FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

Eerste Divisie23 October 202611°21,6 mm43 km/h

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FC EindhovenPossession control

1–2

Jong PSVPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Jong PSV (40%)

1 · FC Eindhoven 35%X 25%40% Jong PSV · 2

35%

25%

40%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 23 October 2026): FC Eindhoven win 35%, draw 25%, Jong PSV win 40%. Expected goals (xG): FC Eindhoven 1.60, Jong PSV 1.72. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. Double chance: FC Eindhoven or draw 60%, Jong PSV or draw 65%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.

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Analysis: FC Eindhoven – Jong PSV

Sofia Andersson · 22 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Possession control meets high press as FC Eindhoven hosts Jong PSV in a clash that promises to test both teams' tactical flexibility. While Eindhoven has dominated the head-to-head record since 2023 with four wins in as many matches, this small sample size doesn't overshadow the visitors' superior form and underlying numbers this season. With Jong PSV claiming an edge in points, expected points, and expected goals, the visitors come into this match as slight favorites.

The expected goals model tilts towards PSV U21, forecasting a narrow lead with 1.72 xG compared to the home side's 1.60. This difference mirrors the visitors' ability to generate more goal-scoring opportunities, a critical factor when the elements — 14.2 mm of rain expected — could dampen overall goal-scoring efficiency. However, the damp conditions and Eindhoven's possession game might limit the visitors' high press, creating an intriguing tactical battle where patience could outweigh aggression.

Despite the visitors' statistical edge, Eindhoven's knack for exploiting mistakes, as evidenced by their clean sweep in recent encounters, can't be dismissed. Yet, with both teams averaging over 1.5 xGA per match, defensive reliability is questionable. The model suggests a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% likelihood of both teams finding the net, emphasizing the probability of an open contest.

The betting landscape reveals tangible value on the visitors. Jong PSV's win at odds of 2.65 with bookmakers like Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet offers a 7% edge according to the model's 40% win probability. While head-to-head history favors Eindhoven, it appears the scales are tipping towards Jong PSV this time around, particularly with the model's most likely scoreline being a tight 1-1. The value on offer is notable, and those siding with the high-pressing visitors will find this the sharpest angle to consider.

FC Eindhoven

Form WLDLL

League ranking xG #22xGA #18xT #22xP/match #20Points #15

Key players

Guus BeaumontCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
Mika de JongeCMxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
Rayan BuifrahiCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.09

Jong PSV

Form LDLDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #15xP/match #14Points #12

Key players

Jordy BawuahCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
Madi MonamayCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Essien BasseyRBxG 0.04 · xT 0.17

Final score

1 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: FC Eindhoven 35% · Draw 25% · Jong PSV 40%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Jong PSVBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,63fair 6,32-11 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FC EindhovenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,15fair 7,31-30 %

Miss

Match prediction: FC Eindhoven – Jong PSV

Predicted score matrix

Jong PSV →

FC Eindhoven →

0–03.9%

0–15.9%

0–25.3%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.9%

1–05.5%

1–110.2%

1–28.5%

1–34.9%

1–4+3.1%

2–04.6%

2–18.0%

2–26.9%

2–33.9%

2–4+2.5%

3–02.5%

3–14.3%

3–23.7%

3–32.1%

3–4+1.3%

4+–01.4%

4+–12.4%

4+–22.1%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-16%

Expected goals

1,60–1,72

Both teams to score

66%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

@2.72

Over 2,565%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Jong PSV or draw (X2)64%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Jong PSV or draw (X2)64%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Shuryjano Cornecion to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score66%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Shuryjano Cornecion to score23%
Xander Blomme to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Jong PSV40% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Jong PSV40% probability@2.65NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
2 · Jong PSV40% probability@2.60LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · FC Eindhoven	X	2 · Jong PSV
Betsafe	2.32	3.60	EV+ 7% 2.65
LeoVegas	2.35	3.65	EV+ 5% 2.60
Nordicbet	2.32	3.60	EV+ 7% 2.65

Odds updated 23 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

1+11 %

44 %39 %

2.12 → 2.35

X-4 %

27 %22 %

3.80 → 3.65

2-7 %

37 %32 %

2.80 → 2.60

LeoVegas · 22 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

FC Eindhoven 4Draw 0Jong PSV 0

Goals: 9–1 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FC Eindhoven

Jong PSV

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

FC Eindhoven (15–23)

Jong PSV (15–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FC Eindhoven

Jong PSV

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FC Eindhoven

Jong PSV

The teams in numbers

Performance	FC Eindhoven	Jong PSV
Points	11	13
xPoints	12.2	14.4
xG per match	0.89	1.4
xGA per match	1.7	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.23

Playing style	FC Eindhoven	Jong PSV
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.45	0.55
xT per match	0.63	1
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	26	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.29
Entries into the box per match	10	12
Entries into the box against	14	15
Pass completion %	0.7	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.75
Passes per match	300	422
Passes against per match	350	318
Switches of play per match	17.6	25.9
Long balls per match	33	39

Set pieces	FC Eindhoven	Jong PSV
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.01
Corners per match	3.4	5
Corners against per match	6.2	5.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.62

Other	FC Eindhoven	Jong PSV
Throw-in control	0.72	0.76

The goalkeepers	Jort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven)	Khadim Ngom (Jong PSV)
Saves	34	18
Save %	60%	72%
xG prevented	35%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

FC Eindhoven

Fixtures, form & tips

Jong PSV

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV according to our model?

The model gives Jong PSV a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Eindhoven 35%, draw 25%, Jong PSV 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV?

The model expects 1.60 goals (xG) for FC Eindhoven and 1.72 for Jong PSV, 3.33 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

FC Eindhoven or draw (1X) 60%, Jong PSV or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.