Eerste Divisie16°9 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    VitesseVitesseLow block & direct
    vs
    NAC BredaNAC BredaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Vitesse (39%)Soft draw

    Vitesse vs NAC Breda · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Vitesse 39%X 25%36% NAC Breda · 2

    Bet on this match

    BetssonFå ett 250 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4!Claim the bonus at Betsson
    NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
    BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

    18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

    Analysis: Vitesse – NAC Breda

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Vitesse's slight edge in expected goals per match, 2.1 to NAC Breda's 1.9, highlights their offensive potency. The model gives the hosts a 39% chance of winning, slightly outstripping Breda's 36%, supported by their 1.62 expected goals compared to the visitors’ 1.50. Despite the close probabilities, Vitesse's more direct style may exploit any lapses in NAC's high pressing game.

    The most likely scorelines suggest a tight affair, with a 1-1 draw at 11% leading the projections, followed by a 2-1 home win at 9% and a 1-2 away victory at 8%. The high probability of both teams scoring (63%) aligns well with these expectations, indicating a match where defences could be breached. With a projected over 2.5 goals at 60%, the indicators lean towards a match featuring multiple goals, despite neither team's defensive record being particularly concerning.

    From a betting perspective, considering William Hill offers Vitesse at enticing odds of 2.55, this presents a potential value play given Vitesse's edge in both xG and xPoints. While the model leans towards the hosts, the close nature of the matchup makes any outright prediction less than certain. A 2-1 victory for Vitesse seems the most pragmatic call in this finely balanced contest.

    VitesseVitesse
    Form LWWLW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #3xP/match #2Points #5
    Key players
    • Naoufal BannisFxG 0.93 · xT -0.06
    • Ayman SelloufFxG 0.23 · xT 0.18
    • Ricardo-Felipe SchwarzCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.31
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    Form WDLLW
    League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #6xP/match #14Points #12
    Key players
    • Paul GladonFxG 0.74 · xT 0.07
    • Jan Van Den BerghCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.16
    • Cherrion ValeriusRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Vitesse – NAC Breda

    Predicted score matrix

    NAC Breda →
    Vitesse →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.7%
    0–16.3%
    0–25.0%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–06.8%
    1–111.0%
    1–28.0%
    1–34.0%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–05.8%
    2–18.7%
    2–26.5%
    2–33.3%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–03.1%
    3–14.7%
    3–23.5%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.2-27%
    Expected goals
    1,62–1,50
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.58EV+2%
    Over 2,560%
    @1.46

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Vitesse or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.87

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Vitesse or draw (1X)65%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Naoufal Bannis to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Naoufal Bannis to score24%
    • Maximilien Balard to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Vitesse39% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
    • 1 · Vitesse39% probability@2.75BetssonEV+8%reference odds
    • 1 · Vitesse39% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · VitesseX2 · NAC Breda
    Betsafe
    EV+ 8%
    2.75    		3.602.22
    Betsson
    EV+ 8%
    2.75    		3.602.22
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 8%
    2.75    		3.602.22

