PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles: Prediction & Odds (18 Oct 2026)

Eredivisie18 October 2026MAC3PARK Stadion, Zwolle10°2,5 mm21 km/h

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PEC ZwolleLow block & direct

4–1

Go Ahead EaglesCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Go Ahead Eagles (48%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.68 (+4 %)

1 · PEC Zwolle 28%X 24%48% Go Ahead Eagles · 2

28%

24%

48%

Prediction summary

Final score 4–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles (Eredivisie, Sunday, 18 October 2026): PEC Zwolle win 28%, draw 24%, Go Ahead Eagles win 48%. Expected goals (xG): PEC Zwolle 1.19, Go Ahead Eagles 1.94. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: PEC Zwolle or draw 52%, Go Ahead Eagles or draw 72%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead Eagles

Anna Karlsson · 17 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The crucial question for PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles is whether Zwolle can halt their three-game losing streak against a side that has consistently outperformed them. With a model probability giving Go Ahead Eagles a 48% chance of victory, the numbers favor the visitors. They also boast a more potent attack, having scored in 11 consecutive league matches while Zwolle has struggled defensively.

The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample of six matches, leans heavily towards the visitors, with Go Ahead Eagles winning two and drawing four. This streak underscores their historical edge, but it's the current form and expected goals that truly stack the odds against Zwolle. With Zwolle generating only 0.94 xG per match compared to Go Ahead Eagles' 1.6, the hosts' offensive struggles are evident, compounded by their xGA of 2.1 per game—a glaring defensive vulnerability.

Go Ahead Eagles' style of counter-attacking and leveraging crosses aligns perfectly against Zwolle's low defensive setup. This tactical mismatch suggests that the visitors are well-positioned to exploit Zwolle's weaknesses. The model's most likely scorelines, pegging a 1-1 or 1-2 outcome, further underline the challenge facing Zwolle in this encounter.

While the over 2.5 goals is marked at 60%, there's intriguing value in the under 2.5 goals market. With LeoVegas offering odds of 2.65 and the model rating the likelihood at 40%, there's a tangible 5% edge. Similarly, Betsafe's odds of 2.63 present a 4% edge, making this a promising angle for those skeptical of a high-scoring affair.

In conclusion, Go Ahead Eagles appear primed to extend their dominance, with a 1-2 victory over Zwolle looking like the most probable outcome. However, the under 2.5 goals market offers the sharpest betting edge, challenging the assumption of a goal-filled match.

PEC Zwolle

Form LDLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #17xP/match #17Points #16

Key players

Simon GravesCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Ryan Jared ThomasCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Koen KostonsFxG 0.24 · xT 0.07

Go Ahead Eagles

Form LDDDD

League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #7xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Mathis SurayLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.23
Dean JamesLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
Victor Kaj EdvardsenCAMxG 0.28 · xT 0.17

Final score

4 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: PEC Zwolle 28% · Draw 24% · Go Ahead Eagles 48%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Go Ahead EaglesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,34fair 5,30-18 %

Miss

Matchresultat - PEC ZwolleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,90fair 14,22-44 %

Hit

Match prediction: PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead Eagles

Predicted score matrix

Go Ahead Eagles →

PEC Zwolle →

0–04.7%

0–18.2%

0–28.3%

0–35.3%

0–4+4.0%

1–04.9%

1–110.4%

1–29.8%

1–36.3%

1–4+4.8%

2–03.1%

2–16.0%

2–25.8%

2–33.8%

2–4+2.8%

3–01.2%

3–12.4%

3–22.3%

3–31.5%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-28%
4.0-18%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,19–1,94

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

@2.60EV+2%

Over 2,560%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Go Ahead Eagles to win48%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Go Ahead Eagles to win48%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Richonell Margaret to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Koen Kostons to score26%
Nick Fichtinger to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.562% probability@1.68LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
1 · PEC Zwolle28% probability@3.73PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
Under 4.579% probability@1.30LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · PEC Zwolle	X	2 · Go Ahead Eagles
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 3.64	3.81	1.88
LeoVegas	3.60	4.00	1.92
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 3.64	3.81	1.88
Pinnacle	EV+ 3% 3.73	4.01	1.91

Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:16

Odds movement

1+2 %

28 %23 %

3.66 → 3.73

X+9 %

27 %22 %

3.68 → 4.01

2-3 %

52 %47 %

1.96 → 1.91

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

PEC Zwolle 0Draw 4Go Ahead Eagles 2

Goals: 5–12 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

Go Ahead Eagles dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
PEC Zwolle have lost 3 in a row.
Go Ahead Eagles have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

PEC Zwolle

Go Ahead Eagles

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

PEC Zwolle (6–21)

Go Ahead Eagles (19–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

PEC Zwolle

Go Ahead Eagles

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

PEC Zwolle

Go Ahead Eagles

The teams in numbers

Performance	PEC Zwolle	Go Ahead Eagles
Points	4	11
xPoints	7.8	10.2
xG per match	0.94	1.6
xGA per match	2.1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.41	0.21

Playing style	PEC Zwolle	Go Ahead Eagles
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.31
Field tilt	0.32	0.54
xT per match	0.62	1.2
xTA per match	1.4	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	23	24
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.24
Entries into the box per match	9	15
Entries into the box against	18	13
Pass completion %	0.7	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.73
Passes per match	271	416
Passes against per match	442	344
Switches of play per match	18.3	33.8
Long balls per match	28	42

Set pieces	PEC Zwolle	Go Ahead Eagles
xG from free kicks	0	0.09
Corners per match	4.2	6.4
Corners against per match	7.3	4.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.68

Other	PEC Zwolle	Go Ahead Eagles
Throw-in control	0.71	0.78

The goalkeepers	Jasper Schendelaar (PEC Zwolle)	Christian Kjetil Haug (Go Ahead Eagles)
Saves	35	23
Save %	65%	57%
xG prevented	46%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

PEC Zwolle

Fixtures, form & tips

Go Ahead Eagles

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles according to our model?

The model gives Go Ahead Eagles a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PEC Zwolle 28%, draw 24%, Go Ahead Eagles 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model expects 1.19 goals (xG) for PEC Zwolle and 1.94 for Go Ahead Eagles, 3.13 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

PEC Zwolle or draw (1X) 52%, Go Ahead Eagles or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.