Heracles Almelo vs Waalwijk Prediction: Home win 57% (9 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie9 October 202610°14,4 mm27 km/h

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Heracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crosses

WaalwijkPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Heracles Almelo (57%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.72 (+9 %)

1 · Heracles Almelo 57%X 24%19% Waalwijk · 2

57%

24%

19%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Heracles Almelo – Waalwijk

Sofia Andersson · 4 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Heracles Almelo's 57% win probability casts them as clear favorites against Waalwijk, whose chances stand at a modest 19%. Despite the home side's advantage on paper, the anticipated scoreline is tight, with a 1-1 draw being the most likely outcome at 11%. The hosts' tactical preference for counterattacks and crosses should test Waalwijk's high-press defense, suggesting a strategic clash more intriguing than their current standings imply.

With 22 points compared to Waalwijk's 14, and superior xPoints of 18.6 versus 12.3, Heracles's form edges out their visitors. However, their actual performance has outstripped those underlying metrics, hinting at possible volatility. Heracles' higher expected goals per match (2.7) contrasted with Waalwijk's 1.3 reflects their attacking ambition, though Waalwijk’s ability to retain possession might disrupt this pattern.

Defensively, Heracles's expected goals against per match (0.96) is lower than Waalwijk’s (1.1), underscoring a slight defensive edge at home. Yet, an over 2.5 goals probability of 60% signals potential for a goal-rich encounter, though only narrowly. The 61% chance of both teams scoring further supports an offensive spectacle.

The real betting angle emerges with value in unexpected places. Despite the likelihood of an open game, under 2.5 goals offers an enticing edge. At odds of 2.72 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 2.7 with LeoVegas, the model's 40% rating presents a significant 8-9% edge. This subtle contrarian play speaks to the potential of a tightly contested match, where defensive resilience might just eclipse attacking flair.

Heracles Almelo

Form WWLWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #2xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Sem SchepermanCMxG 0.29 · xT 0.02
Damon MiraniCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
Djevencio Djovairo van der KustCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.18

Waalwijk

Form WWWLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #2xT #6xP/match #12Points #6

Key players

Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.36
Faissal Al MazyaniRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
Liam van GelderenCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Heracles Almelo – Waalwijk

Predicted score matrix

Waalwijk →

Heracles Almelo →

0–04.8%

0–15.4%

0–23.7%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.7%

1–07.9%

1–110.8%

1–26.7%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.5%

2–19.6%

2–26.1%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–04.6%

3–15.8%

3–23.7%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–03.2%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.6%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,83–1,28

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.72EV+9%

Over 2,560%

@1.43

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Heracles Almelo to win57%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Heracles Almelo to win57%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Luka Kulenović to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Luka Kulenović to score22%
Tim van de Loo to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.540% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
Under 2.540% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
Under 2.540% probability@2.70LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Heracles Almelo	X	2 · Waalwijk
Betsafe	1.55	EV+ 2% 4.30	4.90
LeoVegas	1.52	EV+ 7% 4.50	4.90
Nordicbet	1.55	EV+ 2% 4.30	4.90

Odds updated 4 Oct, 14:35

Odds movement

1-1 %

63 %58 %

1.53 → 1.52

X0 %

23 %18 %

4.50 → 4.50

2+7 %

22 %17 %

4.60 → 4.90

Over 2,50 %

68 %63 %

1.42 → 1.42

LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Heracles Almelo

Waalwijk

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Heracles Almelo (28–12)

Waalwijk (19–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Heracles Almelo

Waalwijk

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Heracles Almelo

Waalwijk

The teams in numbers

Performance	Heracles Almelo	Waalwijk
Points	22	14
xPoints	18.6	12.3
xG per match	2.7	1.3
xGA per match	0.96	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.28

Playing style	Heracles Almelo	Waalwijk
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.69	0.62
xT per match	1.9	1.4
xTA per match	0.87	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	35	27
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.25
Entries into the box per match	18	18
Entries into the box against	9	10
Pass completion %	0.72	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.71
Passes per match	331	363
Passes against per match	265	344
Switches of play per match	24.2	26.9
Long balls per match	37	37

Set pieces	Heracles Almelo	Waalwijk
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.08
Corners per match	8.2	3.9
Corners against per match	3.3	4.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.51
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.71

Other	Heracles Almelo	Waalwijk
Throw-in control	0.73	0.7

The goalkeepers	Fabian de Keijzer (Heracles Almelo)	Niek Schiks (Waalwijk)
Saves	20	19
Save %	63%	68%
xG prevented	38%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Heracles Almelo

Fixtures, form & tips

Waalwijk

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Heracles Almelo vs Waalwijk according to our model?

The model gives Heracles Almelo a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heracles Almelo 57%, draw 24%, Waalwijk 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.