01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance MVV Maastricht or draw (X2)67%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Eerste Divisie16°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
TOP OssLow block & directvs
MVV MaastrichtPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · MVV Maastricht (39%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 15.00 (+23 %)
TOP Oss vs MVV Maastricht · Eerste Divisie
1 · TOP Oss 33%X 28%39% MVV Maastricht · 2
33%
28%
39%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: TOP Oss – MVV Maastricht
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TOP Oss holds the historical edge over MVV Maastricht in their limited six-match head-to-head since 2023, with three wins to the visitors' two. Yet, this historical dominance doesn't fully align with the current form, which tilts in favor of the visitors. MVV Maastricht sits seven points ahead in the table, indicating a more consistent performance this season.
The contrasting styles of play could dictate the tempo of the match. The home team opts for a low defensive line with direct play, perhaps hoping to capitalize on quick transitions. Meanwhile, the visitors prefer to control possession, aiming to dismantle defenses through methodical build-up. This tactical clash might see the hosts struggle to keep possession, but it also presents opportunities to break on the counter against Maastricht's higher line.
TOP Oss's expected goals (1.3 per match) slightly edge out the visitors (1.2), suggesting they can create chances against the run of play. However, their expected goals against (1.7) reveals a vulnerability in defense that MVV Maastricht could exploit, given their more organized backline with an xGA of 1.2. Despite the hosts' attacking edge, they could find themselves exposed at the back.
The betting market leans toward MVV Maastricht at a 39% probability of winning, slightly more than TOP Oss's 33%, with the draw at 28%. The model projects a tight match, with 1-1 (13%) as the most likely scoreline. Given the expected goals and defensive statistics, the probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 47%. However, there might be value in backing MVV Maastricht at odds of 2.50 with bet365, potentially capitalizing on their superior form and possession-based approach to edge a narrow victory.
TOP OssForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #13xP/match #9Points #18
Key players
- Franslyn NsingiFxG 0.42 · xT 0.03
- Mauresmo Johannes Jacob Danny Silvinho HinokeLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.11
- Marcelencio EsajasCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
MVV MaastrichtForm WWWDL
League ranking xG #17xGA #4xT #19xP/match #12Points #6
Key players
- Olivier DumontRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.10
- Sil van der WegenRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
- Delano AsanteRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: TOP Oss – MVV Maastricht
Predicted score matrix
MVV Maastricht →
TOP Oss →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.2%
0–110.2%
0–27.1%
0–33.2%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–09.1%
1–113.0%
1–28.5%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.7%
2–17.6%
2–25.1%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.1%
3–22.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,20–1,34
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,553%
@2.18EV+16%
Over 2,547%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance MVV Maastricht or draw (X2)67%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Noa El Hamdaoui to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Noa El Hamdaoui to score24%
- Milan Hofland to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.58% probability@15.00BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
- Under 0.58% probability@15.00BetssonEV+23%reference odds
- Under 0.58% probability@15.00NordicbetEV+23%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · TOP Oss | X | 2 · MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.22 | 3.45 | EV+ 14% 2.90 |
| Betsson | 2.22 | 3.45 | EV+ 14% 2.90 |
| Nordicbet | 2.22 | 3.45 | EV+ 14% 2.90 |
Odds updated 27 Sept, 14:35
Odds movement
1-1 %
44 %39 %
2.25 → 2.22
X+1 %
29 %24 %
3.40 → 3.45
20 %
34 %29 %
2.90 → 2.90
Over 2,50 %
59 %54 %
1.65 → 1.65
Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 26/09/2026 → 27/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesTOP Oss 3Draw 1MVV Maastricht 2
Goals: 9–5 (⌀ 2,3)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
TOP Oss
MVV Maastricht
TOP Oss (8–12)
MVV Maastricht (10–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
TOP Oss
MVV Maastricht
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
TOP Oss
MVV Maastricht
The teams in numbers
| Performance | TOP Oss | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 13 |
| xPoints | 10.1 | 8.3 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | TOP Oss | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 0.87 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 19 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.6 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 226 | 358 |
| Passes against per match | 446 | 341 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.4 | 29.8 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 40 |
| Set pieces | TOP Oss | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| Corners against per match | 7 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.1 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.33 |
| Other | TOP Oss | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Mike Havekotte (TOP Oss) | Hugo Wentges (MVV Maastricht) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 10 |
| Save % | 72% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 35% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins TOP Oss vs MVV Maastricht according to our model?
The model gives MVV Maastricht a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: TOP Oss 33%, draw 28%, MVV Maastricht 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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