Győri ETO vs Riga FC: Prediction & Odds (13 Aug 2026)

Conference League13 August 2026

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Győri ETOBalanced & physical

1–1

Riga FCPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Riga FC (48%)

1 · Győri ETO 30%X 22%48% Riga FC · 2

30%

22%

48%

Analysis: Győri ETO – Riga FC

Oscar Nilsson · 11 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Riga FC's possession-centric style meets Gyori ETO's balanced approach in a clash that sees the visitors favored, albeit without overwhelming dominance. With a 48% chance of victory according to the model, Riga FC has the upper hand. The last and only head-to-head encounter saw Riga FC secure a win, but with just one match in this sample, its significance is limited. Instead, current form and expected goals should steer our expectations.

Despite Gyori ETO's slight edge in points and xPoints, Riga FC's resilience in defense stands out. Their xGA per match sits at a stingy 0.08, indicating a well-drilled backline that could thwart Gyori's attempts to break through. Gyori ETO, however, remains competitive, with a nearly balanced xG per match of 1.4.

Riga FC might dominate possession, yet Gyori ETO's physicality could disrupt their rhythm. The expected goals paint a picture of a closely fought contest — 1.27 for Gyori and 1.55 for Riga. The probabilities suggest a narrow Riga victory, with 1-2 or 0-1 as plausible outcomes. With a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, there's a hint of an open game, but caution prevails due to the strength of Riga’s defense.

Gyori ETO may find some solace in their home advantage, but Riga FC's odds of 2.82 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, present exceptional value for those siding with the model's 48% prediction. This 36% edge positions Riga as an intriguing pick for bettors with an eye for value. As the match unfolds, the calculated edge and disciplined structure of Riga FC might just tip the scales in their favor.

Győri ETO

Form WLWDL

League ranking xG #20xGA #12xT #22xP/match #16Points #12

Key players

Nfansu NjieFxG 0.22 · xT 0.06
Daniel StefuljLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.27
Milan VitalisCMxG 0.18 · xT -0.01

Riga FC

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #16xGA #1xT #21xP/match #3Points #15

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Győri ETO 30% · Draw 22% · Riga FC 48%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Riga FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,11fair 7,94+2 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Győri ETOBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,19fair 11,86-39 %

Miss

Match prediction: Győri ETO – Riga FC

Predicted score matrix

Riga FC →

Győri ETO →

0–06.3%

0–18.9%

0–27.2%

0–33.7%

0–4+2.0%

1–07.2%

1–112.1%

1–29.1%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.6%

2–04.8%

2–17.4%

2–25.8%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.6%

3–02.0%

3–13.1%

3–22.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-17%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,27–1,55

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@1.99

Over 2,554%

@1.76

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Riga FC to win48%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Riga FC to win48%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Muhammed Cray Badamosi to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Muhammed Cray Badamosi to score26%
Karl Gameni Wassom to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Riga FC48% probability@2.96PinnacleEV+43%reference odds
2 · Riga FC48% probability@2.82BetsafeEV+36%reference odds
2 · Riga FC48% probability@2.82BetssonEV+36%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Győri ETO	X	2 · Riga FC
Betsafe	2.22	3.50	EV+ 36% 2.82
Betsson	2.22	3.50	EV+ 36% 2.82
Nordicbet	2.22	3.50	EV+ 36% 2.82
Pinnacle	2.21	3.28	EV+ 43% 2.96

Odds updated 13 Aug, 11:35

Odds movement

1+1 %

43 %38 %

2.18 → 2.21

X+1 %

31 %26 %

3.26 → 3.28

2-2 %

34 %29 %

3.03 → 2.96

Over 2,50 %

56 %51 %

1.76 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Győri ETO 0Draw 0Riga FC 1

Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Conference League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Győri ETO

Riga FC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Győri ETO (7–4)

Riga FC (1–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Győri ETO

Riga FC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Győri ETO

Riga FC

The teams in numbers

Performance	Győri ETO	Riga FC
Points	4	3
xPoints	4.1	2.3
xG per match	1.4	1.5
xGA per match	1.3	0.08
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.45	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.03

Playing style	Győri ETO	Riga FC
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.37
Field tilt	0.49	0.66
xT per match	0.86	0.86
xTA per match	0.89	0.21
Won balls, offensive half	25	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.23
Entries into the box per match	6	17
Entries into the box against	14	5
Pass completion %	0.81	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.71
Passes per match	408	480
Passes against per match	443	269
Switches of play per match	36.5	38.1
Long balls per match	35	40

Set pieces	Győri ETO	Riga FC
xG from free kicks	0	0.08
Corners per match	2.3	8
Corners against per match	5.7	1
xG per corner	0.02	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.03	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	1

Other	Győri ETO	Riga FC
Throw-in control	0.72	0.79

The goalkeepers	Samuel Petras (Győri ETO)	Frenks Orols (Riga FC)
Saves	13	2
Save %	87%	100%
xG prevented	85%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Győri ETO

Fixtures, form & tips

Riga FC

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Győri ETO vs Riga FC according to our model?

The model gives Riga FC a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Győri ETO 30%, draw 22%, Riga FC 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.