Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor Prediction: Home win 51% (31 Oct 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig31 October 202616°1,1 mm21 km/h

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Fatih KaragümrükPossession & high press

PendiksporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Fatih Karagümrük (51%)

1 · Fatih Karagümrük 51%X 27%22% Pendikspor · 2

51%

27%

22%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Fatih Karagümrük win 51%, draw 27%, Pendikspor win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Fatih Karagümrük 1.62, Pendikspor 1.06. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Fatih Karagümrük or draw 78%, Pendikspor or draw 49%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Fatih Karagümrük – Pendikspor

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

In the small sample of their head-to-head history since 2024, Pendikspor holds an unblemished record against Fatih Karagümrük, having won both of their encounters. However, this two-game streak is more of a curiosity than a reliable predictor. The numbers suggest a different narrative when considering the hosts' current season form and expected goals.

Fatih Karagümrük enters this match with a slight edge, both in terms of points and xPoints, standing at 13 and 14.4 respectively. This advantage is further reinforced by their xG per match, which is notably higher than Pendikspor's at 1.3 to 0.97. Yet, it's not all one-sided. While Karagümrük has the upper hand in offensive metrics, defensively, both teams concede at an equal rate of 1.3 xGA per match. This equilibrium hints at a fairly balanced contest.

Pendikspor is reeling from a three-game losing streak, a factor that weighs heavily against their chances. Fatih Karagümrük, on the other hand, seems poised to exploit this vulnerability, especially with their demonstrated ability to control possession and press high, a style mirrored by their opponents but currently executed with less success. The hosts' model probability of 51% for a win further underscores their perceived superiority in this fixture.

In betting terms, the over/under 2.5 goals market sits finely balanced at 50%, while both teams scoring is slightly more favored at 53%. Fatih Karagümrük's statistical edge, including points, xPoints, and xG per match, supports a lean toward them winning, capitalizing on Pendikspor's current downturn.

Fatih Karagümrük

Form DWDLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #2xP/match #13Points #13

Key players

Anıl Yiğit ÇınarCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Davide BiraschiCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
Daniele VerdeRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.21

Pendikspor

Form DDLLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #12xT #10xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Bekir KaradenizRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
Mesut OzdemirCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Kerem KalafatRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.24

Match prediction: Fatih Karagümrük – Pendikspor

Predicted score matrix

Pendikspor →

Fatih Karagümrük →

0–07.2%

0–16.9%

0–23.9%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.7%

1–112.1%

1–26.3%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.0%

2–19.5%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.9%

3–15.2%

3–22.7%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.8%

4+–13.0%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,62–1,06

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,550%

@1.85

Over 2,550%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fatih Karagümrük to win51%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fatih Karagümrük to win51%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Emre Akbaba to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Emre Akbaba to score33%
Mesut Özdemir to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Fatih Karagümrük	X	2 · Pendikspor
Betsafe	1.83	3.49	3.87
Nordicbet	1.83	3.49	3.87

Odds updated 25 Oct, 12:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Fatih Karagümrük 0Draw 0Pendikspor 2

Goals: 0–4 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Pendikspor have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fatih Karagümrük

Pendikspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fatih Karagümrük (14–15)

Pendikspor (12–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fatih Karagümrük

Pendikspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fatih Karagümrük

Pendikspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fatih Karagümrük	Pendikspor
Points	13	10
xPoints	14.4	12.3
xG per match	1.3	0.97
xGA per match	1.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.18

Playing style	Fatih Karagümrük	Pendikspor
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.56	0.52
xT per match	1.4	0.96
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	27	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.23
Entries into the box per match	14	12
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.74
Passes per match	356	374
Passes against per match	343	330
Switches of play per match	28.6	31.7
Long balls per match	38	44

Set pieces	Fatih Karagümrük	Pendikspor
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.04
Corners per match	4	4.4
Corners against per match	5.3	4.3
xG per corner	0.05	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.65

Other	Fatih Karagümrük	Pendikspor
Throw-in control	0.72	0.77

The goalkeepers	Marco Silvestri (Fatih Karagümrük)	Utku Yuvakuran (Pendikspor)
Saves	30	19
Save %	68%	59%
xG prevented	60%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fatih Karagümrük

Fixtures, form & tips

Pendikspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor according to our model?

The model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fatih Karagümrük 51%, draw 27%, Pendikspor 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor?

The model expects 1.62 goals (xG) for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.06 for Pendikspor, 2.69 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Fatih Karagümrük or draw (1X) 78%, Pendikspor or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.