01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Kocaelispor or draw (1X)71%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Süper Lig
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KocaelisporPossession controlvs
Çaykur RizesporPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Kocaelispor (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.45 (+5 %)
Kocaelispor vs Çaykur Rizespor · Süper Lig
1 · Kocaelispor 38%X 30%31% Çaykur Rizespor · 2
38%
30%
31%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kocaelispor vs Çaykur Rizespor (Süper Lig, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Kocaelispor win 38%, draw 30%, Çaykur Rizespor win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Kocaelispor 1.39, Çaykur Rizespor 1.10. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Kocaelispor or draw 69%, Çaykur Rizespor or draw 62%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Kocaelispor – Çaykur Rizespor
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The odds claim ("given odds available at 2.60 with Bet365") is unsupported—no betting odds appear in the FACTS. Here is the corrected text:
Kocaelispor's attacking edge looms large over their encounter with Çaykur Rizespor, yet the numbers suggest a closer match than the points table implies. Despite sitting higher with 15 points to Rizespor's 10, Kocaelispor's expected goals (xG) per game matches perfectly with Rizespor at 1.2. The possession control styles of both teams could lead to a cautious affair, with neither side likely to dominate completely.
The model sees a slight edge for the home side with a 38% win probability, and that's largely due to Kocaelispor's knack for squeezing out results where it matters. Their defensive frailties—evident in a higher expected goals against (xGA) of 1.5 compared to Rizespor's 1.2—mean the hosts are not watertight at the back. However, the most likely scorelines suggest a tight contest, with a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory for Kocaelispor both in play.
While the head-to-head record since 2023 (a small sample of just two matches) slightly favors Rizespor, it doesn't weigh as heavily as the current form and expected metrics. With a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score sitting at 50%, the game could go either way in terms of goals, but a low-scoring draw or a single-goal margin win for the hosts seems more plausible.
The standout value rests with Kocaelispor's potential win. While the hosts have defensive weaknesses, their ability to control possession and carve out chances gives them an edge that's hard to ignore. Expect a tight contest that could tip in Kocaelispor's favor, potentially delivering a 1-0 or 2-1 result.
KocaelisporForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #11xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Berkan KutluCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
- Anfernee Jamal DijksteelCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
- Manuel Luís da Silva CafumanaCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Çaykur RizesporForm LWDLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #4xP/match #12Points #12
Key players
- Attila MocsiCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.18
- Qazim LaçiCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.17
- Modibo SagnanCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Kocaelispor – Çaykur Rizespor
Predicted score matrix
Çaykur Rizespor →
Kocaelispor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.7%
0–18.8%
0–25.0%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–011.2%
1–113.1%
1–27.0%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.0%
2–18.8%
2–24.8%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.7%
3–14.1%
3–22.2%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–11.9%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,39–1,10
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.86EV+2%
Over 2,545%
@1.88
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Kocaelispor or draw (1X)71%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi Agyei to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi Agyei to score20%
- Taylan Antalyalı to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.45LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Kocaelispor38% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Kocaelispor38% probability@2.65NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kocaelispor | X | 2 · Çaykur Rizespor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 2.65 | EV+ 1% 3.35 | 2.52 |
| LeoVegas | 2.50 | EV+ 5% 3.45 | 2.50 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 2.65 | EV+ 1% 3.35 | 2.52 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 16:38
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesKocaelispor 0Draw 1Çaykur Rizespor 1
Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kocaelispor
Çaykur Rizespor
Kocaelispor (11–9)
Çaykur Rizespor (8–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kocaelispor
Çaykur Rizespor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kocaelispor
Çaykur Rizespor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kocaelispor | Çaykur Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 10 |
| xPoints | 12.2 | 10.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Kocaelispor | Çaykur Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 0.89 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.86 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 346 | 391 |
| Passes against per match | 375 | 319 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.3 | 39.4 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 46 |
| Set pieces | Kocaelispor | Çaykur Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.5 |
| Other | Kocaelispor | Çaykur Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Serhat Öztaşdelen (Kocaelispor) | Yahia Fofana (Çaykur Rizespor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 29 | 26 |
| Save % | 81% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 56% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kocaelispor vs Çaykur Rizespor according to our model?
The model gives Kocaelispor a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kocaelispor 38%, draw 30%, Çaykur Rizespor 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kocaelispor vs Çaykur Rizespor?
The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for Kocaelispor and 1.10 for Çaykur Rizespor, 2.49 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kocaelispor or draw (1X) 69%, Çaykur Rizespor or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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