Sivasspor vs Boluspor Prediction: Home win 52% (1 Nov 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig1 November 202611°0,2 mm17 km/h

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SivassporPossession control

BolusporLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Sivasspor (52%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.19 (+18 %)

1 · Sivasspor 52%X 28%20% Boluspor · 2

52%

28%

20%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sivasspor vs Boluspor (Turkish 1. Lig, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Sivasspor win 52%, draw 28%, Boluspor win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Sivasspor 1.76, Boluspor 0.95. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Sivasspor or draw 80%, Boluspor or draw 48%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sivasspor – Boluspor

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sivasspor's methodical possession style comes up against Boluspor's low defensive block and direct play in a match where the hosts are clear favorites. With a 52% chance of winning, the model leans firmly towards Sivasspor, who are unbeaten in their last seven league outings and have found the net in nine straight matches. Boluspor, on the other hand, appear to be struggling with just four points to show so far this season compared to the hosts' thirteen. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 or 1-0 reflect the tension between a solid defense and a team known for controlling the ball.

Given the limited head-to-head sample since 2024—just two matches—the 2-0 record for the hosts isn't a strong predictor, though it does add a slight psychological edge. More telling is the expected goals data, which indicates Sivasspor should dominate with projected figures of 1.76 xG compared to Boluspor's 0.95 xG. The visitors' defensive approach could be tested against a team that thrives on maintaining possession and creating chances.

Despite the potential for a low-scoring affair, the probabilities for over 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (51%) are finely poised. Sivasspor's tendency to score routinely, coupled with their recent form, suggests they might edge this encounter. A narrow 1-0 or 2-0 win for the hosts seems likely, as Boluspor's direct play might struggle to break through.

Based on the model's probabilities, Sivasspor stands out as the lean, with the statistical edges in points, xPoints, and xG per match reinforcing this assessment.

Sivasspor

Form DDWDD

League ranking xG #8xGA #18xT #17xP/match #8Points #12

Key players

Uğur ÇiftçiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.19
Musah MohammedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Rey ManajFxG 0.69 · xT -0.02

Boluspor

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #20xP/match #20Points #20

Key players

Muhammet Zeki DursunFxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Abdulsamet KırımLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Canberk Omer OzdemirLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Sivasspor – Boluspor

Predicted score matrix

Boluspor →

Sivasspor →

0–07.0%

0–16.0%

0–23.0%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–011.4%

1–111.5%

1–25.3%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.3%

2–19.8%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.0%

3–15.7%

3–22.7%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.9%

4+–13.7%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,76–0,95

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.08EV+2%

Over 2,551%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sivasspor to win52%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sivasspor to win52%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Rey Manaj to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Rey Manaj to score43%
Tolunay Artuç to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw28% probability@4.19BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
X · Draw28% probability@4.19NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
2 · Boluspor20% probability@5.77BetsafeEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sivasspor	X	2 · Boluspor
Betsafe	1.47	EV+ 18% 4.19	EV+ 17% 5.77
Nordicbet	1.47	EV+ 18% 4.19	EV+ 17% 5.77

Odds updated 25 Oct, 19:36

Odds movement

1-3 %

64 %59 %

1.51 → 1.47

X+1 %

24 %19 %

4.16 → 4.19

2+10 %

19 %14 %

5.25 → 5.77

Over 2,50 %

58 %53 %

1.65 → 1.65

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sivasspor 2Draw 0Boluspor 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Sivasspor are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Sivasspor have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sivasspor

Boluspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sivasspor (15–14)

Boluspor (4–25)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sivasspor

Boluspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sivasspor

Boluspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sivasspor	Boluspor
Points	13	4
xPoints	15.6	11.6
xG per match	1.3	0.61
xGA per match	1.6	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.25

Playing style	Sivasspor	Boluspor
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.44	0.29
xT per match	0.78	0.64
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	20	18
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.18
Entries into the box per match	11	7
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.72	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.68
Passes per match	268	253
Passes against per match	343	444
Switches of play per match	25.9	23.4
Long balls per match	35	32

Set pieces	Sivasspor	Boluspor
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.07
Corners per match	3.8	2.3
Corners against per match	5.3	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.71

Other	Sivasspor	Boluspor
Throw-in control	0.7	0.73

The goalkeepers	Arda Erdursun (Sivasspor)	Angelo Tafas (Boluspor)
Saves	20	32
Save %	80%	59%
xG prevented	64%	27%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sivasspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Boluspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sivasspor vs Boluspor according to our model?

The model gives Sivasspor a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sivasspor 52%, draw 28%, Boluspor 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sivasspor vs Boluspor?

The model expects 1.76 goals (xG) for Sivasspor and 0.95 for Boluspor, 2.71 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sivasspor or draw (1X) 80%, Boluspor or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.