01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance VVV-Venlo or draw (X2)66%
- Over 1.5 goals88%
Eerste Divisie12°15,6 mm25 km/h
Läs på svenska
Jong AjaxPossession controlvs
VVV-VenloCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · VVV-Venlo (41%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.98 (+1 %)
Jong Ajax vs VVV-Venlo · Eerste Divisie
1 · Jong Ajax 35%X 23%41% VVV-Venlo · 2
35%
23%
41%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Jong Ajax – VVV-Venlo
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
VVV-Venlo's scoring streak, netting in 9 straight league outings, suggests a potency that could trouble Jong Ajax, whose possession-based approach is threatened by Venlo's adept counter-attacks and crossing. With VVV favored in the probabilities at 41% to claim victory, their tactical setup might just exploit the hosts' defensive vulnerabilities, evidenced by Jong Ajax's 1.7 xGA per match.
The model points to a competitive clash with a nod towards a 1-2 VVV win, backed by their slight xPoints and xG edges. Despite historical head-to-head results showing VVV's dominance with three wins in four recent matches, the limited sample size means current form and expected goals carry more weight. The rain might temper goal expectations, yet an over 2.5 total remains likely at 70%, with both teams predicted to score.
For the betting angle, under 3.5 goals at odds 1.98 with either Betsafe or Nordicbet presents slight value, holding a 51% probability. While no large edge exists, the odds and expected match dynamics suggest a potential path for cautious bettors to consider, given the weather's moderating effect on the likely scoreline.
Jong AjaxForm DWLLD
League ranking xG #14xGA #15xT #15xP/match #18Points #17
Key players
- Emre ÜnüvarRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.11
- Pharell NashLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.36
- Mark VerkuijlCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
VVV-VenloForm WLWWL
League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #13xP/match #11Points #4
Key players
- Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.35 · xT 0.00
- Nassim Ait MouhouLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.10
- Edhy Yvan ZulianiRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.29
Match prediction: Jong Ajax – VVV-Venlo
Predicted score matrix
VVV-Venlo →
Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.9%
0–14.8%
0–24.9%
0–33.2%
0–4+2.4%
1
1–04.3%
1–19.0%
1–28.4%
1–35.4%
1–4+4.0%
2
2–03.9%
2–17.4%
2–27.1%
2–34.6%
2–4+3.4%
3
3–02.2%
3–14.2%
3–24.1%
3–32.6%
3–4+1.9%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–12.6%
4+–22.5%
4+–31.6%
4+–4+1.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-19%
- 2.1-28%
- 3.2-17%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.1-35%
Expected goals
1,71–1,93
Both teams to score
70%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,60
19%
218%
321%
419%
5+30%
Under 2,530%
@3.35
Over 2,570%
@1.31
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance VVV-Venlo or draw (X2)66%
- Over 2.5 goals70%
- Nassim Ait Mouhou to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score70%
- Over 2.5 goals70%
- Nassim Ait Mouhou to score26%
- Mark Thomas Willem Verkuijl to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.551% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- Under 3.551% probability@1.98NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
- Under 4.570% probability@1.43BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Jong Ajax | X | 2 · VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.80 | 3.85 | 2.15 |
| LeoVegas | 2.75 | 4.00 | 2.10 |
| Nordicbet | 2.80 | 3.85 | 2.15 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 16:35
Odds movement
1+3 %
35 %30 %
2.72 → 2.80
X0 %
26 %21 %
3.85 → 3.85
2-3 %
46 %41 %
2.22 → 2.15
Over 2,5-4 %
73 %68 %
1.35 → 1.29
Nordicbet · 4 recorded price levels · 04/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesJong Ajax 1Draw 0VVV-Venlo 3
Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- VVV Venlo have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jong Ajax
VVV-Venlo
Jong Ajax (13–22)
VVV-Venlo (21–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jong Ajax
VVV-Venlo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jong Ajax
VVV-Venlo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Jong Ajax | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 15 |
| xPoints | 10 | 11 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | Jong Ajax | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 362 | 320 |
| Passes against per match | 307 | 357 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.4 | 26.4 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Jong Ajax | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.79 |
| Other | Jong Ajax | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Joeri Heerkens (Jong Ajax) | Youri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 27 |
| Save % | 60% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 32% | 32% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Volendam – Vitesse9 October 2026
- TOP Oss – Helmond Sport9 October 2026
- Almere City – FC Eindhoven9 October 2026
- Jong AZ – Den Bosch9 October 2026
- Roda – Jong PSV9 October 2026
- Dordrecht – Emmen9 October 2026
- Heracles Almelo – Waalwijk9 October 2026
- NAC Breda – MVV Maastricht9 October 2026
- De Graafschap – Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jong Ajax vs VVV-Venlo according to our model?
The model gives VVV-Venlo a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong Ajax 35%, draw 23%, VVV-Venlo 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 70% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.