01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Waalwijk to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Eerste Divisie15°0,6 mm8 km/h
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WaalwijkBalanced & physicalvs
EmmenPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Waalwijk (49%)
Waalwijk vs Emmen · Eerste Divisie
1 · Waalwijk 49%X 24%27% Emmen · 2
49%
24%
27%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Waalwijk – Emmen
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT contains an unsupported claim: the specific Bet365 odds of 2.10 are not provided in the FACTS and appear fabricated.
RKC Waalwijk's 49% win probability leads the analysis, favoring the hosts against Emmen's 27%. The model leans towards Waalwijk, buoyed by their ongoing three-game winning streak and the impressive feat of scoring in 29 consecutive league matches. A recent head-to-head snapshot shows a small sample advantage for Waalwijk with one win and one draw, yet this pales in comparison to their current form and goal-scoring consistency.
While Waalwijk’s balanced and physical style squares off against Emmen’s possession-heavy approach, the expected goals suggest a 1.98 to 1.32 edge for the hosts. The most probable scorelines, 1-1 and 2-1, both at 10%, reflect an anticipated tight contest. Despite Emmen's higher xG per match at 1.9, Waalwijk's better xGA figure suggests defensive resilience, potentially keeping Emmen at bay. The model’s prediction of over 2.5 goals at 64% aligns with the high likelihood of both teams finding the net, standing at 63%.
Waalwijk's form and scoring run make them the model's favorite in this matchup, though the closeness in xPoints (10.2 vs Emmen's 11.0) suggests Emmen have been slightly unlucky relative to their underlying numbers.
WaalwijkForm DDWWW
League ranking xG #11xGA #2xT #5xP/match #6Points #3
Key players
- Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.36
- Finn StokkersFxG 0.44 · xT -0.02
- Faissal Al MazyaniRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
EmmenForm WLWLL
League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #4xP/match #4Points #9
Key players
- Jack Cooper-LoveFxG 0.71 · xT 0.01
- Nelson Efosa AmadinRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
- Bryan Albert Van HoveLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.26
Match prediction: Waalwijk – Emmen
Predicted score matrix
Emmen →
Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.0%
0–14.6%
0–23.2%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–07.0%
1–19.9%
1–26.3%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.3%
2–19.6%
2–26.3%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–04.8%
3–16.3%
3–24.2%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–14.9%
4+–23.2%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-07%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,98–1,32
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@2.72
Over 2,564%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Waalwijk to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Finn Stokkers to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Finn Stokkers to score28%
- Alessandro Feridun Hojabrpour to be booked22%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Waalwijk | X | 2 · Emmen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.92 | 3.85 | 3.35 |
| Betsson | 1.92 | 3.85 | 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | 1.92 | 3.85 | 3.35 |
Odds updated 27 Sept, 07:35
Odds movement
1+4 %
51 %46 %
1.85 → 1.92
X0 %
27 %22 %
3.85 → 3.85
2-6 %
30 %25 %
3.55 → 3.35
Over 2,5+4 %
69 %64 %
1.39 → 1.44
Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 26/09/2026 → 27/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesWaalwijk 1Draw 1Emmen 0
Goals: 7–2 (⌀ 4,5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- RKC Waalwijk come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- RKC Waalwijk have scored in 29 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Waalwijk
Emmen
Waalwijk (18–9)
Emmen (17–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Waalwijk
Emmen
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Waalwijk
Emmen
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Waalwijk | Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 12 |
| xPoints | 10.2 | 11 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Waalwijk | Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 0.9 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 20 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 361 | 394 |
| Passes against per match | 340 | 315 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.9 | 24.2 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Waalwijk | Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| Other | Waalwijk | Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Niek Schiks (Waalwijk) | Sam Karssies (Emmen) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 17 |
| Save % | 68% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Waalwijk vs Emmen according to our model?
The model gives Waalwijk a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Waalwijk 49%, draw 24%, Emmen 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.