Eerste Divisie15°0,6 mm8 km/h

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    Den BoschDen BoschPossession & high press
    vs
    DordrechtDordrechtPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Den Bosch (56%)

    Den Bosch vs Dordrecht · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Den Bosch 56%X 21%24% Dordrecht · 2

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    Analysis: Den Bosch – Dordrecht

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Den Bosch's high press and possession style is likely to set the tone against a Dordrecht side struggling to find their feet with five consecutive losses. The numerical edge is firmly with the hosts, whose expected goals (xG) of 2.33 far surpasses Dordrecht's 1.41. This discrepancy is mirrored in the model probabilities, which give Den Bosch a 56% chance of victory, and the most likely scoreline of 2-1 further supports this outlook.

    Yet, history throws a twist: in their last four meetings, Den Bosch has failed to win, managing only a single draw. However, this is a small sample and less significant than the current form and statistical indicators. With Den Bosch holding a clear advantage in both xPoints (9.9 vs Dordrecht's 6.4) and xGA (1.8 vs Dordrecht's 2.0), the market may be underestimating the hosts' potential to finally turn the tables.

    The numbers hint at an open game, with a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% likelihood of both teams finding the net. Dordrecht's defensive frailties—evidenced by their higher xGA—make them susceptible to Den Bosch's aggressive press, which could lead to multiple scoring opportunities for the home side.

    Expect an end-to-end affair that likely sees Den Bosch breaking their winless streak against Dordrecht. A 2-1 victory for the home team feels like the most plausible outcome.

    Den BoschDen Bosch
    Form WLLLW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #16xT #7xP/match #11Points #14
    Key players
    • Sebastian Karlsson GrachFxG 0.52 · xT -0.01
    • Kévin Monzialo BokoloFxG 0.42 · xT 0.23
    • Mees LarosLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.17
    DordrechtDordrecht
    Form LLLLL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #20xT #8xP/match #20Points #19
    Key players
    • Ayoub OuarghiCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.16
    • Martin VetkalFxG 0.15 · xT 0.05
    • Dario ŠitsFxG 0.27 · xT 0.00

    Match prediction: Den Bosch – Dordrecht

    Predicted score matrix

    Dordrecht →
    Den Bosch →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.6%
    0–13.1%
    0–22.4%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–05.3%
    1–18.0%
    1–25.5%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–06.5%
    2–19.1%
    2–26.4%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–05.0%
    3–17.1%
    3–25.0%
    3–32.3%
    3–4+1.1%
    4+
    4+–05.0%
    4+–17.1%
    4+–25.0%
    4+–32.4%
    4+–4+1.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-19%
    2. 2.1-18%
    3. 3.3-17%
    4. 4.2-06%
    5. 5.2-26%
    Expected goals
    2,33–1,41
    Both teams to score
    68%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,7
    Under 2,528%
    –
    Over 2,572%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Den Bosch to win56%
    • Over 1.5 goals89%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Den Bosch to win56%
    • Over 2.5 goals72%
    • Devon Findell De Corte to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score68%
    • Over 2.5 goals72%
    • Devon Findell De Corte to score28%
    • Lorenzo Riccio to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Den Bosch 0Draw 1Dordrecht 3
    Goals: 7–13 (⌀ 5)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Dordrecht have lost 5 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Den Bosch
    Dordrecht
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Den Bosch (12–16)
    Dordrecht (9–21)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Den Bosch
    Hessel Eikelboom: 209 passningar, xT 0.34EikelboomJeffry Fortes: 208 passningar, xT 1.34FortesMees Laros: 194 passningar, xT 0.83LarosPepijn van de Merbel: 141 passningar, xT 0.34MerbelDevon Findell De Corte: 114 passningar, xT 1.26CorteStan Maas: 99 passningar, xT 0.13MaasKevin Felida: 87 passningar, xT 0.31FelidaSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 86 passningar, xT 0.5BarglanJasper van Heertum: 83 passningar, xT 0.18HeertumKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 74 passningar, xT 0.84BokoloSilvan Bröker: 73 passningar, xT 0Bröker
    Dordrecht
    Jaden Pinas: 244 passningar, xT 0.3PinasStan Henderikx: 180 passningar, xT 0.37HenderikxJurre Van Aken: 156 passningar, xT 0.97AkenCalvin Owen Harm Raatsie: 145 passningar, xT 0.19RaatsieAyoub Ouarghi: 136 passningar, xT 0.57OuarghiSenne Vugts: 134 passningar, xT 0.51VugtsAdil Lechkar: 133 passningar, xT 0.27LechkarLucas Woudenberg: 111 passningar, xT 0.24WoudenbergBeni Christophe Mpanzu: 100 passningar, xT 1.01MpanzuLorenzo Riccio: 87 passningar, xT 0.3RiccioMartin Vetkal: 80 passningar, xT 0.15Vetkal
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Den Bosch
    Hessel Eikelboom: 209 passningar, xT 0.34EikelboomJeffry Fortes: 208 passningar, xT 1.34FortesMees Laros: 194 passningar, xT 0.83LarosPepijn van de Merbel: 141 passningar, xT 0.34MerbelDevon Findell De Corte: 114 passningar, xT 1.26CorteStan Maas: 99 passningar, xT 0.13MaasKevin Felida: 87 passningar, xT 0.31FelidaSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 86 passningar, xT 0.5BarglanJasper van Heertum: 83 passningar, xT 0.18HeertumKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 74 passningar, xT 0.84BokoloSilvan Bröker: 73 passningar, xT 0Bröker
    Dordrecht
    Jaden Pinas: 244 passningar, xT 0.3PinasStan Henderikx: 180 passningar, xT 0.37HenderikxJurre Van Aken: 156 passningar, xT 0.97AkenCalvin Owen Harm Raatsie: 145 passningar, xT 0.19RaatsieAyoub Ouarghi: 136 passningar, xT 0.57OuarghiSenne Vugts: 134 passningar, xT 0.51VugtsAdil Lechkar: 133 passningar, xT 0.27LechkarLucas Woudenberg: 111 passningar, xT 0.24WoudenbergBeni Christophe Mpanzu: 100 passningar, xT 1.01MpanzuLorenzo Riccio: 87 passningar, xT 0.3RiccioMartin Vetkal: 80 passningar, xT 0.15Vetkal

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDen BoschDordrecht
    Points94
    xPoints9.96.4
    xG per match1.71.1
    xGA per match1.82
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.29
    Playing styleDen BoschDordrecht
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.520.57
    xT per match1.41.3
    xTA per match1.30.96
    Won balls, offensive half2624
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.340.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.290.29
    Entries into the box per match1415
    Entries into the box against1513
    Pass completion %0.690.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.7
    Passes per match285377
    Passes against per match303278
    Switches of play per match19.727.9
    Long balls per match3746
    Set piecesDen BoschDordrecht
    xG from free kicks0.050.06
    Corners per match8.35.1
    Corners against per match3.73.7
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.050.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.410.39
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.5
    OtherDen BoschDordrecht
    Throw-in control0.770.76
    The goalkeepersPepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)Calvin Owen Harm Raatsie (Dordrecht)
    Saves3326
    Save %70%61%
    xG prevented53%37%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Den Bosch
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dordrecht
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Den Bosch vs Dordrecht according to our model?

    The model gives Den Bosch a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Den Bosch 56%, draw 21%, Dordrecht 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 72% and under at 28%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 68% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.