Roda vs Jong PSV Prediction: Home win 50% (9 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie9 October 20269°4,2 mm33 km/h

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RodaPossession control

Jong PSVPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Roda (50%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.30 (+9 %)

1 · Roda 50%X 25%25% Jong PSV · 2

50%

25%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Roda – Jong PSV

Erik Lindberg · 4 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The rain in Kerkrade is expected to bring a damp atmosphere to the clash between Roda and Jong PSV, potentially stifling the goal production that the numbers otherwise suggest. The hosts are unbeaten in their last seven league outings, a testament to their defensive solidity and preference for controlled possession, while Jong PSV, true to their high-pressing style, have found the net in ten consecutive matches. This tension between possession dominance and relentless pressing sets the stage for a tactically intriguing match.

The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 2-1, reflect a tight contest, with model probabilities giving Roda a notable edge at 50%. Despite Jong PSV’s ability to score regularly, they face a Roda side with a strong head-to-head record, where the sample, though small, shows a clear advantage for the hosts with three wins out of four since 2023. The expected goals further emphasize Roda's edge, predicting 1.80 for the hosts against 1.28 for their visitors.

Given the rain’s dampening effect and Roda’s defensive form, the anticipated over 2.5 goals might be less certain. Betsafe’s odds of 2.62 for under 2.5 goals offer a 6% edge, suggesting value for those expecting a lower-scoring affair than the model’s 59% projection for the over might suggest. However, with 61% confidence in both teams scoring, a tight, controlled game with narrow margins appears most likely.

For those eyeing value, the draw at 4.3 odds with LeoVegas, presenting a 9% edge, stands out as a prudent play. Jong PSV’s recent scoring streak and Roda’s unbeaten run could very well balance each other out, making a stalemate plausible, if not the most thrilling.

Roda

Form DDWDW

League ranking xG #12xGA #4xT #17xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Lucas BeertenCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
Marco TolCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Joshua NisbetCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.10

Jong PSV

Form DWLDL

League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #10xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Jordy BawuahCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
Michael BresserCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
Madi MonamayCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: Roda – Jong PSV

Predicted score matrix

Jong PSV →

Roda →

0–04.9%

0–15.6%

0–23.8%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.7%

1–08.0%

1–110.9%

1–26.8%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.4%

2–19.5%

2–26.1%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–04.4%

3–15.7%

3–23.7%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–03.0%

4+–13.8%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,80–1,28

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.62EV+6%

Over 2,559%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Roda to win50%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Roda to win50%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Bram Marsman to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Bram Marsman to score19%
Fabian Merién to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw25% probability@4.30LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
2 · Jong PSV25% probability@4.33LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.541% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Roda	X	2 · Jong PSV
Betsafe	1.68	EV+ 2% 4.05	EV+ 6% 4.25
LeoVegas	1.60	EV+ 9% 4.30	EV+ 8% 4.33
Nordicbet	1.68	EV+ 2% 4.05	EV+ 6% 4.25

Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

60 %55 %

1.58 → 1.60

X-1 %

24 %19 %

4.33 → 4.30

2-2 %

24 %19 %

4.40 → 4.33

Over 2,50 %

66 %61 %

1.45 → 1.45

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 04/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Roda 3Draw 0Jong PSV 1

Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

Roda JC Kerkrade are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
PSV U21 have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Roda

Jong PSV

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Roda (9–5)

Jong PSV (14–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Roda

Jong PSV

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Roda

Jong PSV

The teams in numbers

Performance	Roda	Jong PSV
Points	15	12
xPoints	12.7	13
xG per match	1.3	1.5
xGA per match	1.1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.21

Playing style	Roda	Jong PSV
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.4	0.58
xT per match	0.94	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.32
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.75
Passes per match	353	421
Passes against per match	370	307
Switches of play per match	20.1	27.8
Long balls per match	32	39

Set pieces	Roda	Jong PSV
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	3.9	5.4
Corners against per match	3.9	4.7
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.6

Other	Roda	Jong PSV
Throw-in control	0.72	0.77

The goalkeepers	Justin Treichel (Roda)	Khadim Ngom (Jong PSV)
Saves	32	16
Save %	89%	73%
xG prevented	78%	76%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Roda

Fixtures, form & tips

Jong PSV

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Roda vs Jong PSV according to our model?

The model gives Roda a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Roda 50%, draw 25%, Jong PSV 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.