01 · 2 legs
Safe
- NEC to win63%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
EredivisieGoffertstadion, Nijmegen10°3,2 mm19 km/h
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NECPossession & high press2–2
Fortuna SittardLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · NEC (63%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 8.00 (+63 %)
NEC vs Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie
1 · NEC 63%X 22%14% Fortuna Sittard · 2
63%
22%
14%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for NEC vs Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie, Sunday, 18 October 2026): NEC win 63%, draw 22%, Fortuna Sittard win 14%. Expected goals (xG): NEC 1.98, Fortuna Sittard 0.96. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: NEC or draw 86%, Fortuna Sittard or draw 37%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: NEC – Fortuna Sittard
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Fortuna Sittard's 14% win probability underscores their uphill battle against an NEC side possessing a 63% likelihood of victory. A small head-to-head sample since 2022 shows an even split, but NEC's superior expected goals, nearly double that of their opponents, suggests a tactical edge. The hosts' possession and high press will challenge the visitors' low defensive setup.
Despite Fortuna's higher points tally, expected points reveal both teams on similar footing. NEC's creation of 1.6 xG per match outshines Fortuna's modest 0.89, while defensively, Fortuna's 2.1 xGA indicates vulnerabilities. With a forecast of 4.4 mm of rain, matches often see goal suppression, though this is accounted for in the model's numbers. Still, a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline seems plausible.
There’s notable value in the under market. Both Betsafe and LeoVegas offer odds on under 2.5 goals that present a significant edge — 26% and 31% respectively. For the more risk-tolerant, LeoVegas's odds on under 1.5 goals at 6.25 are intriguing, given the model rates it at 20%. While the goals might be sparse, the value here certainly isn't.
NECForm LDLDD
League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #4xP/match #12Points #10
Key players
- Brayann PereiraRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.25
- Bryan Catharina Anna Petronella LinssenFxG 0.21 · xT 0.05
- Tjaronn CheryRWxG 0.62 · xT 0.16
Fortuna SittardForm WWLWD
League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #18xP/match #11Points #7
Key players
- Lequincio ZeefuikFxG 0.20 · xT 0.02
- Mohamed Amine IhattarenRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.18
- Anthony Kevin N. DescotteFxG 0.22 · xT 0.02
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: NEC 63% · Draw 22% · Fortuna Sittard 14%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - NECBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,95fair 5,51-28 %
MissMatchresultat - Fortuna SittardBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,23fair 23,22-60 %
MissMatch prediction: NEC – Fortuna Sittard
Predicted score matrix
Fortuna Sittard →
NEC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–14.8%
0–22.4%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.1%
1–110.3%
1–24.8%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.3%
2–110.0%
2–24.8%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.8%
3–16.6%
3–23.2%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.3%
4+–15.1%
4+–22.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-010%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,98–0,96
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+18%
Under 2,544%
@3.40EV+48%
Over 2,556%
@1.47
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- NEC to win63%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar to score28%
- Rodrigo Guth to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.520% probability@8.00Bet365EV+63%reference odds
- Under 2.544% probability@3.40Bet365EV+48%reference odds
- Under 3.566% probability@1.91Bet365EV+26%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · NEC | X | 2 · Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.42 | EV+ 7% 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 10% 1.74 | 4.00 | 4.08 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 11% 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 10% 1.74 | 4.00 | 4.08 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 12% 1.77 | 4.09 | 4.29 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Fortuna Sittard win since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 4.77 to 4.29 (−10%).
1+10 %
59 %54 %
1.61 → 1.77
X-5 %
25 %20 %
4.32 → 4.09
2-10 %
24 %19 %
4.77 → 4.29
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesNEC 2Draw 0Fortuna Sittard 2
Goals: 11–7 (⌀ 4,5)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
NEC
Fortuna Sittard
NEC (13–14)
Fortuna Sittard (14–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
NEC
Fortuna Sittard
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
NEC
Fortuna Sittard
The teams in numbers
| Performance | NEC | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 14 |
| xPoints | 9.8 | 9.9 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 0.89 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | NEC | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.71 | 0.21 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 0.53 |
| xTA per match | 0.95 | 1.8 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 16 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 23 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 393 | 259 |
| Passes against per match | 256 | 504 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.5 | 17.3 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 28 |
| Set pieces | NEC | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| Corners against per match | 3.8 | 7.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| Other | NEC | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz (NEC) | Mattijs Branderhorst (Fortuna Sittard) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 37 |
| Save % | 57% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 26% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins NEC vs Fortuna Sittard according to our model?
The model gives NEC a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NEC 63%, draw 22%, Fortuna Sittard 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?
The model expects 1.98 goals (xG) for NEC and 0.96 for Fortuna Sittard, 2.95 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
NEC or draw (1X) 86%, Fortuna Sittard or draw (X2) 37% and no draw (12) 78%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.