Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor Prediction: Home win 47% (31 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig31 October 202616°7 km/h

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BursasporPossession & high press

BandırmasporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Bursaspor (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Bandırmaspor @ 6.25 (+62 %)

1 · Bursaspor 47%X 27%26% Bandırmaspor · 2

47%

27%

26%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Bursaspor win 47%, draw 27%, Bandırmaspor win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Bursaspor 1.42, Bandırmaspor 1.06. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Bursaspor or draw 74%, Bandırmaspor or draw 53%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Bursaspor – Bandırmaspor

Oscar Nilsson · 24 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Bursaspor's scoring streak is a key factor here, having found the net in 11 consecutive league matches. This consistency in front of goal, alongside their possession and high pressing style, sets them up as the stronger side in their clash against Bandırmaspor. The model gives Bursaspor a 47% chance of victory, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 13%. Yet, the slight edge in both expected goals (1.42) and xPoints (19.1) suggests they might just edge it with a 1-0 or 2-1 win.

The gap between the two teams is evident when we look at their respective points and underlying metrics. Bursaspor has accumulated 25 points compared to Bandırmaspor's 14, showcasing a clear form advantage. Furthermore, Bursaspor's xG per match of 1.7 surpasses Bandırmaspor's 1.4, indicating a more potent attack. On the defensive side, Bursaspor also holds the upper hand with an xGA of 0.79 compared to Bandırmaspor's 0.96, which suggests they are more resilient at the back.

In terms of playing style, both teams favor possession, but Bursaspor's high press might disrupt Bandırmaspor's control-driven approach. This tactical disparity could tilt the balance in favor of Bursaspor, especially if they can capitalize on turnovers in dangerous areas.

With the over 2.5 goals probability sitting at just 45% and both teams to score at 50%, the market anticipates a balanced affair with limited scoring. However, Bursaspor's scoring run and Bandırmaspor's vulnerabilities hint that a narrow, goal-fueled victory for Bursaspor could be on the cards.

Bursaspor

Form DWLWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #3xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Alperen BabacanCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
Juergen Farid Elitim SepúlvedaCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
Kelechi Promise ỊheanachọFxG 0.80 · xT 0.06

Bandırmaspor

Form DLWDL

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #11xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

Enes AydınCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Oluwatosin KehindeLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.18
Lucas Pedro Alves de LimaLBxG 0.10 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: Bursaspor – Bandırmaspor

Predicted score matrix

Bandırmaspor →

Bursaspor →

0–08.7%

0–18.5%

0–24.7%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.5%

1–113.0%

1–26.7%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.4%

2–19.0%

2–24.7%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.0%

3–14.2%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.2-19%
4.0-09%
5.0-19%

Expected goals

1,42–1,06

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@2.08EV+14%

Over 2,545%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bursaspor to win47%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bursaspor to win47%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Kelechi Promise Ịheanachọ to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Kelechi Promise Ịheanachọ to score28%
Dean Liço to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Bandırmaspor26% probability@6.25BetsafeEV+62%reference odds
2 · Bandırmaspor26% probability@6.25NordicbetEV+62%reference odds
Under 0.59% probability@15.00BetsafeEV+31%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bursaspor	X	2 · Bandırmaspor
Betsafe	1.42	EV+ 19% 4.36	EV+ 62% 6.25
Nordicbet	1.42	EV+ 19% 4.36	EV+ 62% 6.25

Odds updated 26 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

67 %62 %

1.43 → 1.42

X+1 %

24 %19 %

4.31 → 4.36

2+1 %

17 %12 %

6.16 → 6.25

Over 2,5-2 %

58 %53 %

1.68 → 1.65

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Bursaspor have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bursaspor

Bandırmaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bursaspor (22–9)

Bandırmaspor (16–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bursaspor

Bandırmaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bursaspor

Bandırmaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bursaspor	Bandırmaspor
Points	25	14
xPoints	19.1	15.3
xG per match	1.7	1.4
xGA per match	0.79	0.96
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.43	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.14

Playing style	Bursaspor	Bandırmaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.31
Field tilt	0.67	0.65
xT per match	1.2	0.95
xTA per match	0.59	0.63
Won balls, offensive half	22	27
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.35
Entries into the box per match	15	13
Entries into the box against	8	8
Pass completion %	0.8	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.76
Passes per match	436	411
Passes against per match	256	234
Switches of play per match	30.4	35.4
Long balls per match	32	44

Set pieces	Bursaspor	Bandırmaspor
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.06
Corners per match	5.6	4.7
Corners against per match	3.4	3.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.66	0.63

Other	Bursaspor	Bandırmaspor
Throw-in control	0.73	0.75

The goalkeepers	Kerem Matışlı (Bursaspor)	Akin Alkan (Bandırmaspor)
Saves	16	27
Save %	64%	77%
xG prevented	36%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bursaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Bandırmaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor according to our model?

The model gives Bursaspor a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bursaspor 47%, draw 27%, Bandırmaspor 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Bursaspor vs Bandırmaspor?

The model expects 1.42 goals (xG) for Bursaspor and 1.06 for Bandırmaspor, 2.48 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Bursaspor or draw (1X) 74%, Bandırmaspor or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.