Dinamo City vs Auda: Prediction & Odds (13 Aug 2026)

Conference League13 August 202623°16 km/h

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Dinamo City

4–0

Auda

The model's lean: 1 · Dinamo City (59%)

1 · Dinamo City 59%X 21%20% Auda · 2

59%

21%

20%

Analysis: Dinamo City – Auda

Marcus Johansson · 11 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

A 59% probability leans towards Dinamo City as the likely victors in this Conference League clash. With expected goals standing at 1.86 for Dinamo City against FK Auda's 0.95, the numbers tell a compelling story of home dominance. While the most likely scorelines suggest a tight affair — 1-1 and 1-0 both at 11% — the odds seem tilted in favor of a Dinamo City clean sheet, with a 2-0 finish not far behind at 10%.

Dinamo City enters the fray with momentum, bolstered by a model that points squarely in their direction. FK Auda, with a mere 20% chance of nabbing a win, appears the clear underdog. The weather seems to be playing ball, with nothing reported that might dampen the scoring spirits or skew the expected goal tally. This leaves the fast-paced, attack-heavy play style of Dinamo City unimpeded, ready to exploit FK Auda's defensive frailties.

FK Auda, however, will not be written off entirely. Despite their underdog status, a 52% chance of both teams finding the net keeps things interesting. But make no mistake, the scales are firmly tipped toward Dinamo City, reflecting their superior form and tactical prowess. The over 2.5 goals marker teeters at 53%, suggesting goals might just flow in the right conditions, though it's a close call.

Dinamo City stands out as the value bet here, with 1.82 odds offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model's 59% conviction in their favor gives punters a sweet 7% edge. If you're looking for a sharp betting angle, this is where your money should go — riding the Dinamo City wave as they play host with confidence and a statistical edge that’s hard to ignore.

Dinamo City

Auda

Form DL

Final score

4 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Dinamo City 59% · Draw 21% · Auda 20%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - KS Dinamo TiranaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,22fair 6,230 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FK AudaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,42fair 23,56-47 %

Miss

Match prediction: Dinamo City – Auda

Predicted score matrix

Auda →

Dinamo City →

0–06.3%

0–15.5%

0–22.7%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.9%

1–111.0%

1–25.1%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.4%

2–19.9%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.4%

3–16.1%

3–22.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.6%

4+–14.3%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.3-06%

Expected goals

1,86–0,95

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@1.88

Over 2,553%

@1.97EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Dinamo City to win59%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Dinamo City to win59%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Cătălin Ionuț Cîrjan to score37%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Cătălin Ionuț Cîrjan to score37%
Moussa Ouedraogo to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Dinamo City59% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
1 · Dinamo City59% probability@1.98BetssonEV+17%reference odds
1 · Dinamo City59% probability@1.98NordicbetEV+17%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Dinamo City	X	2 · Auda
Betsafe	EV+ 17% 1.98	3.40	3.45
Betsson	EV+ 17% 1.98	3.40	3.45
Nordicbet	EV+ 17% 1.98	3.40	3.45
Pinnacle	EV+ 12% 1.90	3.18	3.91

Odds updated 13 Aug, 11:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Dinamo City win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 2.03 to 1.90 (−6%).

1-6 %

53 %43 %

2.03 → 1.90

X+2 %

33 %23 %

3.11 → 3.18

2+11 %

29 %19 %

3.53 → 3.91

Over 2,5-1 %

53 %43 %

1.98 → 1.97

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2023

Auda (2–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Auda

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Auda

The goalkeepers	Dinamo City	Roberts Ozols (Auda)
Saves	–	9
Save %	–	64%
xG prevented	–	20%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Dinamo City

Fixtures, form & tips

Auda

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dinamo City vs Auda according to our model?

The model gives Dinamo City a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dinamo City 59%, draw 21%, Auda 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.