Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor Prediction: Home win 70% (2 Nov 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig2 November 202613°1,8 mm6 km/h

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KayserisporPossession & high press

MuğlasporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Kayserispor (70%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.65 (+1 %)

1 · Kayserispor 70%X 17%12% Muğlaspor · 2

70%

17%

12%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Monday, 2 November 2026): Kayserispor win 70%, draw 17%, Muğlaspor win 12%. Expected goals (xG): Kayserispor 2.26, Muğlaspor 0.87. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Kayserispor or draw 88%, Muğlaspor or draw 30%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Kayserispor – Muğlaspor

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Kayserispor’s defensive solidity and attacking efficiency make them formidable, as they haven't tasted defeat in their last seven league outings. Their ability to find the net in 11 straight league matches underscores their attacking prowess. With a model probability of 70% favoring the hosts, the numbers clearly point toward another positive result for Kayserispor. The expected goals (xG) also highlight this advantage, with the hosts at 2.26 compared to Muğlaspor's 0.87.

Muğlaspor, on the other hand, struggles to match Kayserispor's form and firepower. Their possession control style will face a stern test against the hosts' high press, likely limiting their chances. The gulf in quality is reflected in the points tally—26 to 15 in favor of Kayserispor—and their xPoints and xG metrics, which further emphasize the hosts' superiority.

While the head-to-head sample is too small to be definitive, the overall form and statistical edge suggest Kayserispor should win comfortably. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (10%), aligning with their goalscoring consistency and defensive resilience. Despite a 52% chance that both teams might score, the hosts’ defensive metrics suggest they can keep a clean sheet.

At odds of 1.83 with Bet365 for a Kayserispor win, there is evident value in backing the hosts. The model suggests a lean toward over 2.5 goals at 61%, but given the defensive quality of Kayserispor, a controlled 2-0 victory offers a compelling narrative. This stable, well-reasoned play might not raise pulses, but it will likely help pay the bills.

Kayserispor

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #4xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Gorkem SaglamCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.27
Semih GulerCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.14
Benhur KeserRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.16

Muğlaspor

Form DDDLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #9xP/match #10Points #9

Key players

Ali BarakLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.21
Bilal CeylanRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.15
Daniel AvramovskiCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Kayserispor – Muğlaspor

Predicted score matrix

Muğlaspor →

Kayserispor →

0–04.6%

0–13.5%

0–21.6%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.6%

1–18.8%

1–23.7%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.2%

2–19.7%

2–24.2%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.4%

3–17.3%

3–23.2%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–08.1%

4+–17.0%

4+–23.1%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.2-110%
3.1-010%
4.1-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,26–0,87

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.09

Over 2,561%

@1.64

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Kayserispor to win70%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Kayserispor to win70%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Florent Hasani to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Florent Hasani to score36%
Luis Enrique Del Pino Mago to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.538% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
Over 3.538% probability@2.65NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kayserispor	X	2 · Muğlaspor
Betsafe	1.37	4.55	7.09
Nordicbet	1.37	4.55	7.09

Odds updated 26 Oct, 20:36

Odds movement

10 %

69 %64 %

1.37 → 1.37

X+5 %

23 %18 %

4.34 → 4.55

2-7 %

15 %10 %

7.59 → 7.09

Over 2,5-4 %

57 %52 %

1.71 → 1.64

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Kayserispor are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Kayserispor have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kayserispor

Muğlaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kayserispor (24–7)

Muğlaspor (13–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kayserispor

Muğlaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kayserispor

Muğlaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kayserispor	Muğlaspor
Points	26	15
xPoints	19.4	14.9
xG per match	1.9	1.3
xGA per match	0.94	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.05	0.1

Playing style	Kayserispor	Muğlaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.37
Field tilt	0.65	0.48
xT per match	1.1	0.97
xTA per match	0.96	0.83
Won balls, offensive half	20	23
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.21
Entries into the box per match	13	10
Entries into the box against	9	10
Pass completion %	0.82	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.69
Passes per match	440	308
Passes against per match	320	358
Switches of play per match	27.8	20.6
Long balls per match	35	30

Set pieces	Kayserispor	Muğlaspor
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.05
Corners per match	4.7	4.2
Corners against per match	3.9	3.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.57

Other	Kayserispor	Muğlaspor
Throw-in control	0.68	0.74

The goalkeepers	Gokhan Degirmenci (Kayserispor)	Ekrem Kilicarslan (Muğlaspor)
Saves	19	23
Save %	73%	62%
xG prevented	36%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kayserispor

Fixtures, form & tips

Muğlaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor according to our model?

The model gives Kayserispor a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kayserispor 70%, draw 17%, Muğlaspor 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Kayserispor vs Muğlaspor?

The model expects 2.26 goals (xG) for Kayserispor and 0.87 for Muğlaspor, 3.13 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Kayserispor or draw (1X) 88%, Muğlaspor or draw (X2) 30% and no draw (12) 83%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.