Istanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 Prediction: Away win 45% (1 Nov 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig1 November 202617°3,9 mm11 km/h

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IstanbulsporPossession control

Mardin 1969Low block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Mardin 1969 (45%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 13.00 (+14 %)

1 · Istanbulspor 31%X 24%45% Mardin 1969 · 2

31%

24%

45%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Istanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 (Turkish 1. Lig, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Istanbulspor win 31%, draw 24%, Mardin 1969 win 45%. Expected goals (xG): Istanbulspor 1.15, Mardin 1969 1.32. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Istanbulspor or draw 55%, Mardin 1969 or draw 69%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Istanbulspor – Mardin 1969

Sofia Andersson · 24 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The numbers suggest Mardin 1969 are the stronger side here, with a 45% model probability reflecting their superior form and expected goals. Istanbulspor's recent slump of three consecutive losses contrasts sharply with the visitors' solid start, where they've amassed 18 points to the hosts' 5. The model leans towards a Mardin victory, supported by small margins in xPoints and xG metrics.

Expected goals offer a narrow prediction, with Mardin 1969 edging Istanbulspor 1.32 to 1.15. Despite both teams' styles hinting at a tactical battle—possession versus direct play—the low xGA for Mardin suggests a tighter defensive setup that could thwart Istanbulspor's control-oriented approach. A 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline, but with Istanbulspor's shaky defense, the 0-1 result also feels plausible.

The over/under market teeters at 45% for over 2.5 goals, with both teams to score at a slim 51%. These figures imply a restrained affair, likely to hover around two goals without breaking the threshold. Mardin’s propensity for a low defense game may suppress the goal tally further, playing into the model’s expectations.

Historical head-to-head data is limited, diminishing its weight in the analysis compared to current form and strategic tendencies. However, the small sample reinforces Mardin's upper hand, albeit slightly.

For value seekers, Mardin 1969's edge in points, xPoints, and expected goals aligns with the model's lean and their upward trajectory. While not a guarantee, it is where the numbers and recent performances point, particularly if Istanbulspor fail to arrest their slide.

Istanbulspor

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #20xT #19xP/match #16Points #19

Key players

Alieu ChamLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.23
Dijlan AydinCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Emrecan UzunhanCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04

Mardin 1969

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #13xP/match #6Points #6

Key players

Emre TaşdemirLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.33
Tonio TeklicRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.11
Zdravko Minchev DimitrovLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Istanbulspor – Mardin 1969

Predicted score matrix

Mardin 1969 →

Istanbulspor →

0–08.8%

0–110.7%

0–27.3%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.4%

1–09.3%

1–113.2%

1–28.5%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.6%

2–17.4%

2–24.9%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.2%

3–12.8%

3–21.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,15–1,32

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.90EV+4%

Over 2,545%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mardin 1969 or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mardin 1969 or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Tobi Olarenwaju Ayobami Kayode to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Alieu Cham to score20%
Baba Alhassan to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.59% probability@13.00BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
Under 0.59% probability@13.00NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
1 · Istanbulspor31% probability@3.65BetsafeEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Istanbulspor	X	2 · Mardin 1969
Betsafe	EV+ 14% 3.65	3.65	1.83
Nordicbet	EV+ 14% 3.65	3.65	1.83

Odds updated 26 Oct, 18:36

Statistics

Key facts

Istanbulspor have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Istanbulspor

Mardin 1969

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Istanbulspor (9–26)

Mardin 1969 (14–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Istanbulspor

Mardin 1969

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Istanbulspor

Mardin 1969

The teams in numbers

Performance	Istanbulspor	Mardin 1969
Points	5	18
xPoints	12.7	16.6
xG per match	1.1	1.2
xGA per match	1.8	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.48	0.23

Playing style	Istanbulspor	Mardin 1969
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.36
Field tilt	0.34	0.39
xT per match	0.73	0.87
xTA per match	1.3	1
Won balls, offensive half	20	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.21
Entries into the box per match	9	10
Entries into the box against	15	12
Pass completion %	0.76	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.65
Passes per match	301	257
Passes against per match	437	402
Switches of play per match	26.9	26.6
Long balls per match	36	37

Set pieces	Istanbulspor	Mardin 1969
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.06
Corners per match	3.3	4.8
Corners against per match	6	3.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.68

Other	Istanbulspor	Mardin 1969
Throw-in control	0.71	0.67

The goalkeepers	Alp Tutar (Istanbulspor)	Erce Kardesler (Mardin 1969)
Saves	34	34
Save %	58%	79%
xG prevented	36%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Istanbulspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Mardin 1969

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Istanbulspor vs Mardin 1969 according to our model?

The model gives Mardin 1969 a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Istanbulspor 31%, draw 24%, Mardin 1969 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Istanbulspor vs Mardin 1969?

The model expects 1.15 goals (xG) for Istanbulspor and 1.32 for Mardin 1969, 2.48 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Istanbulspor or draw (1X) 55%, Mardin 1969 or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.