01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sparta Rotterdam to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
EredivisieHet Kasteel, Rotterdam13°2,7 mm20 km/h
Läs på svenska
Sparta RotterdamCounter-attacks & crosses3–2
Willem IILow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Sparta Rotterdam (50%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 23.00 (+27 %)
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II · Eredivisie
1 · Sparta Rotterdam 50%X 27%23% Willem II · 2
50%
27%
23%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II (Eredivisie, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Sparta Rotterdam win 50%, draw 27%, Willem II win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Sparta Rotterdam 1.77, Willem II 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Sparta Rotterdam or draw 77%, Willem II or draw 50%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Sparta Rotterdam's ability to exploit the wings and hit effectively on the counter has been key to their tactical approach. This has resulted in a solid start to the season, reflected by their higher expected points and edge in xG compared to Willem II. The hosts' style complements their strengths, especially against a Willem II side that prefers a low block and direct play but has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.3 xGA per match.
The visitors come into this match on the back of three consecutive defeats, a streak that underscores their vulnerabilities and shaky form. While Sparta's record against them is a small sample, with just two wins since 2022, it highlights a psychological edge that could be decisive. The visitors' recent form does not inspire confidence, which the model's probabilities support, favoring Sparta Rotterdam with a 50% chance of taking all three points.
Given the expected goals metrics, there's a clear indication that goals are on the cards, with an over 2.5 goals probability at 57%. Despite the slight rainfall predicted, which might usually temper goal-scoring, the model has already accounted for these conditions, maintaining the likelihood of a lively encounter in terms of goals. Both teams finding the back of the net seems plausible at 58%.
Nevertheless, the most intriguing angles come from the betting value. While the model suggests a 27% chance of the match ending in a draw, LeoVegas offers odds of 4.4 for a stalemate, presenting a compelling 18% edge. For those seeking greater risk and potential reward, the under 0.5 goals bet at odds of 23.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet presents a whopping 27% edge, though the model only rates it at a scant 6% likelihood. These facets add layers to what might otherwise seem a straightforward matchup on paper.
Sparta RotterdamForm LDLLD
League ranking xG #9xGA #16xT #8xP/match #13Points #14
Key players
- Milan ZonneveldFxG 0.55 · xT 0.00
- Marvin YoungCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
- Cedric HatenboerCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.19
Willem IIForm LDLLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #12xP/match #16Points #18
Key players
- Calvin TwigtCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
- Devin HaenFxG 0.30 · xT 0.03
- Nathan Noël Romejo Tjoe-A-OnLBxG 0.10 · xT 0.27
Final score
3 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 50% · Draw 27% · Willem II 23%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Willem IIBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,40fair 13,87-3 %
MissMatchresultat - SpartaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,79fair 6,25-39 %
HitMatch prediction: Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II
Predicted score matrix
Willem II →
Sparta Rotterdam →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–15.8%
0–23.7%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–08.9%
1–111.2%
1–26.5%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.1%
2–19.7%
2–25.7%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.8%
3–15.7%
3–23.4%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–03.2%
4+–13.8%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,77–1,19
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.60EV+12%
Over 2,557%
@1.48
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sparta Rotterdam to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Milan Zonneveld to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Milan Zonneveld to score29%
- Anass Zarrouk to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.56% probability@23.00BetsafeEV+27%reference odds
- Under 0.56% probability@23.00NordicbetEV+27%reference odds
- X · Draw27% probability@4.62PinnacleEV+24%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sparta Rotterdam | X | 2 · Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.54 | EV+ 15% 4.28 | EV+ 23% 5.33 |
| LeoVegas | 1.58 | EV+ 21% 4.50 | EV+ 15% 5.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.54 | EV+ 15% 4.28 | EV+ 23% 5.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | EV+ 24% 4.62 | EV+ 17% 5.09 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
1-2 %
62 %57 %
1.62 → 1.59
X+5 %
24 %19 %
4.41 → 4.62
2+10 %
22 %17 %
4.62 → 5.09
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSparta Rotterdam 2Draw 0Willem II 0
Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- Willem II have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
Sparta Rotterdam (13–20)
Willem II (7–23)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 2 |
| xPoints | 9.3 | 8.6 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.92 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 23 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 320 | 292 |
| Passes against per match | 422 | 498 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.9 | 22.5 |
| Long balls per match | 40 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 7.3 | 7 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| Other | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Michael Brouwer (Sparta Rotterdam) | Maxime René Delanghe (Willem II) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 19 |
| Save % | 63% | 59% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II according to our model?
The model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Rotterdam 50%, draw 27%, Willem II 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
The model expects 1.77 goals (xG) for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.19 for Willem II, 2.96 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sparta Rotterdam or draw (1X) 77%, Willem II or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.