01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Volendam to win67%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Eerste Divisie11°20,0 mm37 km/h
Läs på svenska
VolendamPossession control6–2
Jong UtrechtPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Volendam (67%)
Volendam vs Jong Utrecht · Eerste Divisie
1 · Volendam 67%X 19%13% Jong Utrecht · 2
67%
19%
13%
Prediction summary
Final score 6–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Volendam vs Jong Utrecht (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 23 October 2026): Volendam win 67%, draw 19%, Jong Utrecht win 13%. Expected goals (xG): Volendam 2.27, Jong Utrecht 0.95. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Volendam or draw 87%, Jong Utrecht or draw 33%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.
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Analysis: Volendam – Jong Utrecht
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Volendam's control-oriented playing style is set to dominate against a struggling Jong Utrecht side, who have lost their last three matches. The home team’s strategy of holding possession and dictating the tempo plays into their impressive record, winning 83% of home matches across 24 contests. This evening's matchup leans heavily in favor of the hosts, not just in terms of tactics but also in the likely outcome, with the model giving them a 67% chance of victory.
The expected goals tell a clear story: Volendam are predicted to score 2.27 goals compared to Utrecht U21's 0.95. This is further supported by Volendam’s superior xG of 1.8 per match, while the visitors lag behind at 1.2. Utrecht's defensive woes are highlighted by their xGA of 1.8, which suggests they will struggle to contain the home side’s attacking prowess. The rain might dampen the pitch, but the forecasted 9.8 mm is already factored into the model's calculations, keeping Volendam's edge intact.
The head-to-head record since 2023 is limited, with only two encounters, both won by Volendam. While this sample size is small and less informative than current form and xG data, it still nods to the home team's dominance. The draw has a modest 19% chance, but the visitors' recent form suggests they are unlikely to disrupt Volendam’s rhythm. Common scoreline predictions like 2-0 and 2-1, each at 10%, reinforce the anticipated control by the hosts.
For those considering a bet, there is value in backing Volendam at odds of 1.615 with LeoVegas, offering a 9% edge according to the model. Betsafe and Nordicbet also present an 8% edge at odds of 1.6. With over 2.5 goals sitting at a 62% probability, a high-scoring affair in favor of Volendam is where the smart money lies.
VolendamForm LWLWD
League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #11xP/match #13Points #7
Key players
- Henk VeermanFxG 0.55 · xT 0.12
- Luca BlondeauCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
- Alex PlatCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.18
Jong UtrechtForm WWLLL
League ranking xG #19xGA #21xT #19xP/match #19Points #21
Key players
- Noa DundasFxG 0.25 · xT 0.04
- Wessel KooyCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.06
- Massien GhaddariFxG 0.15 · xT 0.11
Final score
6 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Volendam 67% · Draw 19% · Jong Utrecht 13%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FC VolendamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,63fair 4,43-18 %
HitMatchresultat - Jong FC UtrechtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,45fair 25,75-63 %
MissMatch prediction: Volendam – Jong Utrecht
Predicted score matrix
Jong Utrecht →
Volendam →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.2%
0–13.5%
0–21.8%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–08.8%
1–18.8%
1–24.1%
1–31.3%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.3%
2–19.8%
2–24.6%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.8%
3–17.4%
3–23.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–07.6%
4+–17.2%
4+–23.4%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-19%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,27–0,95
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.85EV+7%
Over 2,562%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Volendam to win67%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Henk Veerman to score41%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Henk Veerman to score41%
- Per Kloosterboer to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Volendam67% probability@1.70LeoVegasEV+15%reference odds
- 1 · Volendam67% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- 1 · Volendam67% probability@1.65NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Volendam | X | 2 · Jong Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 11% 1.65 | 4.15 | 4.25 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 15% 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 11% 1.65 | 4.15 | 4.25 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Jong Utrecht win since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 4.75 to 4.00 (−16%).
1+12 %
62 %52 %
1.52 → 1.70
X-9 %
26 %16 %
4.50 → 4.10
2-16 %
26 %16 %
4.75 → 4.00
LeoVegas · 23 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesVolendam 2Draw 0Jong Utrecht 0
Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- Utrecht U21 have lost 3 in a row.
- FC Volendam win 83% of their home matches all-time (24 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Volendam
Jong Utrecht
Volendam (23–18)
Jong Utrecht (17–25)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Volendam
Jong Utrecht
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Volendam
Jong Utrecht
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Volendam | Jong Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 7 |
| xPoints | 14.9 | 12.3 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Volendam | Jong Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.97 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 367 | 285 |
| Passes against per match | 327 | 366 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.7 | 23.2 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Volendam | Jong Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.32 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 7.2 | 6.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| Other | Volendam | Jong Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Hidde Jurjus (Volendam) | Mees Eppink (Jong Utrecht) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 23 |
| Save % | 78% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- TOP Oss – Jong Ajax23 October 2026
- Jong AZ – Helmond Sport23 October 2026
- NAC Breda – Heracles Almelo23 October 2026
- Almere City – Roda23 October 2026
- Den Bosch – MVV Maastricht23 October 2026
- De Graafschap – Waalwijk23 October 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Jong PSV23 October 2026
- Vitesse – Emmen23 October 2026
- Dordrecht – VVV-Venlo24 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Volendam vs Jong Utrecht according to our model?
The model gives Volendam a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Volendam 67%, draw 19%, Jong Utrecht 13%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Volendam vs Jong Utrecht?
The model expects 2.27 goals (xG) for Volendam and 0.95 for Jong Utrecht, 3.22 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Volendam or draw (1X) 87%, Jong Utrecht or draw (X2) 33% and no draw (12) 81%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.