01 · 2 legs
Safe
- PSV Eindhoven to win77%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
EredivisieBingoal Stadion, Den Haag13°13,5 mm35 km/h
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ADO Den HaagLow block & direct2–1
PSV EindhovenPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · PSV Eindhoven (77%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.61 (+13 %)
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie
1 · ADO Den Haag 10%X 13%77% PSV Eindhoven · 2
13%
77%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie, Saturday, 17 October 2026): ADO Den Haag win 10%, draw 13%, PSV Eindhoven win 77%. Expected goals (xG): ADO Den Haag 0.89, PSV Eindhoven 2.66. Most likely score: 0-2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: ADO Den Haag or draw 23%, PSV Eindhoven or draw 90%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: ADO Den Haag – PSV Eindhoven
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: PSV Eindhoven come into their match against ADO Den Haag with a seemingly unstoppable scoring streak, having found the net in 38 consecutive league games. This is a formidable statistic that heavily tilts the odds in favor of the visitors. The model sees PSV as overwhelming favorites with a 77% chance to win, contrasting sharply with the mere 10% probability for the hosts. The expected goals underline this chasm: PSV at 2.66 compared to ADO Den Haag's 0.89.
The playing styles further compound Den Haag's challenge. Their low defence and direct approach will clash with PSV's high-press, possession-based game. This mismatch is expected to unfold under wet conditions, which could suppress goals somewhat but is already reflected in the model.
Interestingly, despite the model predicting a high-scoring outcome (69% chance of over 2.5 goals), there is significant value in betting the under. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.02, while LeoVegas lists it at 3.95. All provide at least a 23% edge, suggesting the potential for a lower-scoring game than the market anticipates. This contradiction between model and market is an intriguing angle for bettors.
The most likely scorelines reinforce PSV's dominance: a 0-2 victory at 10% and 0-3 or 1-2 at 9% each. While Den Haag’s chances look bleak, a 55% likelihood that both teams score indicates they might manage a goal, albeit in a losing effort. The combination of PSV's form and ADO's lack of defensive solidity suggests a final score of 0-2.
For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals on offer is a sharp edge. Betting against the grain when numbers align is where the excitement lies in this seemingly lopsided fixture.
ADO Den HaagForm DLLDD
League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #16xP/match #18Points #17
Key players
- Juho KiloCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
- Pascal MulderCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
- Milan HokkeCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
PSV EindhovenForm WWWLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #6xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Armando ObispoCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
- Ryan FlamingoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
- Guus TilRWxG 0.38 · xT 0.12
Final score
2 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: ADO Den Haag 10% · Draw 13% · PSV Eindhoven 77%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - PSV EindhovenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 2,63fair 3,64-28 %
MissMatchresultat - ADO Den HaagBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 19,22fair 34,05-44 %
MissMatch prediction: ADO Den Haag – PSV Eindhoven
Predicted score matrix
PSV Eindhoven →
ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.1%
0–17.5%
0–210.2%
0–39.0%
0–4+11.4%
1
1–02.4%
1–17.0%
1–29.1%
1–38.0%
1–4+10.1%
2
2–01.1%
2–13.0%
2–24.0%
2–33.6%
2–4+4.5%
3
3–00.3%
3–10.9%
3–21.2%
3–31.1%
3–4+1.3%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.2%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-210%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-39%
- 4.1-38%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
0,89–2,66
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
218%
321%
419%
5+28%
Under 2,531%
@3.61EV+13%
Over 2,569%
@1.27
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- PSV Eindhoven to win77%
- Over 2.5 goals69%
- Ivan Perišić to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals69%
- Ivan Perišić to score29%
- Juho Teemu Kristian Kilo to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.531% probability@3.61BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- Under 2.531% probability@3.61NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
- Under 3.553% probability@2.14PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · ADO Den Haag | X | 2 · PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 9.43 | 6.04 | 1.25 |
| LeoVegas | 8.00 | 6.50 | 1.30 |
| Nordicbet | 9.43 | 6.04 | 1.25 |
| Pinnacle | 8.50 | 6.87 | 1.27 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
1+2 %
14 %9 %
8.37 → 8.50
X+2 %
16 %11 %
6.73 → 6.87
2+2 %
77 %72 %
1.25 → 1.27
Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- PSV Eindhoven have scored in 38 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
ADO Den Haag
PSV Eindhoven
ADO Den Haag (9–19)
PSV Eindhoven (26–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
ADO Den Haag
PSV Eindhoven
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
ADO Den Haag
PSV Eindhoven
The teams in numbers
| Performance | ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 19 |
| xPoints | 6.3 | 14.6 |
| xG per match | 0.82 | 2.5 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.32 | 0.78 |
| xT per match | 0.78 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.68 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 341 | 541 |
| Passes against per match | 398 | 285 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.5 | 29.8 |
| Long balls per match | 42 | 33 |
| Set pieces | ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 7.2 |
| Corners against per match | 6.2 | 2.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| Other | ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Kilian Nikiema (ADO Den Haag) | Matej Kovar (PSV Eindhoven) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 40 | 23 |
| Save % | 68% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven according to our model?
The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: ADO Den Haag 10%, draw 13%, PSV Eindhoven 77%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 69% and under at 31%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven?
The model expects 0.89 goals (xG) for ADO Den Haag and 2.66 for PSV Eindhoven, 3.55 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
ADO Den Haag or draw (1X) 23%, PSV Eindhoven or draw (X2) 90% and no draw (12) 87%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.