Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS Prediction: Away win 38% (22 Oct 2026)

Conference League22 October 2026

Läs på svenska

Borac Banja LukaLow block & direct

KuPSCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · KuPS (38%)Soft draw

1 · Borac Banja Luka 34%X 29%38% KuPS · 2

34%

29%

38%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS (Conference League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Borac Banja Luka win 34%, draw 29%, KuPS win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Borac Banja Luka 1.11, KuPS 1.24. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Borac Banja Luka or draw 62%, KuPS or draw 66%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Borac Banja Luka – KuPS

Oscar Nilsson · 20 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

With KuPS coming off three consecutive losses, one might be tempted to overlook them. But their recent slump belies the deeper numbers: the Finnish side consistently creates far more chances than Borac Banja Luka. The home side's playing style is defensive and direct, which might keep things tight but struggles in generating opportunities, as reflected in their paltry 0.22 xG per match. In contrast, KuPS boasts a robust 2.3 xG per match, indicating their ability to carve out goal-scoring chances.

The expected goals for this matchup flirt with balance—1.11 for the hosts and 1.24 for the visitors. However, the model slightly favors KuPS with a 38% win probability. Factor in the small sample size of previous head-to-heads, and the current form seems more telling. Borac's defense, leaking an xGA of 4.1 per match, will be tested by KuPS's counter-attacking prowess and proficiency with crosses.

Looking at the odds, KuPS at 3.95 with Betsafe and Nordicbet emerges as a value bet due to the model's 38% win probability. With such numbers, there's a noteworthy 49% edge according to the model. LeoVegas also presents value at 3.65, albeit with a slightly lower edge. While a narrow win for the visitors, such as 0-1, seems plausible, the most common scoreline prediction is a 1-1 draw at 13%.

In terms of goals, the lean is towards the under 2.5, given the 42% probability of seeing more than two goals. A match likely to be defined by tight defensive play and counter-attacks, it's all about finding the edge. And right now, that edge seems to lie with backing KuPS to snap their losing streak at those enticing odds.

Borac Banja Luka

Form WDDLL

League ranking xG #78xGA #78xT #67xP/match #80Points #76

KuPS

Form DDLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #76xT #18xP/match #55Points #67

Key players

Clinton AntwiLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
Doni ArifiCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Ibrahim CisséCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Borac Banja Luka – KuPS

Predicted score matrix

KuPS →

Borac Banja Luka →

0–09.9%

0–111.4%

0–27.3%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.1%

1–113.5%

1–28.2%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–05.9%

2–17.3%

2–24.5%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.2%

3–12.7%

3–21.7%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,11–1,24

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.84EV+6%

Over 2,542%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance KuPS or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance KuPS or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Jaime José Moreno Ciorciari to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Sandi Ogrinec to score26%
Valentín Román Gasc to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · KuPS38% probability@4.59PinnacleEV+73%reference odds
2 · KuPS38% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+60%reference odds
2 · KuPS38% probability@4.25NordicbetEV+60%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Borac Banja Luka	X	2 · KuPS
Betsafe	1.78	3.45	EV+ 60% 4.25
LeoVegas	1.80	EV+ 2% 3.55	EV+ 58% 4.20
Nordicbet	1.78	3.45	EV+ 60% 4.25
Pinnacle	1.81	EV+ 2% 3.56	EV+ 73% 4.59

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:08

Odds movement

1-4 %

55 %50 %

1.88 → 1.81

X+2 %

29 %24 %

3.48 → 3.56

2+11 %

24 %19 %

4.14 → 4.59

Over 2,5+4 %

51 %46 %

1.93 → 2.00

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

KuPS have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

KuPS

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Borac Banja Luka (1–2)

KuPS (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Borac Banja Luka

KuPS

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Borac Banja Luka

KuPS

The teams in numbers

Performance	Borac Banja Luka	KuPS
Points	0	0
xPoints	0.1	1
xG per match	0.22	2.3
xGA per match	4.1	3.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0	0.57
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	1.4

Playing style	Borac Banja Luka	KuPS
Build-up efficiency	0.25	0.36
Field tilt	0.15	0.39
xT per match	0.44	1.3
xTA per match	2.2	2.3
Won balls, offensive half	12	22
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.16	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.2
Entries into the box per match	6	14
Entries into the box against	24	19
Pass completion %	0.78	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.73
Passes per match	319	308
Passes against per match	584	392
Switches of play per match	20.3	22.9
Long balls per match	24	21

Set pieces	Borac Banja Luka	KuPS
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.02
Corners per match	0	8
Corners against per match	11.2	6
xG per corner	0	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.67

Other	Borac Banja Luka	KuPS
Throw-in control	0.53	0.86

The goalkeepers	Mladen Jurkas (Borac Banja Luka)	Johannes Kreidl (KuPS)
Saves	8	4
Save %	80%	67%
xG prevented	52%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Borac Banja Luka

Fixtures, form & tips

KuPS

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS according to our model?

The model gives KuPS a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Borac Banja Luka 34%, draw 29%, KuPS 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS?

The model expects 1.11 goals (xG) for Borac Banja Luka and 1.24 for KuPS, 2.36 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Borac Banja Luka or draw (1X) 62%, KuPS or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.