluspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Muğlaspor

Boluspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Muğlaspor	Boluspor
Points	2	0
xPoints	2.9	2.2
xG per match	0.63	0.63
xGA per match	1.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.23

Playing style	Muğlaspor	Boluspor
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.4
xT per match	0.83	0.72
xTA per match	0.75	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	21	16
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.18
Entries into the box per match	8	10
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.62
Passes per match	292	261
Passes against per match	421	429
Switches of play per match	19.3	26.5
Long balls per match	24	32

Set pieces	Muğlaspor	Boluspor
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	3.3	2
Corners against per match	5.3	5.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0.17
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.94

Other	Muğlaspor	Boluspor
Throw-in control	0.62	0.73

The goalkeepers	Ekrem Kilicarslan (Muğlaspor)	Angelo Tafas (Boluspor)
Saves	7	6
Save %	78%	46%
xG prevented	44%	9%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Muğlaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Boluspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Muğlaspor vs Boluspor according to our model?

The model gives Boluspor a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Muğlaspor 33%, draw 29%, Boluspor 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.