Erzurumspor vs Çorum Prediction: Home win 37% (31 Oct 2026)

Süper Lig31 October 20268°12 km/h

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ErzurumsporBalanced & physical

ÇorumLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Erzurumspor (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.55 (+10 %)

1 · Erzurumspor 37%X 31%32% Çorum · 2

37%

31%

32%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Erzurumspor vs Çorum (Süper Lig, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Erzurumspor win 37%, draw 31%, Çorum win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Erzurumspor 1.30, Çorum 1.30. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Erzurumspor or draw 68%, Çorum or draw 63%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Erzurumspor – Çorum

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

With Erzurumspor hosting Çorum, we find ourselves looking at a clash drenched in defensive caution and a hint of physicality. The hosts have honed a balanced, yet robust style, while the visitors prefer to sit deep and launch direct counterattacks. Both teams share an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.3 per match, suggesting a tightly contested affair where neither side will have it easy breaking the other down.

The model gives Erzurumspor a slight edge with a 37% chance of victory, compared to Çorum's 32%, but it's the likelihood of a draw at 31% that cannot be ignored. The lean towards a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline (13%) reinforces the narrative of a game poised on defensive control. Yet, the expected goals figures for both Erzurumspor and Çorum stand at 1.30, reflecting an evenly matched contest underpinned by risk-averse strategies from both sides.

Çorum might carry a slender advantage in terms of points (13 vs. Erzurumspor's 11) and expected points (11.1 vs. 10.4), but the xG statistics provide a more nuanced picture. The visitors generate slightly more expected goals per match (1.2 to Erzurumspor's 0.83), yet this offensive edge is counterbalanced by the hosts' ability to absorb pressure and disrupt rhythm through physical play.

The goal market offers a subtle indication of a subdued encounter. With over 2.5 goals sitting at just 48%, and both teams to score at 53%, the odds lean towards a low-scoring draw. However, the value play emerges with Erzurumspor's outright win at odds of 37% offered by competitive bookmakers, suggesting a potential edge if they can exploit Çorum's defensive lapses without yielding to the visitors' counterattacks.

Erzurumspor

Form WLWDW

League ranking xG #17xGA #10xT #16xP/match #11Points #10

Key players

Amar GërxhaliuCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Brandon BaiyeCDMxG 0.05 · xT -0.01
Miguel CardosoFxG 0.29 · xT 0.16

Çorum

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #5xP/match #9Points #7

Key players

Alexandros KyziridisLWxG 0.41 · xT 0.23
Ylber RamadaniCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.02
Cengiz UnderRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Erzurumspor – Çorum

Predicted score matrix

Çorum →

Erzurumspor →

0–07.8%

0–19.3%

0–26.3%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.2%

1–09.3%

1–112.9%

1–28.2%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.2%

2–18.1%

2–25.3%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.7%

3–13.5%

3–22.3%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,30–1,30

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.86

Over 2,548%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Erzurumspor or draw (1X)63%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Erzurumspor or draw (1X)63%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Eren Tozlu to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Alexandros Kyziridis to score28%
Ylber Ramadani to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.55LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.35NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Erzurumspor	X	2 · Çorum
Betsafe	EV+ 0% 2.72	EV+ 4% 3.35	2.45
LeoVegas	2.65	EV+ 10% 3.55	2.35
Nordicbet	EV+ 0% 2.72	EV+ 4% 3.35	2.45

Odds updated 24 Oct, 15:37

Odds movement

10 %

37 %32 %

2.65 → 2.65

X-3 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.55

2+4 %

42 %37 %

2.25 → 2.35

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Erzurumspor

Çorum

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Erzurumspor (5–11)

Çorum (18–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Erzurumspor

Çorum

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Erzurumspor

Çorum

The teams in numbers

Performance	Erzurumspor	Çorum
Points	11	13
xPoints	10.4	11.1
xG per match	0.83	1.2
xGA per match	1.3	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.15

Playing style	Erzurumspor	Çorum
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.45	0.52
xT per match	0.68	1
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	18	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.2	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.21
Entries into the box per match	8	10
Entries into the box against	11	13
Pass completion %	0.78	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.77
Passes per match	340	425
Passes against per match	473	363
Switches of play per match	27.5	38
Long balls per match	32	41

Set pieces	Erzurumspor	Çorum
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	3.1	4.2
Corners against per match	4.3	5.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.49

Other	Erzurumspor	Çorum
Throw-in control	0.73	0.63

The goalkeepers	Ertugrul Taskiran (Erzurumspor)	Marcos Felipe de Freitas Monteiro (Çorum)
Saves	19	27
Save %	86%	68%
xG prevented	78%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Erzurumspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Çorum

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Erzurumspor vs Çorum according to our model?

The model gives Erzurumspor a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Erzurumspor 37%, draw 31%, Çorum 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Erzurumspor vs Çorum?

The model expects 1.30 goals (xG) for Erzurumspor and 1.30 for Çorum, 2.60 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Erzurumspor or draw (1X) 68%, Çorum or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.