01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance VVV-Venlo or draw (X2)64%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Eerste Divisie11°16,9 mm45 km/h
Läs på svenska
DordrechtPossession control2–4
VVV-VenloCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · VVV-Venlo (45%)
Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo · Eerste Divisie
1 · Dordrecht 30%X 26%45% VVV-Venlo · 2
30%
26%
45%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo (Eerste Divisie, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Dordrecht win 30%, draw 26%, VVV-Venlo win 45%. Expected goals (xG): Dordrecht 1.63, VVV-Venlo 1.74. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%. Double chance: Dordrecht or draw 55%, VVV-Venlo or draw 70%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Dordrecht – VVV-Venlo
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The text contains an unsupported claim: the specific betting odds "2.20 with Bet365" are not provided in the facts and should be removed.
Corrected text:
VVV-Venlo's scoring prowess might just tip the scales in their favor as they face Dordrecht, despite the latter's historical edge in their recent encounters. The visitors have found the net in 12 successive league matches, a streak that underscores their attacking efficiency. This clash pits Dordrecht's possession-based style against VVV's counter-attacking dynamism, a tactical contrast that often results in high-scoring affairs. Indeed, the models suggest a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals, and with both teams predicted to score at a 67% clip, goals seem inevitable.
Although the head-to-head record leans heavily towards Dordrecht with three wins from their last four matchups, the sample size is too small to overshadow the current form and statistical indicators. VVV-Venlo's xG of 1.7 per match outshines Dordrecht's 1.1, hinting at their ability to create and convert more quality chances. Coupled with a slightly better defensive record (xGA of 1.6 compared to Dordrecht's 1.7), the visitors have the upper hand.
The expected goals for this match stand at 1.63 for Dordrecht and 1.74 for VVV-Venlo, painting a picture of a closely contested encounter, yet one where the visitors might edge it. With a model probability of 45% for a VVV-Venlo win compared to Dordrecht's 30%, the visitors are favored. The most likely scorelines are tightly clustered around 1-1 and 1-2 outcomes, reflecting both teams' propensity to find the back of the net.
Rain could dampen offensive fluidity, but it's already factored into the model's projection. Given the metrics and recent form, a 1-2 scoreline in favor of VVV-Venlo looks promising, aligning with their superior form and offensive consistency.
DordrechtForm LWDLW
League ranking xG #20xGA #17xT #18xP/match #17Points #17
Key players
- Ayoub OuarghiCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.13
- Lorenzo RiccioCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Stan HenderikxCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
VVV-VenloForm WLWWD
League ranking xG #6xGA #13xT #12xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.35 · xT 0.00
- Edhy Yvan ZulianiRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.29
- Leon Gino SchmidtFxG 0.67 · xT 0.26
Final score
2 – 4
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Dordrecht 30% · Draw 26% · VVV-Venlo 45%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - VVV VenloBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,16fair 6,22-1 %
HitMatchresultat - DordrechtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,86fair 7,07-17 %
MissMatch prediction: Dordrecht – VVV-Venlo
Predicted score matrix
VVV-Venlo →
Dordrecht →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.7%
0–15.7%
0–25.2%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.9%
1
1–05.3%
1–110.0%
1–28.5%
1–34.9%
1–4+3.2%
2
2–04.6%
2–18.0%
2–26.9%
2–34.0%
2–4+2.6%
3
3–02.5%
3–14.3%
3–23.8%
3–32.2%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.5%
4+–22.2%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-28%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-16%
Expected goals
1,63–1,74
Both teams to score
67%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
@2.42
Over 2,565%
@1.52
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance VVV-Venlo or draw (X2)64%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Nassim Ait Mouhou to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score67%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Robin van Asten to score25%
- Lorenzo Riccio to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · VVV-Venlo45% probability@2.55BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- 2 · VVV-Venlo45% probability@2.55NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
- 2 · VVV-Venlo45% probability@2.50LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dordrecht | X | 2 · VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | 3.45 | EV+ 14% 2.55 |
| LeoVegas | 2.45 | 3.60 | EV+ 12% 2.50 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | 3.45 | EV+ 14% 2.55 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Dordrecht win since 19 October — the odds have shortened from 2.95 to 2.45 (−17%).
1-17 %
39 %29 %
2.95 → 2.45
X-5 %
30 %20 %
3.80 → 3.60
2+22 %
46 %36 %
2.05 → 2.50
Over 2,5+3 %
68 %58 %
1.45 → 1.50
LeoVegas · 18 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesDordrecht 3Draw 0VVV-Venlo 1
Goals: 10–5 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- VVV Venlo have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dordrecht
VVV-Venlo
Dordrecht (14–27)
VVV-Venlo (30–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dordrecht
VVV-Venlo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dordrecht
VVV-Venlo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Dordrecht | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 22 |
| xPoints | 12.7 | 16.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Dordrecht | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.99 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 356 | 330 |
| Passes against per match | 324 | 346 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.7 | 27.6 |
| Long balls per match | 42 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Dordrecht | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 3.8 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.77 |
| Other | Dordrecht | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Calvin Owen Harm Raatsie (Dordrecht) | Youri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 35 |
| Save % | 61% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 37% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Volendam – Jong Utrecht23 October 2026
- TOP Oss – Jong Ajax23 October 2026
- Jong AZ – Helmond Sport23 October 2026
- NAC Breda – Heracles Almelo23 October 2026
- Almere City – Roda23 October 2026
- Den Bosch – MVV Maastricht23 October 2026
- De Graafschap – Waalwijk23 October 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Jong PSV23 October 2026
- Vitesse – Emmen23 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo according to our model?
The model gives VVV-Venlo a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dordrecht 30%, draw 26%, VVV-Venlo 45%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo?
The model expects 1.63 goals (xG) for Dordrecht and 1.74 for VVV-Venlo, 3.37 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Dordrecht or draw (1X) 55%, VVV-Venlo or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.