Eerste Divisie11°37,3 mm47 km/h

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    Den BoschDen BoschPossession & high press
    2–2
    MVV MaastrichtMVV MaastrichtPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Den Bosch (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · MVV Maastricht @ 4.10 (+19 %)

    Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Den Bosch 46%X 25%29% MVV Maastricht · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 23 October 2026): Den Bosch win 46%, draw 25%, MVV Maastricht win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Den Bosch 1.78, MVV Maastricht 1.35. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Den Bosch or draw 71%, MVV Maastricht or draw 54%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Den Bosch – MVV Maastricht

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    The recent head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV Maastricht is hardly definitive, with the teams splitting results over four matches — one win for the hosts, two for the visitors, and a draw. This limited sample size doesn’t overshadow current form, which sees Maastricht struggling with three consecutive losses. Den Bosch, meanwhile, shows a slight statistical edge in the expected points metric this season, 15.2 against 11.3, hinting at underlying performance strength not immediately reflected in the standings.

    Den Bosch's possession and high pressing style matches up intriguingly against Maastricht's control-oriented approach. With expected goals suggesting a 1.78 to 1.35 tilt towards Den Bosch, the home side appears to have the upper hand in creative potential. Their xG per match of 1.6, compared to Maastricht's 1.0, reinforces this view. However, both teams concede fairly evenly, with Den Bosch allowing 1.6 xGA per match against Maastricht's 1.4. The rain-soaked conditions could dampen offensive fluidity but are factored into the prediction models.

    The match's dynamics lean towards a moderate goal output, with a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood of both teams finding the net. The model favors a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome at 11%, closely followed by a marginal 2-1 win for Den Bosch at 9%. The hosts' 46% win probability suggest they are rightly favorites, but the model suggests a 25% chance of a draw which shouldn't be ignored.

    Betting value is intriguing: backing MVV Maastricht away at odds of 4.1 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, or 3.95 with LeoVegas, shows a notable edge. Despite their poor form, these odds offer a 19% and 15% value edge, respectively. For those with an appetite for risk, this could be a calculated angle worth exploring.

    Den BoschDen Bosch
    Form WLDWW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #16xT #4xP/match #10Points #11
    Key players
    • Hessel EikelboomCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
    • Mees LarosLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.17
    • Sebastian Karlsson GrachFxG 0.46 · xT 0.00
    MVV MaastrichtMVV Maastricht
    Form LWLLL
    League ranking xG #21xGA #7xT #21xP/match #18Points #8
    Key players
    • Finn Jesper DickeCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
    • Sil van der WegenRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    • Toni VinogradacFxG 0.23 · xT 0.04
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Den Bosch 46% · Draw 25% · MVV Maastricht 29%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - MVVBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,77fair 10,43-6 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC Den BoschBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,92fair 6,01-35 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Den Bosch – MVV Maastricht

    Predicted score matrix

    MVV Maastricht →
    Den Bosch →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.7%
    0–15.6%
    0–24.0%
    0–31.8%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–07.4%
    1–110.8%
    1–27.1%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.9%
    2–19.3%
    2–26.3%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–04.1%
    3–15.5%
    3–23.8%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–02.7%
    4+–13.7%
    4+–22.5%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-07%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,78–1,35
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,539%
    @2.68EV+5%
    Over 2,561%
    @1.44

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Den Bosch to win46%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.52

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Den Bosch to win46%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Sebastian Hugo Karlsson Grach to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Sebastian Hugo Karlsson Grach to score22%
    • Hessel Eikelboom to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · MVV Maastricht29% probability@4.10BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
    • 2 · MVV Maastricht29% probability@4.10NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
    • 2 · MVV Maastricht29% probability@3.90LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Den BoschX2 · MVV Maastricht
    Betsafe1.70
    EV+ 3%
    4.05
    EV+ 19%
    4.10
    LeoVegas1.73
    EV+ 4%
    4.10
    EV+ 13%
    3.90
    Nordicbet1.70
    EV+ 3%
    4.05
    EV+ 19%
    4.10

    Odds updated 23 Oct, 08:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 2.85 to 2.60 (−9%).

