NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht Prediction: Home win 53% (9 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie9 October 202611°14,7 mm26 km/h

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NAC BredaPossession & high press

MVV MaastrichtPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · NAC Breda (53%)Best value by the model: 2 · MVV Maastricht @ 7.80 (+61 %)

1 · NAC Breda 53%X 26%21% MVV Maastricht · 2

53%

26%

21%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: NAC Breda – MVV Maastricht

Oscar Nilsson · 4 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

MVV Maastricht's scoring streak of eight consecutive league matches sets an intriguing stage for their clash against NAC Breda. Despite this offensive consistency, the odds are heavily skewed in favor of the hosts. NAC Breda leads the statistical battle in several key areas, including expected goals and xPoints, yet they find themselves trailing in the actual points tally, reflecting a tendency for underperformance.

NAC's high-pressing approach could exploit a Maastricht side that, while comfortable in possession control, has been less effective in converting possession into high-quality chances. This discrepancy is evident in their xG per match, which significantly trails Breda's 1.9. However, a sprinkle of rain is expected, which might dampen the fluidity of both teams' possession games and keep the scoreline tighter.

Interestingly, the model's 53% probability for a NAC Breda win contrasts sharply with the generous odds on MVV Maastricht, available at 7.8 with Betsafe and Nordicbet. The odds suggest a much lower chance of an away victory than the model's assessment, marking it a potentially lucrative option for bettors who believe in Maastricht's attacking persistence.

The head-to-head record since 2023, albeit in a small sample of two games, shows an even split. Breda's home advantage and statistical edge suggest they should come out on top, yet their actual form hints at vulnerability. The most likely outcomes reflect a narrow home win or a 1-1 draw, with scoring on both sides anticipated.

For those inclined to take a calculated risk, MVV Maastricht at 7.8 offers an enticing value play. While NAC Breda holds the upper hand on paper, if Maastricht can continue their scoring run, there’s more than just a slim hope of an upset on the cards.

NAC Breda

Form LLWWD

League ranking xG #2xGA #5xT #7xP/match #6Points #8

Key players

Jan Van Den BerghCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.15
Kamal Deen SowahRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
Mohamed NassohCAMxG 0.20 · xT 0.22

MVV Maastricht

Form WDLWL

League ranking xG #19xGA #7xT #20xP/match #15Points #3

Key players

Finn Jesper DickeCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
Elias Sierra-CappellettiCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.01
Olivier DumontRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: NAC Breda – MVV Maastricht

Predicted score matrix

MVV Maastricht →

NAC Breda →

0–05.5%

0–15.5%

0–23.2%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–09.3%

1–111.0%

1–25.9%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.9%

2–19.8%

2–25.5%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–05.5%

3–16.0%

3–23.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.8%

4+–14.2%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-09%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,84–1,11

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.95EV+24%

Over 2,557%

@1.39

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

NAC Breda to win53%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

NAC Breda to win53%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Jannes Van Hecke to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Jannes Van Hecke to score23%
Maximilien Balard to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · MVV Maastricht21% probability@7.80BetsafeEV+61%reference odds
2 · MVV Maastricht21% probability@7.80NordicbetEV+61%reference odds
2 · MVV Maastricht21% probability@7.50LeoVegasEV+55%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · NAC Breda	X	2 · MVV Maastricht
Betsafe	1.34	EV+ 24% 4.80	EV+ 61% 7.80
LeoVegas	1.30	EV+ 36% 5.25	EV+ 55% 7.50
Nordicbet	1.34	EV+ 24% 4.80	EV+ 61% 7.80

Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

73 %68 %

1.31 → 1.30

X-3 %

20 %15 %

5.40 → 5.25

2+7 %

15 %10 %

7.00 → 7.50

Over 2,5-2 %

70 %65 %

1.38 → 1.35

LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

NAC Breda 1Draw 0MVV Maastricht 1

Goals: 5–3 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

MVV Maastricht have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

NAC Breda

MVV Maastricht

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

NAC Breda (19–19)

MVV Maastricht (13–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

NAC Breda

MVV Maastricht

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

NAC Breda

MVV Maastricht

The teams in numbers

Performance	NAC Breda	MVV Maastricht
Points	14	16
xPoints	13.3	10.1
xG per match	1.9	1.1
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.12

Playing style	NAC Breda	MVV Maastricht
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.69	0.56
xT per match	1.4	0.88
xTA per match	1.1	0.9
Won balls, offensive half	33	27
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.3
Entries into the box per match	17	10
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.72
Passes per match	400	377
Passes against per match	271	318
Switches of play per match	27.6	31.9
Long balls per match	40	45

Set pieces	NAC Breda	MVV Maastricht
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.02
Corners per match	7	4.1
Corners against per match	3.1	4.4
xG per corner	0.05	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.21
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.34

Other	NAC Breda	MVV Maastricht
Throw-in control	0.77	0.73

The goalkeepers	Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda)	Hugo Wentges (MVV Maastricht)
Saves	22	17
Save %	55%	55%
xG prevented	40%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

NAC Breda

Fixtures, form & tips

MVV Maastricht

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins NAC Breda vs MVV Maastricht according to our model?

The model gives NAC Breda a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NAC Breda 53%, draw 26%, MVV Maastricht 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.