01 · 2 legs
Safe
- İstanbul Başakşehir to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Süper Lig14°8,2 mm17 km/h
Läs på svenska
İstanbul BaşakşehirBalanced & physicalvs
SamsunsporPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · İstanbul Başakşehir (50%)
İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor · Süper Lig
1 · İstanbul Başakşehir 50%X 26%24% Samsunspor · 2
50%
26%
24%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor (Süper Lig, Sunday, 1 November 2026): İstanbul Başakşehir win 50%, draw 26%, Samsunspor win 24%. Expected goals (xG): İstanbul Başakşehir 1.70, Samsunspor 1.29. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: İstanbul Başakşehir or draw 76%, Samsunspor or draw 50%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: İstanbul Başakşehir – Samsunspor
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: İstanbul Başakşehir's physical prowess meets Samsunspor's possession-heavy approach in what could be a compelling Süper Lig clash. The hosts, backed by a balanced and robust style, have consistently outperformed the visitors in recent encounters, winning three of four meetings since 2023. While a small sample, this dominance is hard to ignore and gives Başakşehir a psychological edge.
Samsunspor, on the other hand, is mired in a grim six-game losing streak. Their control-based game plan may struggle against the physicality of Başakşehir, who are also operating at a higher xG rate of 1.6 per match compared to Samsunspor's 1.0. This offensive edge, coupled with their clearly better xPoints tally, suggests that the hosts are likely to create more dangerous opportunities.
The model pegs Başakşehir as 50% favourites, with the most likely scorelines being a 1-1 draw (11% probability) or a narrow 2-1 victory (9%). With both teams expected to find the back of the net (60% probability) and an over 2.5 goals likelihood at 57%, this matchup might see a fair share of action. Başakşehir's superior xG figures indicate they should create the better chances, though both sides carry the same xGA per match (1.4), so Samsunspor's defense is not notably weaker than Başakşehir's.
Given the numbers, a 2-1 home win seems plausible, but caution is warranted due to the visitors' potential to disrupt with their possession. Still, the losing streak weighs heavily against them.
İstanbul BaşakşehirForm LLWDW
League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #6xP/match #7Points #11
Key players
- Ousseynou BaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
- Christopher OperiLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
- Eldor ShomurodovCAMxG 0.65 · xT 0.13
SamsunsporForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #7xP/match #17Points #17
Key players
- Josafat Wooding MendesRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.16
- Elliot William WattCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
- Gabriele GuarinoCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: İstanbul Başakşehir – Samsunspor
Predicted score matrix
Samsunspor →
İstanbul Başakşehir →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.3%
0–16.2%
0–24.2%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–08.2%
1–111.3%
1–27.1%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.3%
2–19.4%
2–26.0%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–04.1%
3–15.3%
3–23.4%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.6%
4+–13.3%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,70–1,29
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
–
Over 2,557%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- İstanbul Başakşehir to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Eldor Shomurodov to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Eldor Shomurodov to score26%
- Celil Yüksel to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesİstanbul Başakşehir 3Draw 0Samsunspor 1
Goals: 9–2 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.
Key facts
- Samsunspor have lost 6 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
İstanbul Başakşehir
Samsunspor
İstanbul Başakşehir (12–12)
Samsunspor (7–19)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
İstanbul Başakşehir
Samsunspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
İstanbul Başakşehir
Samsunspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | İstanbul Başakşehir | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 4 |
| xPoints | 12.3 | 7.2 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.4 |
| Playing style | İstanbul Başakşehir | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.85 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 406 | 437 |
| Passes against per match | 373 | 334 |
| Switches of play per match | 37.4 | 32.8 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 34 |
| Set pieces | İstanbul Başakşehir | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.66 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| Other | İstanbul Başakşehir | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Muhammed Sengezer (İstanbul Başakşehir) | Okan Kocuk (Samsunspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 34 |
| Save % | 83% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor according to our model?
The model gives İstanbul Başakşehir a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: İstanbul Başakşehir 50%, draw 26%, Samsunspor 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
The model expects 1.70 goals (xG) for İstanbul Başakşehir and 1.29 for Samsunspor, 2.99 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
İstanbul Başakşehir or draw (1X) 76%, Samsunspor or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.