St. Gallen vs Sheriff Tiraspol: Prediction & Odds (13 Aug 2026)

Conference League13 August 202622°8 km/h

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St. GallenPossession control

5–1

Sheriff TiraspolLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · St. Gallen (62%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sheriff Tiraspol @ 9.80 (+80 %)

1 · St. Gallen 62%X 19%18% Sheriff Tiraspol · 2

62%

19%

18%

Analysis: St. Gallen – Sheriff Tiraspol

Oscar Nilsson · 11 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Eleven percent. That's the likelihood of a 2-0 victory for St. Gallen, according to the model. In the wacky world of probabilistic football forecasts, that's as close to a pat on the back as a team can get. St. Gallen have been on a steady scoring streak across eight consecutive league outings. Their possession-based style complements their expected goals of 2.03 in this matchup, suggesting they'll seize control against FC Sheriff Tiraspol's more defensive and direct approach.

St. Gallen boasts a solitary head-to-head victory since 2023, a sample too small to wield much predictive power. Yet, their form and expected goals metrics bolster their case. While they've netted 2.2 xG per match, FC Sheriff Tiraspol, despite a commendable 1.9 xG per match, seem a step behind. The xGA per match also slightly favors St. Gallen, pegging their defense as a smidgen tighter. With the model leaning towards the home side with a 62% chance of victory, the numbers are difficult to argue against.

FC Sheriff Tiraspol's hopes hinge on an 18% chance of winning, but there's a curious twist in the betting markets. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all price them at odds of 8.3, which the model suggests is a whopping 53% edge on what should be their true odds. It's a long shot, but in terms of value, it sings louder than you'd expect from an underdog.

The expected goals tilt towards an open game, with a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score landing at 53%. Weather's absence from the facts suggests the likelihood of a straightforward attacking affair. With everything pointing toward a St. Gallen win, a tidy 2-0 seems the safest bet. But if you're hunting value, those eye-catching 8.3 odds on FC Sheriff Tiraspol might just be worth a cheeky flutter.

St. Gallen

Form WDLDW

League ranking xG #8xGA #26xT #2xP/match #33Points #13

Key players

Hugo VandermerschRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.91
Chima OkorojiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.30
Joel RuizCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.47

Sheriff Tiraspol

Form LL

League ranking xG #9xGA #30xT #12xP/match #4Points #27

Key players

Raí Lopes de OliveiraLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.56
Dhoraso Moreo KlasFxG 0.18 · xT 0.02
Arli PergjoniCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.01

Final score

5 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: St. Gallen 62% · Draw 19% · Sheriff Tiraspol 18%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Sheriff TiraspolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 26,68fair 25,46+5 %

Miss

Matchresultat - St. GallenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,60fair 5,40-33 %

Hit

Match prediction: St. Gallen – Sheriff Tiraspol

Predicted score matrix

Sheriff Tiraspol →

St. Gallen →

0–05.5%

0–14.6%

0–22.3%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.3%

1–110.1%

1–24.6%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.7%

2–19.9%

2–24.6%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.2%

3–16.7%

3–23.1%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–05.8%

4+–15.4%

4+–22.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.1-110%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,03–0,93

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.52EV+9%

Over 2,557%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

St. Gallen to win62%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

St. Gallen to win62%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Aliou Badara Balde to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Aliou Badara Balde to score31%
Mihailo Stevanović to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sheriff Tiraspol18% probability@9.80BetsafeEV+80%reference odds
2 · Sheriff Tiraspol18% probability@9.80BetssonEV+80%reference odds
2 · Sheriff Tiraspol18% probability@9.80NordicbetEV+80%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Gallen	X	2 · Sheriff Tiraspol
Betsafe	1.29	4.80	EV+ 80% 9.80
Betsson	1.29	4.80	EV+ 80% 9.80
Nordicbet	1.29	4.80	EV+ 80% 9.80
Pinnacle	1.28	EV+ 1% 5.22	EV+ 48% 8.07

Odds updated 13 Aug, 11:35

Odds movement

10 %

74 %69 %

1.29 → 1.28

X+1 %

20 %15 %

5.16 → 5.22

20 %

14 %9 %

8.06 → 8.07

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

St. Gallen 1Draw 0Sheriff Tiraspol 0

Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Conference League data since 2023.

Key facts

St. Gallen have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

St. Gallen

Sheriff Tiraspol

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

St. Gallen (3–1)

Sheriff Tiraspol (1–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

St. Gallen

Sheriff Tiraspol

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

St. Gallen

Sheriff Tiraspol

The teams in numbers

Performance	St. Gallen	Sheriff Tiraspol
Points	3	0
xPoints	0.7	2
xG per match	2.2	1.9
xGA per match	1.9	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.63	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.63

Playing style	St. Gallen	Sheriff Tiraspol
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.71	0.29
xT per match	2.6	1.3
xTA per match	1.3	2.6
Won balls, offensive half	37	22
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.44	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.52	0.26
Entries into the box per match	25	14
Entries into the box against	14	25
Pass completion %	0.79	0.55
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.56
Passes per match	431	146
Passes against per match	146	431
Switches of play per match	32.8	13.9
Long balls per match	33	29

Set pieces	St. Gallen	Sheriff Tiraspol
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	8	6
Corners against per match	6	8
xG per corner	0.02	0.15
xGA per corner against	0.15	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.75	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.25

Other	St. Gallen	Sheriff Tiraspol
Throw-in control	0.91	0.68

The goalkeepers	Lukas Watkowiak (St. Gallen)	Emil Tîmbur (Sheriff Tiraspol)
Saves	6	2
Save %	86%	40%
xG prevented	84%	18%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

St. Gallen

Fixtures, form & tips

Sheriff Tiraspol

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Gallen vs Sheriff Tiraspol according to our model?

The model gives St. Gallen a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Gallen 62%, draw 19%, Sheriff Tiraspol 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.