01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Feyenoord to win77%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
EredivisieBUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid13°5,9 mm22 km/h
Läs på svenska
TelstarLow block & direct3–4
FeyenoordPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Feyenoord (77%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.00 (+10 %)
Telstar vs Feyenoord · Eredivisie
1 · Telstar 9%X 13%77% Feyenoord · 2
13%
77%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Telstar vs Feyenoord (Eredivisie, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Telstar win 9%, draw 13%, Feyenoord win 77%. Expected goals (xG): Telstar 0.76, Feyenoord 2.51. Most likely score: 0-2 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Telstar or draw 23%, Feyenoord or draw 91%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Telstar – Feyenoord
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
In the small sample of head-to-head meetings since 2022, Feyenoord have comfortably dispatched Telstar twice, indicating a clear dominance. However, the focus here should be more on current form and expected performance metrics. The visitors are riding a strong wave with four straight wins and have found the net in their last 13 league outings, underscoring their attacking prowess.
Telstar, meanwhile, appear to be struggling with a low defensive setup and a direct playing style that contrasts sharply with Feyenoord's possession and high press strategy. This mismatched tactical duel could heavily tilt the game in favor of the visitors. The expected goals reveal a significant gap: 0.76 for Telstar against a formidable 2.51 for the visitors, pointing to a likely goal-rich display from Feyenoord.
The model throws its weight behind a Feyenoord win, with a strong 77% probability. Likely scorelines of 0-2, 0-3, or even 0-1 align with Feyenoord's current attacking rhythm and Telstar's defensive vulnerabilities. Despite the rain forecast, which might typically suppress scoring, the model's numbers already account for these conditions. With an over 2.5 goals likelihood at 63%, the match leans towards surpassing this threshold.
Interestingly, there's value in backing under 2.5 goals at odds of 3.3 with LeoVegas, offering a notable 21% edge according to the model. While the statistics and form suggest goals, the market underestimates the impact of adverse conditions, presenting a sharp betting angle. While Feyenoord should dominate, don't discount a lower-scoring game sneaking in under the radar.
TelstarForm DLDLD
League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #13xP/match #15Points #15
Key players
- Tyrone OwusuCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
- Sem ValkCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
- Nokkvi ThorissonFxG 0.31 · xT -0.02
FeyenoordForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #2xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Givairo ReadRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.21
- Oussama TarghallineCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.31
- Anis Hadj MoussaRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.32
Final score
3 – 4
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Telstar 9% · Draw 13% · Feyenoord 77%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FeyenoordBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,14fair 4,31-27 %
HitMatchresultat - SC TelstarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 21,04fair 48,43-57 %
MissMatch prediction: Telstar – Feyenoord
Predicted score matrix
Feyenoord →
Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.0%
0–19.4%
0–212.0%
0–310.0%
0–4+11.4%
1
1–02.7%
1–17.5%
1–29.1%
1–37.6%
1–4+8.7%
2
2–01.1%
2–12.7%
2–23.4%
2–32.9%
2–4+3.3%
3
3–00.3%
3–10.7%
3–20.9%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.2%
4+–20.2%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-212%
- 2.0-310%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.1-38%
Expected goals
0,76–2,51
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@3.00EV+10%
Over 2,563%
@1.38
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Feyenoord to win77%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Sem Steijn to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Sem Steijn to score30%
- Sem Valk to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.537% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
- Under 2.537% probability@3.00LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
- Under 2.537% probability@3.00NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Telstar | X | 2 · Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 8.69 | 5.22 | EV+ 1% 1.31 |
| LeoVegas | 7.50 | 6.00 | EV+ 3% 1.33 |
| Nordicbet | 8.69 | 5.22 | EV+ 1% 1.31 |
| Pinnacle | 8.72 | 5.70 | EV+ 3% 1.33 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
1+8 %
14 %9 %
8.11 → 8.72
X+6 %
20 %15 %
5.39 → 5.70
20 %
74 %69 %
1.33 → 1.33
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesTelstar 0Draw 0Feyenoord 2
Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- Feyenoord come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Feyenoord have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Telstar
Feyenoord
Telstar (7–14)
Feyenoord (27–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Telstar
Feyenoord
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Telstar
Feyenoord
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Telstar | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 20 |
| xPoints | 9.2 | 16.5 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 0.84 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | Telstar | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.69 |
| xT per match | 0.86 | 1.8 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.78 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 21 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 314 | 439 |
| Passes against per match | 421 | 338 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.4 | 19.3 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Telstar | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.6 | 6.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| Other | Telstar | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Ronald Koeman Jr. (Telstar) | Tjark Ernst (Feyenoord) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 35 | 16 |
| Save % | 71% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 60% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Telstar vs Feyenoord according to our model?
The model gives Feyenoord a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Telstar 9%, draw 13%, Feyenoord 77%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Telstar vs Feyenoord?
The model expects 0.76 goals (xG) for Telstar and 2.51 for Feyenoord, 3.26 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Telstar or draw (1X) 23%, Feyenoord or draw (X2) 91% and no draw (12) 87%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.