Almere City vs FC Eindhoven Prediction: Home win 61% (9 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie9 October 202611°14,1 mm28 km/h

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Almere CityLow block & direct

FC EindhovenCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Almere City (61%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 7.30 (+31 %)

1 · Almere City 61%X 21%18% FC Eindhoven · 2

61%

21%

18%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Almere City – FC Eindhoven

Anna Karlsson · 4 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

One issue: xPoints show an edge for Eindhoven (7.5 vs 10.4), which the text omits—this is a notable fact contradicting the narrative of Almere's dominance. Otherwise, all numbers match.

Corrected text:

Two teams, Jong Almere City and FC Eindhoven, face off with little to separate them in recent form. A small sample size in head-to-head matchups, which weighs less than the current season dynamics. Jong Almere holds a slight advantage in points with 12 over Eindhoven's 11, but the expected goals (xG) tell a nuanced story. Almere City generates 1.4 xG per match, surpassing Eindhoven's 0.98, yet both defenses leak goals, with Almere City allowing 1.7 xGA compared to Eindhoven's 1.8. Notably, xPoints favor Eindhoven (10.4) over Almere City (7.5), suggesting Eindhoven may be undervalued relative to underlying performance.

Despite these defensive frailties, the model heavily favors the hosts. Almere City has a 61% chance of victory, with the most likely scorelines pointing to a 2-0 or 2-1 win. When factoring in the expected goals—2.21 for Almere City against a meager 0.90 for the visitors—it's little surprise. Eindhoven's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses will likely struggle against Almere's low defensive line and direct play.

The high probability of over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 53% underscores a potential for goals, yet the weather forecast of 14.1 mm rain could suppress attacking flair, a factor already considered in the model's numbers. Such nuances make this clash intriguing, with Almere City positioned as the likely victor.

For bettors, the sharpest angle lies in the market discrepancies. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer significant value on the under 1.5 goals at odds of 7.3, where the model estimates an 18% probability—a 31% edge. Given the conditions and defensive profiles, backing under 2.5 goals at 3.15 also presents value, with a 25% edge. In a game where Almere is favored, the under-goal markets provide the most compelling opportunities.

Almere City

Form WWLWL

League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #8xP/match #16Points #12

Key players

Emanuel PokuFxG 0.13 · xT 0.19
Ferdy DruijfFxG 0.70 · xT 0.16
Enzo CornelisseCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.20

FC Eindhoven

Form DWWLD

League ranking xG #21xGA #17xT #21xP/match #17Points #13

Key players

Guus BeaumontCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
Mika de JongeCMxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
Rayan BuifrahiCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Almere City – FC Eindhoven

Predicted score matrix

FC Eindhoven →

Almere City →

0–04.7%

0–13.7%

0–21.8%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.6%

1–19.1%

1–24.0%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.9%

2–19.8%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.0%

3–17.2%

3–23.3%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–07.4%

4+–16.7%

4+–23.0%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.2-110%
3.1-010%
4.1-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,21–0,90

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@3.15EV+25%

Over 2,560%

@1.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Almere City to win61%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Almere City to win61%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Ferdy Druijf to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Ferdy Druijf to score33%
Guus Beaumont to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.518% probability@7.30BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
Under 1.518% probability@7.30NordicbetEV+31%reference odds
Under 2.540% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+25%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Almere City	X	2 · FC Eindhoven
Betsafe	1.43	4.55	EV+ 16% 6.30
LeoVegas	1.42	4.70	EV+ 6% 5.75
Nordicbet	1.43	4.55	EV+ 16% 6.30

Odds updated 4 Oct, 13:35

Odds movement

1-1 %

67 %62 %

1.44 → 1.42

X-2 %

22 %17 %

4.80 → 4.70

2+6 %

19 %14 %

5.40 → 5.75

Over 2,5+3 %

72 %67 %

1.31 → 1.35

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Almere City

FC Eindhoven

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Almere City (13–6)

FC Eindhoven (15–19)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Almere City

FC Eindhoven

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Almere City

FC Eindhoven

The teams in numbers

Performance	Almere City	FC Eindhoven
Points	12	11
xPoints	7.5	10.4
xG per match	1.4	0.98
xGA per match	1.7	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.21

Playing style	Almere City	FC Eindhoven
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.39	0.42
xT per match	1.2	0.61
xTA per match	1.4	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	22	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.26
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	16	15
Pass completion %	0.71	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.64
Passes per match	280	286
Passes against per match	373	364
Switches of play per match	24.2	17.8
Long balls per match	37	33

Set pieces	Almere City	FC Eindhoven
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.06
Corners per match	4.7	3.6
Corners against per match	6.5	6.4
xG per corner	0.05	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.53

Other	Almere City	FC Eindhoven
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Wessel Speel (Almere City)	Jort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven)
Saves	25	29
Save %	81%	60%
xG prevented	76%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Almere City

Fixtures, form & tips

FC Eindhoven

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Almere City vs FC Eindhoven according to our model?

The model gives Almere City a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Almere City 61%, draw 21%, FC Eindhoven 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.