Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe Prediction: Home win 75% (31 Oct 2026)

Süper Lig31 October 202615°3,7 mm17 km/h

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FenerbahçePossession & high press

GöztepeLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Fenerbahçe (75%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.05 (+18 %)

1 · Fenerbahçe 75%X 14%11% Göztepe · 2

75%

14%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe (Süper Lig, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Fenerbahçe win 75%, draw 14%, Göztepe win 11%. Expected goals (xG): Fenerbahçe 2.46, Göztepe 1.13. Most likely score: 2-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Fenerbahçe or draw 89%, Göztepe or draw 25%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Fenerbahçe – Göztepe

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

The head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Göztepe is intriguing, albeit from a small sample of four matches since 2023. Fenerbahçe has managed one win and three draws, suggesting a slight upper hand, yet nothing conclusive. The real story lies in the current dynamics: Fenerbahçe is on a roll with three consecutive victories, bolstered by their high-press, possession-driven style. This tactical approach contrasts sharply with Göztepe's low defense and direct play, setting up a clash of styles that could tilt proceedings in favor of the hosts.

Fenerbahçe's superiority this season is evident not just in their points tally of 16 compared to Göztepe's 9, but also in underlying metrics. They lead in expected points (16.3 vs. 13.4) and boast a formidable expected goals (xG) per match of 2.5, significantly higher than Göztepe's 2.0. Defensively, the home side is also more robust, conceding an xGA of just 0.9 per match compared to Göztepe's 1.7. With such a foundation, the probability model favoring Fenerbahçe at 75% seems reasonable.

Given these factors, the most likely scorelines of 2-1 and 2-0 are logical projections. The model's lean towards over 2.5 goals at 69% reflects the home side's attacking prowess, while a 62% chance of both teams scoring accounts for Göztepe's penchant for direct, opportunistic bursts. A 2-1 victory for Fenerbahçe appears the most plausible outcome, with the visitors likely to find the net but ultimately fall short.

While not a guarantee, the numbers support the hosts' continued dominance at home in this encounter.

Fenerbahçe

Form LDWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #3xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

Milan SkriniarCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
Ismail YuksekCMxG 0.45 · xT 0.08
Mattéo Elias Kenzo Guendouzi OliéCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.18

Göztepe

Form LDDWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #15xT #13xP/match #4Points #13

Key players

Rhaldney Norberto Simião GomesCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.07
André Henrique da Silva MartinsFxG 0.59 · xT 0.04
Novatus MiroshiCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Fenerbahçe – Göztepe

Predicted score matrix

Göztepe →

Fenerbahçe →

0–03.0%

0–12.9%

0–21.8%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–06.6%

1–17.9%

1–24.3%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.6%

2–08.4%

2–19.4%

2–25.3%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–06.9%

3–17.7%

3–24.4%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.6%

4+–07.6%

4+–18.5%

4+–24.8%

4+–31.8%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-19%
2.2-08%
3.1-18%
4.3-18%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,46–1,13

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+29%

Under 2,531%

@2.45

Over 2,569%

@1.51EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fenerbahçe to win75%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fenerbahçe to win75%
Over 2.5 goals69%
N'Golo Kanté to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals69%
N'Golo Kanté to score35%
Alex Matos to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.529% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
Over 4.529% probability@4.05NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
Over 3.548% probability@2.30BetsafeEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fenerbahçe	X	2 · Göztepe
BetMGM UK	EV+ 5% 1.40	4.75	5.75
Betsafe	1.32	5.05	8.70
LeoVegas	EV+ 2% 1.36	4.90	6.75
Nordicbet	1.32	5.05	8.70

Odds updated 24 Oct, 19:37

Odds movement

1-1 %

70 %65 %

1.38 → 1.36

X+2 %

21 %16 %

4.80 → 4.90

2+4 %

16 %11 %

6.50 → 6.75

Over 2,50 %

65 %60 %

1.48 → 1.48

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Fenerbahçe 1Draw 3Göztepe 0

Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

Key facts

Fenerbahce come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Fenerbahce win 72% of their home matches all-time (39 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fenerbahçe

Göztepe

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fenerbahçe (22–6)

Göztepe (17–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fenerbahçe

Göztepe

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fenerbahçe

Göztepe

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fenerbahçe	Göztepe
Points	16	9
xPoints	16.3	13.4
xG per match	2.5	2
xGA per match	0.9	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.47	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.32

Playing style	Fenerbahçe	Göztepe
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.36
Field tilt	0.61	0.4
xT per match	1.4	0.84
xTA per match	0.91	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	25	35
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.31
Entries into the box per match	19	12
Entries into the box against	10	12
Pass completion %	0.83	0.64
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.62
Passes per match	446	207
Passes against per match	343	348
Switches of play per match	31.7	16.5
Long balls per match	36	28

Set pieces	Fenerbahçe	Göztepe
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.03
Corners per match	6.3	4.8
Corners against per match	3.6	4.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.49
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.63

Other	Fenerbahçe	Göztepe
Throw-in control	0.83	0.71

The goalkeepers	Ederson Santana de Moraes (Fenerbahçe)	Arda Ozcimen (Göztepe)
Saves	25	13
Save %	86%	72%
xG prevented	79%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fenerbahçe

Fixtures, form & tips

Göztepe

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe according to our model?

The model gives Fenerbahçe a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fenerbahçe 75%, draw 14%, Göztepe 11%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 69% and under at 31%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe?

The model expects 2.46 goals (xG) for Fenerbahçe and 1.13 for Göztepe, 3.58 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Fenerbahçe or draw (1X) 89%, Göztepe or draw (X2) 25% and no draw (12) 86%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.