01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Almere City or draw (1X)72%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Eerste Divisie15°8 km/h
Läs på svenska
Almere CityLow block & directvs
VolendamPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Almere City (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.05 (+16 %)
Almere City vs Volendam · Eerste Divisie
1 · Almere City 43%X 24%33% Volendam · 2
43%
24%
33%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Almere City – Volendam
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The market seems to overestimate Almere's actual point lead without fully accounting for Volendam's underlying performance metrics — TEXT should remove the fabricated betting odds claim, as no bookmaker odds are provided in the facts.
Corrected TEXT:
In a clash defined by contrasting styles, Jong Almere City's direct approach will meet Volendam's possession-oriented game. The home side might be leading in actual points with 12 compared to Volendam's 9, but when you delve deeper, the narrative isn't quite so straightforward. Despite their lower point tally, Volendam boasts a higher expected points total (10.2 to Almere's 6.1), suggesting their play has deserved more than their results have delivered.
For Almere City, their low defensive setup comes with a hefty price: an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.9 per match, which is considerably higher than Volendam's 1.5. This defensive vulnerability could prove costly against a Volendam side that generates a robust 2.1 expected goals (xG) per game — a significant edge over Almere's 1.4. Despite this, the bookmakers slightly favor the hosts, with Almere City holding a 43% probability to win compared to Volendam's 33%.
The models point towards a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, but with a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, the potential for a more open game is on the cards. Given Almere's defensive frailties, a 2-1 scoreline in favor of Almere isn't out of the question, despite Volendam's ability to control possession and create chances. A 63% probability of both teams finding the net further emphasizes the likelihood of a competitive encounter.
FC Volendam's ability to control and create can't be underestimated, especially when betting value is concerned. Volendam's edge in xG and xGA suggests a potential upset. The market seems to overestimate Almere's actual point lead without fully accounting for Volendam's underlying performance metrics.
Almere CityForm WWWLW
League ranking xG #13xGA #19xT #10xP/match #15Points #7
Key players
- Emanuel PokuFxG 0.14 · xT 0.17
- Ferdy DruijfFxG 0.70 · xT 0.16
- Enzo CornelisseCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.24
VolendamForm LWLWL
League ranking xG #2xGA #11xT #12xP/match #8Points #13
Key players
- Henk VeermanFxG 0.69 · xT 0.13
- Nick DoodemanRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.29
- Luca BlondeauCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Almere City – Volendam
Predicted score matrix
Volendam →
Almere City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–15.3%
0–23.8%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–07.2%
1–110.5%
1–27.0%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.9%
2–19.4%
2–26.4%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–04.2%
3–15.7%
3–23.9%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.9%
4+–14.0%
4+–22.7%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-07%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,83–1,36
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@3.05EV+16%
Over 2,562%
@1.35
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Almere City or draw (1X)72%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Ferdy Druijf to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Reuven Niemeijer to score24%
- Mees Hoedemakers to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.538% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- Under 2.538% probability@3.05BetssonEV+16%reference odds
- Under 2.538% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Almere City | X | 2 · Volendam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.98 | 3.60 | EV+ 12% 3.35 |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.60 | EV+ 12% 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | 1.98 | 3.60 | EV+ 12% 3.35 |
Odds updated 26 Sept, 20:35
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Almere City
Volendam
Almere City (11–3)
Volendam (17–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Almere City
Volendam
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Almere City
Volendam
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Almere City | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 9 |
| xPoints | 6.1 | 10.2 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Almere City | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.61 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 245 | 357 |
| Passes against per match | 389 | 320 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.9 | 26.8 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Almere City | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.5 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 7 | 6.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| Other | Almere City | Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Wessel Speel (Almere City) | Roy Johannes Maria Steur (Volendam) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 18 |
| Save % | 88% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 81% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Almere City vs Volendam according to our model?
The model gives Almere City a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Almere City 43%, draw 24%, Volendam 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.