    Odds updated 26 Sept, 20:35

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Vitesse
    NAC Breda
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Vitesse (13–9)
    NAC Breda (13–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Vitesse
    Omar Achouitar: 229 passningar, xT 0.5AchouitarValon Zumberi: 187 passningar, xT 0.28ZumberiNathangelo Alexandro Markelo: 158 passningar, xT 0.5MarkeloAyman Sellouf: 150 passningar, xT 0.65SelloufRicardo-Felipe Schwarz: 124 passningar, xT 0.68SchwarzChiel Olde Keizer: 121 passningar, xT 0.56KeizerMarco Schikora: 114 passningar, xT 0.65SchikoraConnor van den Berg: 104 passningar, xT 0.18BergMathijs Marschalk: 86 passningar, xT 0.37MarschalkFilipe de Carvalho Ferreira: 53 passningar, xT 0.64FerreiraNaoufal Bannis: 46 passningar, xT -0.13Bannis
    NAC Breda
    Jan Van Den Bergh: 260 passningar, xT 0.8BerghMohamed Nassoh: 184 passningar, xT 0.56NassohFredrik Oldrup Jensen: 176 passningar, xT 0.62JensenRio Hillen: 174 passningar, xT 0.07HillenMax Balard: 169 passningar, xT 0.37BalardLeo Greiml: 163 passningar, xT 0.21GreimlJannes Van Hecke: 143 passningar, xT 0.63HeckeMichael Robin Verrips: 131 passningar, xT 0.37VerripsBoyd Lucassen: 108 passningar, xT 0.71LucassenCherrion Valerius: 56 passningar, xT 0.18ValeriusMoussa Soumano: 49 passningar, xT -0.09Soumano
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Vitesse
    Omar Achouitar: 229 passningar, xT 0.5AchouitarValon Zumberi: 187 passningar, xT 0.28ZumberiNathangelo Alexandro Markelo: 158 passningar, xT 0.5MarkeloAyman Sellouf: 150 passningar, xT 0.65SelloufRicardo-Felipe Schwarz: 124 passningar, xT 0.68SchwarzChiel Olde Keizer: 121 passningar, xT 0.56KeizerMarco Schikora: 114 passningar, xT 0.65SchikoraConnor van den Berg: 104 passningar, xT 0.18BergMathijs Marschalk: 86 passningar, xT 0.37MarschalkFilipe de Carvalho Ferreira: 53 passningar, xT 0.64FerreiraNaoufal Bannis: 46 passningar, xT -0.13Bannis
    NAC Breda
    Jan Van Den Bergh: 260 passningar, xT 0.8BerghMohamed Nassoh: 184 passningar, xT 0.56NassohFredrik Oldrup Jensen: 176 passningar, xT 0.62JensenRio Hillen: 174 passningar, xT 0.07HillenMax Balard: 169 passningar, xT 0.37BalardLeo Greiml: 163 passningar, xT 0.21GreimlJannes Van Hecke: 143 passningar, xT 0.63HeckeMichael Robin Verrips: 131 passningar, xT 0.37VerripsBoyd Lucassen: 108 passningar, xT 0.71LucassenCherrion Valerius: 56 passningar, xT 0.18ValeriusMoussa Soumano: 49 passningar, xT -0.09Soumano

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVitesseNAC Breda
    Points1310
    xPoints12.89.2
    xG per match2.11.9
    xGA per match1.31.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.310.3
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.2
    Playing styleVitesseNAC Breda
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.560.68
    xT per match1.61.5
    xTA per match1.11.2
    Won balls, offensive half2631
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.30.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.32
    Entries into the box per match1617
    Entries into the box against1311
    Pass completion %0.740.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.73
    Passes per match334407
    Passes against per match339271
    Switches of play per match31.928.5
    Long balls per match4043
    Set piecesVitesseNAC Breda
    xG from free kicks0.050.12
    Corners per match5.26.8
    Corners against per match4.62.6
    xG per corner0.020.04
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.250.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.660.61
    OtherVitesseNAC Breda
    Throw-in control0.750.79
    The goalkeepersConnor van den Berg (Vitesse)Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda)
    Saves1819
    Save %82%58%
    xG prevented87%44%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Vitesse
    Fixtures, form & tips
    NAC Breda
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Vitesse vs NAC Breda according to our model?

    The model gives Vitesse a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vitesse 39%, draw 25%, NAC Breda 36%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    EmmenEmmen
    1–0
    RodaRoda
    1 38%X 24%2 38%
    The model called the outcome
    DordrechtDordrecht
    2–1
    Jong AjaxJong Ajax
    1 59%X 21%2 20%
    The model called the outcome
    VitesseVitesse
    1–1
    WaalwijkWaalwijk
    1 37%X 26%2 37%
    The model missed the outcome
    Betsson
    BetssonPopulär
    Få ett 250 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4!

    250 kr gratisspel plus freespins

    Hämta bonus
    Nordicbet
    Nordicbet
    Välkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.

    100 kr gratisspel plus freespins

    Hämta bonus
    Betsafe
    Betsafe
    Hämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!

    100 kr gratisspel plus freespins

    Hämta bonus

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.