01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Heracles Almelo or draw (X2)60%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Eerste Divisie12°39,3 mm45 km/h
Läs på svenska
NAC BredaPossession & high press1–1
Heracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Heracles Almelo (37%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.68 (+21 %)
NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo · Eerste Divisie
1 · NAC Breda 34%X 28%37% Heracles Almelo · 2
34%
28%
37%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 23 October 2026): NAC Breda win 34%, draw 28%, Heracles Almelo win 37%. Expected goals (xG): NAC Breda 1.50, Heracles Almelo 1.38. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: NAC Breda or draw 63%, Heracles Almelo or draw 66%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.
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Analysis: NAC Breda – Heracles Almelo
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
NAC Breda, sitting unbeaten in their last five league outings, are set to face a Heracles Almelo side that statistically holds a slight edge according to the model probabilities. Heracles, known for their counter-attack and crosses, have a model-backed 37% chance of winning, slightly better than the hosts' 34%. Despite Breda’s recent resilience and their knack for finding the net in nine consecutive league matches, the expected goals suggest a tight affair, with Breda at 1.50 and Heracles at 1.38.
Given the contrasting styles—Breda's possession and high press against Heracles' counter-attacks—this matchup could hinge on which team executes their strategy more effectively. The projected scorelines are telling: a 1-1 draw appears most probable at 12%, followed by a tight 2-1 or 1-0 outcome. The potential for rain (12.5 mm expected) further complicates the forward play, with the weather likely dampening scoring opportunities and already factored into the model's figures.
While the over 2.5 goals market leans at 55%, there's notable value in the under 2.5 goals with a 21% edge at Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 17% at LeoVegas, all offering odds at 2.68 or 2.6. The data suggests a disciplined, potentially low-scoring clash.
NAC BredaForm WWDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #7xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- Jan Van Den BerghCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.13
- Kamal Deen SowahRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
- Mohamed NassohCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.20
Heracles AlmeloForm LWDWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Sem SchepermanCDMxG 0.24 · xT 0.01
- Damon MiraniCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
- Djevencio Djovairo van der KustCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.18
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: NAC Breda 34% · Draw 28% · Heracles Almelo 37%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - NAC BredaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,03fair 8,38-28 %
MissMatchresultat - Heracles AlmeloBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,25fair 9,84-47 %
MissMatch prediction: NAC Breda – Heracles Almelo
Predicted score matrix
Heracles Almelo →
NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–17.4%
0–25.4%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–08.1%
1–112.0%
1–28.0%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.3%
2–18.7%
2–26.0%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.4%
3–23.0%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,50–1,38
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.68EV+21%
Over 2,555%
@1.46
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Heracles Almelo or draw (X2)60%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jean-Paul N'djoli to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jean-Paul N'djoli to score24%
- Djevencio Djovairo van der Kust to be booked26%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.545% probability@2.68BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.60LeoVegasEV+17%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · NAC Breda | X | 2 · Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.65 | EV+ 2% 3.60 | 2.32 |
| LeoVegas | 2.60 | EV+ 6% 3.75 | 2.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.65 | EV+ 2% 3.60 | 2.32 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Heracles Almelo win since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 2.75 to 2.35 (−15%).
1+13 %
44 %34 %
2.30 → 2.60
X+9 %
30 %20 %
3.45 → 3.75
2-15 %
41 %31 %
2.75 → 2.35
Over 2,5-4 %
68 %58 %
1.50 → 1.44
LeoVegas · 26 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- NAC Breda have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
NAC Breda
Heracles Almelo
NAC Breda (22–19)
Heracles Almelo (36–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
NAC Breda
Heracles Almelo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
NAC Breda
Heracles Almelo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | NAC Breda | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 28 |
| xPoints | 17.2 | 23.6 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 0.88 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | NAC Breda | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| xTA per match | 0.95 | 0.79 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 36 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 393 | 333 |
| Passes against per match | 285 | 264 |
| Switches of play per match | 27 | 25.8 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 39 |
| Set pieces | NAC Breda | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.3 | 8.4 |
| Corners against per match | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| Other | NAC Breda | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda) | Fabian de Keijzer (Heracles Almelo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 23 |
| Save % | 58% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Volendam – Jong Utrecht23 October 2026
- TOP Oss – Jong Ajax23 October 2026
- Jong AZ – Helmond Sport23 October 2026
- Almere City – Roda23 October 2026
- Den Bosch – MVV Maastricht23 October 2026
- De Graafschap – Waalwijk23 October 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Jong PSV23 October 2026
- Vitesse – Emmen23 October 2026
- Dordrecht – VVV-Venlo24 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo according to our model?
The model gives Heracles Almelo a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NAC Breda 34%, draw 28%, Heracles Almelo 37%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in NAC Breda vs Heracles Almelo?
The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for NAC Breda and 1.38 for Heracles Almelo, 2.88 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
NAC Breda or draw (1X) 63%, Heracles Almelo or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.