Eerste Divisie17°7 km/h

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    Helmond SportHelmond SportLow block & direct
    vs
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Heracles Almelo (72%)

    Helmond Sport vs Heracles Almelo · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Helmond Sport 13%X 15%72% Heracles Almelo · 2

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    Analysis: Helmond Sport – Heracles Almelo

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    FAKTA does not mention any head-to-head history between the teams, nor does it provide bookmaker odds. Both of these claims are unsupported and must be removed/corrected.

    Heracles Almelo's stronger season form paints a clear picture for their encounter against Helmond Sport. The visitors' superior form this season is undeniable. Their commanding 72% probability of victory underscores their expected dominance.

    The numbers reinforce this narrative. Helmond, with just 8 points accumulated, stands in stark contrast to Heracles’ 21. The expected goals (xG) figures support this disparity, with Helmond lagging at 0.99 expected goals compared to Heracles' 2.34. Defensively, Helmond concedes more frequently, with an xGA of 1.5, while Heracles boasts a more robust defensive profile at 0.87 xGA per match.

    Forecasting the flow of the game, Helmond's direct style might struggle against the counter-attacking and crossing prowess of Heracles. The model's lean towards a 0-2 or 1-2 scoreline seems plausible given these considerations. Goals are likely, with a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability for both teams finding the net. However, Heracles' ability to control and counter will likely limit Helmond's chances.

    From a betting perspective, the standout angle is the value in Heracles Almelo's victory, aligning well with the model's 72% win probability. While nothing is guaranteed in football, this looks like a solid opportunity. A straightforward, well-supported bet on the visitors could indeed be the sensible play that pays the bills, rather than chasing long shots or inflated odds.

    Helmond SportHelmond Sport
    Form LWWLL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #11xT #19xP/match #7Points #15
    Key players
    • Mauro LenaertsFxG 0.63 · xT 0.02
    • Livio CiceroFxG 0.32 · xT 0.22
    • Xander Jan Van der VeldeCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    Form WWWLW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #2xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Jean-Paul N'djoliLWxG 0.82 · xT 0.17
    • Damon MiraniCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
    • David Vicente RoblesRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.28

    Match prediction: Helmond Sport – Heracles Almelo

    Predicted score matrix

    Heracles Almelo →
    Helmond Sport →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.8%
    0–18.1%
    0–29.8%
    0–37.6%
    0–4+7.7%
    1
    1–03.3%
    1–18.5%
    1–29.7%
    1–37.6%
    1–4+7.7%
    2
    2–01.8%
    2–14.1%
    2–24.8%
    2–33.7%
    2–4+3.8%
    3
    3–00.6%
    3–11.4%
    3–21.6%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+1.3%
    4+
    4+–00.2%
    4+–10.4%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.0-210%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.1-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.0-38%
    Expected goals
    0,99–2,34
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    –
    Over 2,565%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Heracles Almelo to win72%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    59%

    Fair odds

    1.70

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Heracles Almelo to win72%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Jean-Paul N'djoli to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Jean-Paul N'djoli to score26%
    • Michel-Simon Ludwig to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Helmond Sport
    Heracles Almelo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Helmond Sport (13–14)
    Heracles Almelo (26–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Helmond Sport
    Tijn Landheer: 240 passningar, xT 0.13LandheerBrian Koglin: 218 passningar, xT 0.44KoglinMichel Ludwig: 186 passningar, xT 0.26LudwigXander Jan Van der Velde: 185 passningar, xT 0.31VeldeThomas Poll: 168 passningar, xT 0.56PollMenno Bergsen: 154 passningar, xT 0.1BergsenSem Dekkers: 147 passningar, xT 1.15DekkersJoep van der Sluijs: 94 passningar, xT 0.2SluijsLivio Cicero: 87 passningar, xT 0.77CiceroPol Llonch: 77 passningar, xT 0.09LlonchHelgi Frodi Ingason: 57 passningar, xT 0.02Ingason
    Heracles Almelo
    Damon Mirani: 226 passningar, xT 0.59MiraniMaurice Wrusch: 218 passningar, xT 0.66WruschDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 177 passningar, xT 0.92KustDavid Vicente Robles: 161 passningar, xT 1.41RoblesManny Rodriguez Baldera: 142 passningar, xT 0.6BalderaFabian de Keijzer: 133 passningar, xT 0.36KeijzerSem Scheperman: 112 passningar, xT 0.08SchepermanMax Hauswirth: 102 passningar, xT 0.11HauswirthTristan van Gilst: 95 passningar, xT 0.37GilstChafik Abbas: 92 passningar, xT 1.49AbbasJean-Paul N'djoli: 67 passningar, xT 0.42N'djoli
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Helmond Sport
    Tijn Landheer: 240 passningar, xT 0.13LandheerBrian Koglin: 218 passningar, xT 0.44KoglinMichel Ludwig: 186 passningar, xT 0.26LudwigXander Jan Van der Velde: 185 passningar, xT 0.31VeldeThomas Poll: 168 passningar, xT 0.56PollMenno Bergsen: 154 passningar, xT 0.1BergsenSem Dekkers: 147 passningar, xT 1.15DekkersJoep van der Sluijs: 94 passningar, xT 0.2SluijsLivio Cicero: 87 passningar, xT 0.77CiceroPol Llonch: 77 passningar, xT 0.09LlonchHelgi Frodi Ingason: 57 passningar, xT 0.02Ingason
    Heracles Almelo
    Damon Mirani: 226 passningar, xT 0.59MiraniMaurice Wrusch: 218 passningar, xT 0.66WruschDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 177 passningar, xT 0.92KustDavid Vicente Robles: 161 passningar, xT 1.41RoblesManny Rodriguez Baldera: 142 passningar, xT 0.6BalderaFabian de Keijzer: 133 passningar, xT 0.36KeijzerSem Scheperman: 112 passningar, xT 0.08SchepermanMax Hauswirth: 102 passningar, xT 0.11HauswirthTristan van Gilst: 95 passningar, xT 0.37GilstChafik Abbas: 92 passningar, xT 1.49AbbasJean-Paul N'djoli: 67 passningar, xT 0.42N'djoli

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHelmond SportHeracles Almelo
    Points821
    xPoints11.617.4
    xG per match1.22.8
    xGA per match1.50.87
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.180.33
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.20.23
    Playing styleHelmond SportHeracles Almelo
    Build-up efficiency0.30.3
    Field tilt0.370.7
    xT per match0.921.9
    xTA per match1.20.85
    Won balls, offensive half2233
    Pressing intensity0.240.21
    Pressing efficiency0.260.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.210.32
    Entries into the box per match1117
    Entries into the box against179
    Pass completion %0.740.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.69
    Passes per match308335
    Passes against per match427259
    Switches of play per match26.224.8
    Long balls per match3539
    Set piecesHelmond SportHeracles Almelo
    xG from free kicks0.030.01
    Corners per match3.87.7
    Corners against per match5.63.5
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.370.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.360.61
    OtherHelmond SportHeracles Almelo
    Throw-in control0.730.74
    The goalkeepersMenno Bergsen (Helmond Sport)Fabian de Keijzer (Heracles Almelo)
    Saves3016
    Save %70%62%
    xG prevented54%37%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Helmond Sport
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Heracles Almelo
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Helmond Sport vs Heracles Almelo according to our model?

    The model gives Heracles Almelo a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Helmond Sport 13%, draw 15%, Heracles Almelo 72%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.