Volendam vs Vitesse Prediction: Home win 50% (9 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie9 October 202612°13,2 mm31 km/h

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VolendamPossession control

VitesseLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Volendam (50%)

1 · Volendam 50%X 24%25% Vitesse · 2

50%

24%

25%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Volendam – Vitesse

Marcus Johansson · 4 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Volendam's commanding 83% home win rate looms large as they prepare to face Vitesse. Despite a small head-to-head sample, the hosts have won both encounters since 2023, adding confidence to their possession-heavy approach. The model suggests a 50% win probability for Volendam, boosted by expected goals of 2.11 — a clear edge over the visitor's 1.40. Rain is in the forecast, possibly dampening the scoring potential, though the over 2.5 goals still leans heavily at 68%.

Though Vitesse's low defensive block and direct style present a contrasting challenge, their slight lead in points and xPoints hints at competitive resilience. However, the xG per match favors Volendam, and while Vitesse concedes fewer on average, the home side's tactical control could dictate the flow. The most likely scorelines, 2-1 and 1-1, both imply goals, supported by a 67% likelihood for both teams to score.

The smart money points to Volendam, especially with the value found in home odds: 2.22 at Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering a 12% edge, and 2.18 at LeoVegas with a 10% edge. Betting on the hosts capitalizes on both tactical advantage and market inefficiency.

Volendam

Form LWLWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #13xT #11xP/match #13Points #11

Key players

Henk VeermanFxG 0.61 · xT 0.12
Luca BlondeauCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Younes Jaber el MeftahiLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.14

Vitesse

Form WLWLD

League ranking xG #5xGA #10xT #4xP/match #2Points #7

Key players

Ricardo-Felipe SchwarzCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.30
Naoufal BannisFxG 0.79 · xT -0.05
Nathangelo Alexandro MarkeloRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: Volendam – Vitesse

Predicted score matrix

Vitesse →

Volendam →

0–03.2%

0–13.9%

0–22.9%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.7%

1–06.0%

1–19.1%

1–26.2%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.6%

2–19.3%

2–26.5%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.5%

3–04.7%

3–16.6%

3–24.6%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.0%

4+–04.0%

4+–15.7%

4+–24.0%

4+–31.9%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-19%
2.1-19%
3.2-07%
4.3-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

2,11–1,40

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+28%

Under 2,532%

@2.68

Over 2,568%

@1.45

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Volendam to win50%
Over 1.5 goals87%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Volendam to win50%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Reuven Niemeijer to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Reuven Niemeijer to score30%
Omar Achouitar to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Volendam50% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
1 · Volendam50% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
1 · Volendam50% probability@2.18LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Volendam	X	2 · Vitesse
Betsafe	EV+ 12% 2.22	3.60	2.80
LeoVegas	EV+ 10% 2.18	3.65	2.80
Nordicbet	EV+ 12% 2.22	3.60	2.80

Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:04

Odds movement

10 %

45 %40 %

2.18 → 2.18

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.65

20 %

35 %30 %

2.80 → 2.80

Over 2,50 %

67 %62 %

1.44 → 1.45

LeoVegas · 4 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Volendam 2Draw 0Vitesse 0

Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Volendam win 83% of their home matches all-time (23 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Volendam

Vitesse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Volendam (20–17)

Vitesse (15–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Volendam

Vitesse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Volendam

Vitesse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Volendam	Vitesse
Points	12	14
xPoints	12.2	14.5
xG per match	1.9	1.8
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.18

Playing style	Volendam	Vitesse
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.45	0.5
xT per match	1.1	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	21	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.3
Entries into the box per match	14	15
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.7
Passes per match	361	320
Passes against per match	330	349
Switches of play per match	28.7	29.6
Long balls per match	40	40

Set pieces	Volendam	Vitesse
xG from free kicks	0.39	0.06
Corners per match	3.9	5.3
Corners against per match	6.4	4.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.27
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.64

Other	Volendam	Vitesse
Throw-in control	0.8	0.73

The goalkeepers	Hidde Jurjus (Volendam)	Connor van den Berg (Vitesse)
Saves	23	25
Save %	77%	78%
xG prevented	53%	86%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Volendam

Fixtures, form & tips

Vitesse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Volendam vs Vitesse according to our model?

The model gives Volendam a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Volendam 50%, draw 24%, Vitesse 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.