01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance FC Eindhoven or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Eerste Divisie15°0,6 mm9 km/h
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FC EindhovenPossession controlvs
De GraafschapPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · FC Eindhoven (35%)Soft draw
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap · Eerste Divisie
1 · FC Eindhoven 35%X 30%35% De Graafschap · 2
35%
30%
35%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: FC Eindhoven – De Graafschap
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Neither side holds a distinct advantage in the upcoming clash between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap, as both are assessed with a 35% win probability. This balance is reflected in the most likely scorelines, where a 1-1 draw leads with an 11% chance. The model slightly leans towards Eindhoven, not due to a dominance in head-to-head encounters — they have one win to De Graafschap's two in the small four-match sample — but rather because of their recent form and underlying metrics.
Eindhoven's edge in points (10 to 4) and xPoints (8.0 to 6.6) indicates a team capitalizing on its chances better than the visitors. Their expected goals for this match sit at 1.64, slightly higher than De Graafschap's 1.43, reflecting a capability to create meaningful opportunities. However, both sides are adept at possession control, which might lead to a cautious affair rather than an open one.
Defensively, Eindhoven appears more solid with an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.6 compared to De Graafschap's more porous 2.1. This defensive discipline could prove vital in a match where both teams are predicted to score (62% probability), suggesting a cagey encounter with bursts of action rather than a consistent flow.
Despite the overall undercurrent of balance, the 59% likelihood for over 2.5 goals suggests potential for more scoring than a simple draw might imply. Eindhoven's better defensive stats and slightly superior expected goals tilt the match in their favor, hinting that they may carve out a narrow win.
In a tight match like this, the value lies in betting on Eindhoven to win. Given the home side's defensive edge and the visitors' vulnerabilities, a 2-1 victory for Eindhoven aligns with the statistics, offering a pragmatic yet promising opportunity for bettors who favor shrewd, well-grounded plays.
FC EindhovenForm LLDWW
League ranking xG #21xGA #13xT #21xP/match #16Points #11
Key players
- Siegert BaartmansFxG 0.21 · xT -0.04
- Guus BeaumontCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
- Mika de JongeCMxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
De GraafschapForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #19xGA #21xT #18xP/match #19Points #20
Key players
- Julian KaniaFxG 0.36 · xT -0.01
- Joran HardemanCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
- Donny WarmerdamCDMxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: FC Eindhoven – De Graafschap
Predicted score matrix
De Graafschap →
FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–16.3%
0–24.7%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–07.3%
1–111.2%
1–27.8%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.2%
2–18.9%
2–26.4%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.9%
3–23.5%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–12.9%
4+–22.1%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,64–1,43
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
–
Over 2,559%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance FC Eindhoven or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Siegert Baartmans to score17%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Julian Kania to score32%
- Xander Blomme to be booked23%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesFC Eindhoven 1Draw 1De Graafschap 2
Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Eindhoven
De Graafschap
FC Eindhoven (11–13)
De Graafschap (8–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Eindhoven
De Graafschap
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Eindhoven
De Graafschap
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Eindhoven | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 4 |
| xPoints | 8 | 6.6 |
| xG per match | 0.97 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | FC Eindhoven | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 0.6 | 0.95 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 293 | 358 |
| Passes against per match | 364 | 316 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.9 | 35.2 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 43 |
| Set pieces | FC Eindhoven | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.62 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| Other | FC Eindhoven | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Jort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven) | Ties Wieggers (De Graafschap) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 25 |
| Save % | 63% | 56% |
| xG prevented | 23% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap according to our model?
The model gives FC Eindhoven a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Eindhoven 35%, draw 30%, De Graafschap 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.