Vitesse vs Emmen: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie23 October 202611°34,3 mm43 km/h

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VitesseLow block & direct

0–2

EmmenPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Emmen (37%)

1 · Vitesse 36%X 27%37% Emmen · 2

36%

27%

37%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Vitesse vs Emmen (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 23 October 2026): Vitesse win 36%, draw 27%, Emmen win 37%. Expected goals (xG): Vitesse 1.65, Emmen 1.59. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. Double chance: Vitesse or draw 63%, Emmen or draw 64%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.

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Analysis: Vitesse – Emmen

Sofia Andersson · 22 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Emmen's high pressing game looks poised to challenge Vitesse's direct approach, especially given the visitors' slight superiority in expected goals and defensive metrics. The model sees both teams as almost evenly matched, with Vitesse holding a 36% probability of winning and Emmen just edging ahead at 37%.

Since 2023, Vitesse are unbeaten against Emmen in their four head-to-head clashes, recording two wins and two draws. However, this limited sample size pales against current form and statistical indicators. Emmen's possession-based play and their higher xG per match at 1.9 suggest they're more likely to create quality chances. Vitesse, while direct, may struggle to penetrate Emmen's defense, which allows an average of just 1.1 xGA per match.

The forecasted rain should temper goal-scoring opportunities, yet both teams are statistically likely to find the net. The model gives a 63% probability for over 2.5 goals, and a 65% chance for both teams to score. Emmen's ability to control the game with their pressing could exploit any defensive lapses from Vitesse, reflected in the shared likelihood of 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines.

Despite Vitesse's historical edge over their visitors, the numbers align more closely with a narrow Emmen advantage. The match is finely balanced, but the visitors' current edge in xPoints and xGA provides them with a slight upper hand. Thus, a 1-2 win for Emmen fits both the most likely outcomes and the underlying data patterns.

For bettors seeking value, Betfair offers odds of 2.70 on an Emmen victory, slightly misaligned with the model's lean towards the visitors. This presents a favorable opportunity for those siding with Emmen's form and tactical prowess.

Vitesse

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #6xP/match #6Points #6

Key players

Ricardo-Felipe SchwarzCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.30
Naoufal BannisFxG 0.68 · xT -0.04
Nathangelo Alexandro MarkeloRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.22

Emmen

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #3xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Nelson Efosa AmadinRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.10
Luca EverinkRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
Casper StaringCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13

Final score

0 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Vitesse 36% · Draw 27% · Emmen 37%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - EmmenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,74fair 7,40-9 %

Miss

Matchresultat - VitesseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,43fair 6,91-21 %

Miss

Match prediction: Vitesse – Emmen

Predicted score matrix

Emmen →

Vitesse →

0–04.2%

0–15.9%

0–25.0%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.5%

1–06.2%

1–110.6%

1–28.2%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.5%

2–05.3%

2–18.5%

2–26.7%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.9%

3–14.6%

3–23.7%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.1%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.8%

4+–22.2%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-18%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,65–1,59

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.42

Over 2,563%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Emmen or draw (X2)61%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Emmen or draw (X2)61%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Jack Cooper-Love to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Jack Cooper-Love to score38%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Emmen37% probability@2.85LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
2 · Emmen37% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
2 · Emmen37% probability@2.80NordicbetEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Vitesse	X	2 · Emmen
Betsafe	2.25	3.45	EV+ 3% 2.80
LeoVegas	2.25	3.55	EV+ 5% 2.85
Nordicbet	2.25	3.45	EV+ 3% 2.80

Odds updated 23 Oct, 12:36

Odds movement

1-5 %

42 %37 %

2.38 → 2.25

X+3 %

28 %23 %

3.45 → 3.55

2+8 %

37 %32 %

2.65 → 2.85

Over 2,5-2 %

63 %58 %

1.55 → 1.52

LeoVegas · 17 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Vitesse 2Draw 2Emmen 0

Goals: 12–8 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vitesse

Emmen

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vitesse (16–15)

Emmen (24–19)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vitesse

Emmen

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vitesse

Emmen

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vitesse	Emmen
Points	17	22
xPoints	16.6	18
xG per match	1.6	1.9
xGA per match	1.4	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.11

Playing style	Vitesse	Emmen
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.34
Field tilt	0.5	0.61
xT per match	1.3	1.5
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	27	30
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.33
Entries into the box per match	14	17
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.72	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.74
Passes per match	308	399
Passes against per match	362	322
Switches of play per match	27.3	23.6
Long balls per match	36	30

Set pieces	Vitesse	Emmen
xG from free kicks	0.05	0
Corners per match	5.5	6.5
Corners against per match	4.3	2.9
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.72

Other	Vitesse	Emmen
Throw-in control	0.71	0.74

The goalkeepers	Connor van den Berg (Vitesse)	Sam Karssies (Emmen)
Saves	29	32
Save %	76%	64%
xG prevented	74%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vitesse

Fixtures, form & tips

Emmen

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vitesse vs Emmen according to our model?

The model gives Emmen a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vitesse 36%, draw 27%, Emmen 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Vitesse vs Emmen?

The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for Vitesse and 1.59 for Emmen, 3.24 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Vitesse or draw (1X) 63%, Emmen or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.