01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Jong AZ to win54%
- Over 1.5 goals88%
Eerste Divisie11°14,1 mm28 km/h
Läs på svenska
Jong AZPossession control5–4
Helmond SportPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Jong AZ (54%)
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport · Eerste Divisie
1 · Jong AZ 54%X 21%24% Helmond Sport · 2
54%
21%
24%
Prediction summary
Final score 5–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 23 October 2026): Jong AZ win 54%, draw 21%, Helmond Sport win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Jong AZ 2.22, Helmond Sport 1.39. Most likely score: 2-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 67%. Double chance: Jong AZ or draw 76%, Helmond Sport or draw 46%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Jong AZ – Helmond Sport
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The odds figure "1.85" is not supported by the given facts and appears fabricated.
CORRECTED TEXT:
The central question for Jong AZ versus Helmond Sport is whether the hosts can translate their statistical edge into a decisive victory despite recent head-to-head struggles. The model gives Jong AZ a clear edge with a 54% win probability, but their past encounters with Helmond present a troubling narrative: Jong AZ has lost three out of their four matchups since 2023. While this small sample should not overshadow the broader analysis, it does introduce an element of doubt.
Jong AZ's advantage is clear in most metrics. They lead not just in points but also in expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPoints), suggesting a more consistent performance level. With an xG of 2.22 for the upcoming match, they seem well-positioned to find the back of the net multiple times. Helmond Sport, by contrast, has an xG of 1.39, indicating their attack might struggle to match the hosts' firepower.
However, both teams employ a possession-based style, which might lead to a more tactical battle in the midfield. Yet, the forecasted rain could potentially disrupt this rhythm, leading to unpredictable shifts in momentum. Despite this, the model still leans towards a high-scoring encounter, with a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance both teams will score.
The projected scorelines of 2-1 and 3-1 underline Jong AZ's statistical superiority. They seem poised to exploit Helmond's defensive vulnerabilities, as indicated by their higher xG per match. Still, bettors should be cautious about the potential for rain to complicate matters, though this is accounted for in the model's predictions.
Given their statistical dominance and Helmond's recent struggles, Jong AZ presents a promising case for the discerning bettor.
Jong AZForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #9xP/match #9Points #10
Key players
- Julian OeripCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.12
- Jesper ZwartRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
- Ayoub OufkirFxG 0.52 · xT 0.24
Helmond SportForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #20xP/match #11Points #18
Key players
- Mauro LenaertsFxG 0.62 · xT 0.02
- Livio CiceroFxG 0.24 · xT 0.15
- Xander Jan Van der VeldeLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Final score
5 – 4
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Jong AZ 54% · Draw 21% · Helmond Sport 24%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Helmond SportBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,58fair 10,68-29 %
MissMatch prediction: Jong AZ – Helmond Sport
Predicted score matrix
Helmond Sport →
Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.0%
0–13.5%
0–22.6%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–05.8%
1–18.6%
1–25.8%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.7%
2–19.3%
2–26.4%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–04.9%
3–16.9%
3–24.8%
3–32.2%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–04.6%
4+–16.4%
4+–24.4%
4+–32.1%
4+–4+1.0%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-19%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.3-17%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
2,22–1,39
Both teams to score
67%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,60
19%
218%
321%
419%
5+30%
Under 2,530%
@2.82
Over 2,570%
@1.41
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Jong AZ to win54%
- Over 2.5 goals70%
- Julian Miles Oerip to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score67%
- Over 2.5 goals70%
- Julian Miles Oerip to score26%
- Julian Sijbrands to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Jong AZ54% probability@1.90LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
- 1 · Jong AZ54% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
- 1 · Jong AZ54% probability@1.85NordicbetEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Jong AZ | X | 2 · Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 0% 1.85 | 3.85 | 3.55 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 3% 1.90 | 3.85 | 3.40 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 0% 1.85 | 3.85 | 3.55 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Helmond Sport win since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 4.20 to 3.40 (−19%).
1+19 %
58 %48 %
1.60 → 1.90
X-12 %
27 %17 %
4.40 → 3.85
2-19 %
30 %20 %
4.20 → 3.40
Over 2,5+5 %
72 %62 %
1.33 → 1.40
LeoVegas · 24 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesJong AZ 1Draw 0Helmond Sport 3
Goals: 7–9 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jong AZ
Helmond Sport
Jong AZ (26–22)
Helmond Sport (16–21)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jong AZ
Helmond Sport
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jong AZ
Helmond Sport
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Jong AZ | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 9 |
| xPoints | 15.2 | 14.8 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Jong AZ | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 373 | 317 |
| Passes against per match | 361 | 408 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.2 | 25.2 |
| Long balls per match | 43 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Jong AZ | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 3.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.39 |
| Other | Jong AZ | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Kiyani Zeggen (Jong AZ) | Menno Bergsen (Helmond Sport) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 49 |
| Save % | 63% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Volendam – Jong Utrecht23 October 2026
- TOP Oss – Jong Ajax23 October 2026
- NAC Breda – Heracles Almelo23 October 2026
- Almere City – Roda23 October 2026
- Den Bosch – MVV Maastricht23 October 2026
- De Graafschap – Waalwijk23 October 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Jong PSV23 October 2026
- Vitesse – Emmen23 October 2026
- Dordrecht – VVV-Venlo24 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport according to our model?
The model gives Jong AZ a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong AZ 54%, draw 21%, Helmond Sport 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
The model expects 2.22 goals (xG) for Jong AZ and 1.39 for Helmond Sport, 3.61 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Jong AZ or draw (1X) 76%, Helmond Sport or draw (X2) 46% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.