    10 %
    57 %52 %

    1.73 → 1.73

    X0 %
    24 %19 %

    4.10 → 4.10

    2+5 %
    26 %21 %

    3.70 → 3.90

    Over 2,5+6 %
    69 %64 %

    1.36 → 1.44

    LeoVegas · 19 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Den Bosch 1Draw 1MVV Maastricht 2
    Goals: 6–10 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • MVV Maastricht have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Den Bosch
    MVV Maastricht
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Den Bosch (16–19)
    MVV Maastricht (14–21)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Den Bosch
    Jeffry Fortes: 196 passningar, xT 1.17FortesHessel Eikelboom: 187 passningar, xT 0.29EikelboomSilvan Bröker: 150 passningar, xT 0.22BrökerMees Laros: 148 passningar, xT 0.87LarosStan Maas: 137 passningar, xT 0.17MaasPepijn van de Merbel: 116 passningar, xT 0.23MerbelSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 93 passningar, xT 0.28BarglanDevon Findell De Corte: 90 passningar, xT 0.84CorteKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 77 passningar, xT 1.71BokoloBohao Wang: 55 passningar, xT 0.03WangJack Winston De Vries: 34 passningar, xT 0.48Vries
    MVV Maastricht
    Finn Jesper Dicke: 312 passningar, xT 0.43DickeSven Bouland: 274 passningar, xT 0.38BoulandSil van der Wegen: 211 passningar, xT 0.1WegenDelano Asante: 156 passningar, xT 0.17AsanteHugo Wentges: 154 passningar, xT 0.35WentgesElias Sierra-Cappelletti: 145 passningar, xT 0.01Sierra-CappellettiLennerd Daneels: 127 passningar, xT 0.14DaneelsOlivier Dumont: 127 passningar, xT 0.05DumontRobert Klaasen: 124 passningar, xT 0.07KlaasenNoa El Hamdaoui: 77 passningar, xT -0.07HamdaouiMika Luijendijk: 64 passningar, xT 0.05Luijendijk
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Den Bosch
    Jeffry Fortes: 196 passningar, xT 1.17FortesHessel Eikelboom: 187 passningar, xT 0.29EikelboomSilvan Bröker: 150 passningar, xT 0.22BrökerMees Laros: 148 passningar, xT 0.87LarosStan Maas: 137 passningar, xT 0.17MaasPepijn van de Merbel: 116 passningar, xT 0.23MerbelSheddy Ezzeldin Barglan: 93 passningar, xT 0.28BarglanDevon Findell De Corte: 90 passningar, xT 0.84CorteKévin Monzialo Bokolo: 77 passningar, xT 1.71BokoloBohao Wang: 55 passningar, xT 0.03WangJack Winston De Vries: 34 passningar, xT 0.48Vries
    MVV Maastricht
    Finn Jesper Dicke: 312 passningar, xT 0.43DickeSven Bouland: 274 passningar, xT 0.38BoulandSil van der Wegen: 211 passningar, xT 0.1WegenDelano Asante: 156 passningar, xT 0.17AsanteHugo Wentges: 154 passningar, xT 0.35WentgesElias Sierra-Cappelletti: 145 passningar, xT 0.01Sierra-CappellettiLennerd Daneels: 127 passningar, xT 0.14DaneelsOlivier Dumont: 127 passningar, xT 0.05DumontRobert Klaasen: 124 passningar, xT 0.07KlaasenNoa El Hamdaoui: 77 passningar, xT -0.07HamdaouiMika Luijendijk: 64 passningar, xT 0.05Luijendijk

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDen BoschMVV Maastricht
    Points1416
    xPoints15.211.3
    xG per match1.61
    xGA per match1.61.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.240.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.280.11
    Playing styleDen BoschMVV Maastricht
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.50.54
    xT per match1.40.76
    xTA per match1.21
    Won balls, offensive half2824
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.340.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.31
    Entries into the box per match148
    Entries into the box against1414
    Pass completion %0.690.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.72
    Passes per match282367
    Passes against per match315316
    Switches of play per match20.528.8
    Long balls per match3742
    Set piecesDen BoschMVV Maastricht
    xG from free kicks0.040.03
    Corners per match7.54.1
    Corners against per match4.64.6
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.2
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.46
    OtherDen BoschMVV Maastricht
    Throw-in control0.760.73
    The goalkeepersPepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)Hugo Wentges (MVV Maastricht)
    Saves4328
    Save %72%58%
    xG prevented54%45%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Den Bosch
    Fixtures, form & tips
    MVV Maastricht
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht according to our model?

    The model gives Den Bosch a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Den Bosch 46%, draw 25%, MVV Maastricht 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht?

    The model expects 1.78 goals (xG) for Den Bosch and 1.35 for MVV Maastricht, 3.14 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Den Bosch or draw (1X) 71%, MVV Maastricht or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 75%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.