TOP Oss vs Helmond Sport Prediction: Home win 39% (9 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie9 October 202610°12,3 mm27 km/h

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TOP OssLow block & direct

Helmond SportLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · TOP Oss (39%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+21 %)

1 · TOP Oss 39%X 27%34% Helmond Sport · 2

39%

27%

34%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: TOP Oss – Helmond Sport

Sofia Andersson · 4 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The model leans towards TOP Oss, with a slight 39% edge, hinting at a tight contest against Helmond Sport, who have a 34% chance of taking the win. The expected goals are almost level, TOP Oss at 1.34 and Helmond Sport at 1.35, pointing to a balanced encounter. Despite Helmond's historical edge in head-to-head meetings, winning 2 of the last 6, the form and metrics suggest a closer battle this time.

With both teams showcasing a low defence and direct playing style, the weather could play a crucial role in suppressing goals. The expected 12.3 mm of rain may dampen attacking efforts, aligning with a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. The close xPoints race — 13.4 for the hosts versus 13.2 for the visitors — suggests the margins could be thin.

TOP Oss show slight superiority in certain metrics, such as xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.18 vs Helmond's 0.17), and xGA per match, both at 1.6, but with better defensive efficiency in high-pressure phases. This adds a layer of intrigue to the encounter, as Helmond's xG per match edges theirs slightly at 1.3 compared to 1.2.

The most probable scoreline is 1-1, at 13%, with equally likely outcomes of 0-1 and 1-0 at 9% each. This highlights the unpredictability of the match, emphasizing a slight nod towards a draw or a narrow win either way. Bettors might find value in backing the under 0.5 goals market, with odds of 17.0 at Betsafe and Nordicbet offering a 21% edge. Additionally, the under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.18 with Betsafe offers a solid 8% edge based on model calculations.

TOP Oss

Form LLWLW

League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #16xP/match #5Points #16

Key players

Franslyn NsingiFxG 0.39 · xT 0.02
Delano VianelloCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Mauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho HinokeLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.13

Helmond Sport

Form WWLLD

League ranking xG #15xGA #12xT #19xP/match #8Points #15

Key players

Livio CiceroFxG 0.29 · xT 0.19
Mauro LenaertsFxG 0.63 · xT 0.02
Xander Jan Van der VeldeLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: TOP Oss – Helmond Sport

Predicted score matrix

Helmond Sport →

TOP Oss →

0–07.1%

0–18.8%

0–26.2%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.3%

1–08.7%

1–112.6%

1–28.3%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.1%

2–18.2%

2–25.6%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.7%

3–13.7%

3–22.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,34–1,35

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,550%

@2.18EV+8%

Over 2,550%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance TOP Oss or draw (1X)63%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance TOP Oss or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Franslyn Nsingi to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Franslyn Nsingi to score27%
Michel-Simon Ludwig to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.57% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
Under 0.57% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
Under 2.550% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · TOP Oss	X	2 · Helmond Sport
Betsafe	2.12	3.45	EV+ 3% 3.05
LeoVegas	2.08	3.50	EV+ 7% 3.15
Nordicbet	2.12	3.45	EV+ 3% 3.05

Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 3 October — the odds have shortened from 1.73 to 1.61 (−6%).

1-5 %

45 %40 %

2.20 → 2.08

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.45 → 3.50

2+9 %

33 %28 %

2.90 → 3.15

Over 2,5-6 %

58 %53 %

1.73 → 1.61

LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

TOP Oss 1Draw 3Helmond Sport 2

Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

Helmond Sport dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

TOP Oss

Helmond Sport

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

TOP Oss (12–14)

Helmond Sport (15–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

TOP Oss

Helmond Sport

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

TOP Oss

Helmond Sport

The teams in numbers

Performance	TOP Oss	Helmond Sport
Points	9	9
xPoints	13.4	13.2
xG per match	1.2	1.3
xGA per match	1.6	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.24

Playing style	TOP Oss	Helmond Sport
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.29
Field tilt	0.31	0.37
xT per match	0.98	0.93
xTA per match	1.5	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	22	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.22
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	18	18
Pass completion %	0.65	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.59	0.66
Passes per match	223	308
Passes against per match	458	413
Switches of play per match	23.8	25.1
Long balls per match	41	33

Set pieces	TOP Oss	Helmond Sport
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.03
Corners per match	4.1	3.6
Corners against per match	7.5	6.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.3	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.37

Other	TOP Oss	Helmond Sport
Throw-in control	0.7	0.72

The goalkeepers	Mike Havekotte (TOP Oss)	Menno Bergsen (Helmond Sport)
Saves	36	42
Save %	75%	74%
xG prevented	53%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

TOP Oss

Fixtures, form & tips

Helmond Sport

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins TOP Oss vs Helmond Sport according to our model?

The model gives TOP Oss a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: TOP Oss 39%, draw 27%, Helmond Sport 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.