Iğdır vs Antalyaspor Prediction: Home win 43% (1 Nov 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig1 November 202613°8 km/h

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IğdırPossession control

AntalyasporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Iğdır (43%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 12.00 (+4 %)

1 · Iğdır 43%X 29%28% Antalyaspor · 2

43%

29%

28%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Iğdır vs Antalyaspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Iğdır win 43%, draw 29%, Antalyaspor win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Iğdır 1.39, Antalyaspor 1.10. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Iğdır or draw 72%, Antalyaspor or draw 57%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Iğdır – Antalyaspor

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: In a clash of possession-oriented sides, Iğdır enters with a distinct edge. The hosts remain unbeaten in their last eight league matches, underlining their form. Their 23 points trump Antalyaspor's 18, but it’s not just the points table that leans in Iğdır's favor. Their xPoints of 16.6 versus Antalyaspor's 13.8 further cements this advantage. Despite both teams averaging an xG of 1.2 per match, the home side's resilience in defense marks them as favorites, with the model giving them a 43% chance of victory.

The match projects to be tightly contested, with the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 reflecting the expected balance. Both teams demonstrate a strong focus on controlling the ball, which could result in a congested midfield and limited scoring opportunities. The 45% probability of over 2.5 goals, combined with a 51% chance of both teams scoring, suggests a game that could go either way in terms of goal tally, but overall leans towards a low-scoring affair.

Given the strong unbeaten streak and favorable home conditions, Iğdır presents value, aligning with the model’s lean. A 1-0 victory for the hosts seems plausible, with under 2.5 goals being marginally favored.

Iğdır

Form WDWDW

League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #18xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Alim OzturkCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.11
Gokcan KayaRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Doğan ErdoğanCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.07

Antalyaspor

Form WWWLW

League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #5xP/match #15Points #7

Key players

Ahmet SagatFxG 0.47 · xT -0.03
Bunyamin BalciRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
Ramzi SafuriCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Iğdır – Antalyaspor

Predicted score matrix

Antalyaspor →

Iğdır →

0–08.6%

0–18.8%

0–25.0%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.6%

1–011.1%

1–113.0%

1–27.0%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.0%

2–18.8%

2–24.9%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.7%

3–14.1%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.0-19%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,39–1,10

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.85EV+1%

Over 2,545%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Iğdır or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Iğdır or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Arda Çolak to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Arda Çolak to score27%
Pedro Filipe Barbosa Moreira to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.59% probability@12.00BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Under 0.59% probability@12.00NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@3.47BetsafeEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Iğdır	X	2 · Antalyaspor
Betsafe	2.04	EV+ 2% 3.47	3.18
Nordicbet	2.04	EV+ 2% 3.47	3.18

Odds updated 25 Oct, 15:37

Statistics

Key facts

Igdir FK are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Iğdır

Antalyaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Iğdır (15–8)

Antalyaspor (17–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Iğdır

Antalyaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Iğdır

Antalyaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Iğdır	Antalyaspor
Points	23	18
xPoints	16.6	13.8
xG per match	1.2	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.39

Playing style	Iğdır	Antalyaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.28
Field tilt	0.5	0.6
xT per match	0.78	1.1
xTA per match	0.84	0.78
Won balls, offensive half	24	19
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.22
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	10	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.76
Passes per match	329	445
Passes against per match	336	305
Switches of play per match	23	35.5
Long balls per match	34	45

Set pieces	Iğdır	Antalyaspor
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.03
Corners per match	4.8	4.9
Corners against per match	4.6	2.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.52

Other	Iğdır	Antalyaspor
Throw-in control	0.67	0.73

The goalkeepers	Jakub Szumski (Iğdır)	Fotios Pseftis (Antalyaspor)
Saves	32	16
Save %	80%	73%
xG prevented	59%	31%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Iğdır

Fixtures, form & tips

Antalyaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Iğdır vs Antalyaspor according to our model?

The model gives Iğdır a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Iğdır 43%, draw 29%, Antalyaspor 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Iğdır vs Antalyaspor?

The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for Iğdır and 1.10 for Antalyaspor, 2.49 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Iğdır or draw (1X) 72%, Antalyaspor or draw (X2) 57% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.