Dordrecht vs Emmen Prediction: Away win 51% (9 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie9 October 202612°16,8 mm27 km/h

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DordrechtPossession control

EmmenPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Emmen (51%)

1 · Dordrecht 27%X 22%51% Emmen · 2

27%

22%

51%

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Analysis: Dordrecht – Emmen

Oscar Nilsson · 4 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Emmen's high-pressing approach has been a hallmark of their season, and it shows in the numbers. With an average of 1.8 expected goals per match against Dordrecht's 1.0, the visitors have a clear attacking edge. This disparity is further highlighted by the defensive stats: Dordrecht concedes 1.9 expected goals per match compared to Emmen's 1.1. This trend suggests that Emmen's aggressive style can exploit Dordrecht's vulnerabilities at the back.

Despite Dordrecht's recent head-to-head success, winning three of the last four encounters, this small sample shouldn't overshadow the current form and underlying metrics favoring Emmen. The home side has struggled to translate possession control into effective attacking opportunities, which is evident in their expected points tally of 8.6 compared to Emmen's 14.5.

The model gives Emmen a 51% chance of victory, and with odds of 2.25 available from Betsafe and Nordicbet, there's a substantial 15% value edge for those backing the visitors. A similar opportunity is present with LeoVegas at 2.18 odds, albeit with a slightly lower edge of 11%. These odds reflect a potential mispricing by the market, as Emmen's chances appear more robust than the bookmakers suggest.

The weather forecast of 16.8 mm of rain could dampen the attacking fluidity, but the model already accounts for this, leaving the expectation of goals unchanged. Both teams are predicted to find the net, and the over 2.5 goals sits at a hefty 69%. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 each have a 9% probability, but with Emmen's attacking prowess, a 1-2 victory for the visitors feels plausible.

Ultimately, the sharpest betting angle lies with Emmen to win, offering significant value in the odds market. This is where the numbers point, and it's a rare instance where the underdog pricing doesn't quite align with the statistical probabilities.

Dordrecht

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #20xGA #21xT #12xP/match #21Points #18

Key players

Ayoub OuarghiCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.14
Lorenzo RiccioCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
Stan HenderikxCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09

Emmen

Form WLLWD

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #5xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Nelson Efosa AmadinRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
Luca EverinkRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
Casper StaringCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Dordrecht – Emmen

Predicted score matrix

Emmen →

Dordrecht →

0–03.1%

0–15.3%

0–25.4%

0–33.5%

0–4+2.7%

1–04.3%

1–19.2%

1–28.7%

1–35.7%

1–4+4.3%

2–03.7%

2–17.2%

2–27.0%

2–34.6%

2–4+3.5%

3–02.0%

3–13.9%

3–23.8%

3–32.5%

3–4+1.9%

4+–01.1%

4+–12.2%

4+–22.2%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+1.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-19%
2.1-29%
3.2-17%
4.2-27%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,61–1,95

Both teams to score

69%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

110%

218%

321%

419%

5+29%

Under 2,531%

@2.68

Over 2,569%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Emmen to win51%
Over 1.5 goals87%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Emmen to win51%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Michael John Breij to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score69%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Michael John Breij to score27%
Lorenzo Riccio to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Emmen51% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
2 · Emmen51% probability@2.25NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
2 · Emmen51% probability@2.18LeoVegasEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Dordrecht	X	2 · Emmen
Betsafe	2.75	3.60	EV+ 15% 2.25
LeoVegas	2.75	3.75	EV+ 11% 2.18
Nordicbet	2.75	3.60	EV+ 15% 2.25

Odds updated 4 Oct, 14:35

Odds movement

1-2 %

36 %31 %

2.80 → 2.75

X+1 %

27 %22 %

3.70 → 3.75

2+1 %

45 %40 %

2.15 → 2.18

Over 2,50 %

67 %62 %

1.44 → 1.44

LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Dordrecht 3Draw 0Emmen 1

Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dordrecht

Emmen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Dordrecht (13–24)

Emmen (19–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dordrecht

Emmen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dordrecht

Emmen

The teams in numbers

Performance	Dordrecht	Emmen
Points	8	16
xPoints	8.6	14.5
xG per match	1	1.8
xGA per match	1.9	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.09

Playing style	Dordrecht	Emmen
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.34
Field tilt	0.53	0.63
xT per match	1.1	1.4
xTA per match	1.1	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	22	31
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.34
Entries into the box per match	13	18
Entries into the box against	14	9
Pass completion %	0.77	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.75
Passes per match	356	404
Passes against per match	304	304
Switches of play per match	25.5	24.3
Long balls per match	43	30

Set pieces	Dordrecht	Emmen
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.01
Corners per match	4.7	6.8
Corners against per match	4	2.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.44	0.73

Other	Dordrecht	Emmen
Throw-in control	0.78	0.76

The goalkeepers	Calvin Owen Harm Raatsie (Dordrecht)	Sam Karssies (Emmen)
Saves	26	23
Save %	61%	56%
xG prevented	37%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Dordrecht

Fixtures, form & tips

Emmen

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dordrecht vs Emmen according to our model?

The model gives Emmen a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dordrecht 27%, draw 22%, Emmen 51%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 69% and under at 31%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 69% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.