01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Waalwijk or draw (X2)70%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Eerste Divisie10°17,1 mm39 km/h
Läs på svenska
De GraafschapPossession control1–1
WaalwijkPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Waalwijk (42%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.85 (+4 %)
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk · Eerste Divisie
1 · De Graafschap 31%X 27%42% Waalwijk · 2
31%
27%
42%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk (Eerste Divisie, Friday, 23 October 2026): De Graafschap win 31%, draw 27%, Waalwijk win 42%. Expected goals (xG): De Graafschap 1.55, Waalwijk 1.95. Most likely score: 1-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%. Double chance: De Graafschap or draw 58%, Waalwijk or draw 69%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.
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Analysis: De Graafschap – Waalwijk
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The TEXT contains a factual error: the scoreline "2-1" is listed under home-away format (De Graafschap–RKC Waalwijk), meaning a 2-1 scoreline would be a home win for De Graafschap, not a "2-1 victory for the visitors." The correct scoreline suggesting an away win would be "1-2."
Corrected TEXT:
RKC Waalwijk's 42% win probability stands out in a clash where they're slightly favored over De Graafschap, who have just a 31% chance of victory. Despite the home side's robust history of winning 60% of their home matches, recent form and expected goals both tilt in favor of the visitors. Waalwijk's possession and high-press style might exploit De Graafschap's defensive vulnerabilities, reflected in the hosts' higher xGA of 1.9 per match compared to Waalwijk's 1.2.
With two encounters since 2023, the head-to-head record is split, so it doesn't weigh heavily against the clear lean towards Waalwijk. The model tips a 1-1 or 1-2 scoreline as most probable, each at 9%, but the expected goals suggest more action, with a 68% chance for over 2.5 goals and both teams likely to get on the scoresheet. This indicates a match potentially leaning towards a 1-2 victory for the visitors, especially considering Waalwijk's slight but consistent edges in xPoints and xG per match.
For bettors, the value lies with Waalwijk at odds of 2.45 available across Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet, offering a 4% edge per the model. This represents a sharp angle given the away side's statistical advantages and market oversight.
De GraafschapForm LWDWL
League ranking xG #18xGA #22xT #16xP/match #22Points #16
Key players
- Joran HardemanCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.11
- Donny WarmerdamCDMxG 0.13 · xT 0.06
- Gabriele FinocchiaroCAMxG 0.26 · xT 0.21
WaalwijkForm WLDLD
League ranking xG #16xGA #5xT #5xP/match #15Points #9
Key players
- Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.39
- Faissal Al MazyaniRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
- Liam van GelderenCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: De Graafschap 31% · Draw 27% · Waalwijk 42%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - RKC WaalwijkBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,76fair 5,04-6 %
MissMatchresultat - De GraafschapBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,44fair 8,08-33 %
MissMatch prediction: De Graafschap – Waalwijk
Predicted score matrix
Waalwijk →
De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.3%
0–15.6%
0–25.8%
0–33.7%
0–4+2.9%
1
1–04.4%
1–19.4%
1–28.9%
1–35.8%
1–4+4.4%
2
2–03.6%
2–17.1%
2–26.9%
2–34.5%
2–4+3.4%
3
3–01.9%
3–13.6%
3–23.5%
3–32.3%
3–4+1.8%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.9%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+1.0%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-19%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-17%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.1-36%
Expected goals
1,55–1,95
Both teams to score
68%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,532%
@2.92
Over 2,568%
@1.39
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Waalwijk or draw (X2)70%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Thijs van Leeuwen to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score68%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Julian Kania to score26%
- Donny Warmerdam to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw27% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- X · Draw27% probability@3.85LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
- X · Draw27% probability@3.85NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · De Graafschap | X | 2 · Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.62 | EV+ 4% 3.85 | 2.32 |
| LeoVegas | 2.55 | EV+ 4% 3.85 | 2.30 |
| Nordicbet | 2.62 | EV+ 4% 3.85 | 2.32 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+9 %
41 %36 %
2.35 → 2.55
X-1 %
26 %21 %
3.90 → 3.85
2-6 %
40 %35 %
2.45 → 2.30
LeoVegas · 20 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesDe Graafschap 1Draw 0Waalwijk 1
Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 5,5)
Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.
Key facts
- De Graafschap win 60% of their home matches all-time (43 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
De Graafschap
Waalwijk
De Graafschap (14–25)
Waalwijk (20–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
De Graafschap
Waalwijk
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
De Graafschap
Waalwijk
The teams in numbers
| Performance | De Graafschap | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 15 |
| xPoints | 11.4 | 14.1 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.33 |
| Playing style | De Graafschap | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.86 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 359 | 351 |
| Passes against per match | 297 | 339 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.6 | 25.6 |
| Long balls per match | 44 | 36 |
| Set pieces | De Graafschap | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 6.2 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| Other | De Graafschap | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Ties Wieggers (De Graafschap) | Niek Schiks (Waalwijk) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 43 | 25 |
| Save % | 63% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 37% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Volendam – Jong Utrecht23 October 2026
- TOP Oss – Jong Ajax23 October 2026
- Jong AZ – Helmond Sport23 October 2026
- NAC Breda – Heracles Almelo23 October 2026
- Almere City – Roda23 October 2026
- Den Bosch – MVV Maastricht23 October 2026
- FC Eindhoven – Jong PSV23 October 2026
- Vitesse – Emmen23 October 2026
- Dordrecht – VVV-Venlo24 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins De Graafschap vs Waalwijk according to our model?
The model gives Waalwijk a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: De Graafschap 31%, draw 27%, Waalwijk 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 68% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
The model expects 1.55 goals (xG) for De Graafschap and 1.95 for Waalwijk, 3.49 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
De Graafschap or draw (1X) 58%, Waalwijk or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.