01 · 2 legs
Safe
- AZ Alkmaar to win75%
- Over 1.5 goals89%
EredivisieCambuur Stadion, Leeuwarden11°4,4 mm24 km/h
Läs på svenska
CambuurPossession control2–2
AZ AlkmaarPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · AZ Alkmaar (75%)
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie
1 · Cambuur 10%X 15%75% AZ Alkmaar · 2
15%
75%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Cambuur win 10%, draw 15%, AZ Alkmaar win 75%. Expected goals (xG): Cambuur 0.95, AZ Alkmaar 2.82. Most likely score: 0-2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Cambuur or draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar or draw 90%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: A stark contrast in current form and quality defines the matchup between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar. While the sample size for head-to-head matches is insufficient for strong conclusions, recent performances and expected goals paint a clear picture favoring the visitors. AZ's recent dominance is underscored by their 75% win probability according to the model, suggesting a clear edge over the hosts.
AZ Alkmaar's high pressing game promises to be particularly effective against Cambuur, a team that emphasizes possession control but often struggles to convert it into tangible results. With Cambuur's expected goals against sitting at a concerning 1.9 per match, the visitors' potent attack, which averages 2.4 xG per match, should find ample opportunities to breach the home defense. Even with Cambuur's possession-based approach, their defensive frailties are likely to be exploited by AZ's relentless pressing and superior quality.
Weather conditions include mild temperatures around 10.2°C with light rain of about 2.9 mm, already factored into the model's calculations. The predicted scorelines of 0-2, 1-2, and 0-3 each at 9% probability reflect the likelihood of an AZ win. Moreover, with a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals, the match leans towards a higher-scoring affair, even if Cambuur manages to put up a fight.
For the sharper betting angle, look towards the value in backing the away side. With odds available at 1.48 on LeoVegas and slightly lower on other platforms like Betsafe and Nordicbet, there's a significant edge based on the model's 75% win probability for AZ Alkmaar. This EV+ opportunity might not be a thrilling long shot, but it's the kind of well-measured play that keeps the lights on.
CambuurForm LDWDW
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #10xP/match #14Points #12
Key players
- Jamal AmofaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
- Ismaël BaoufCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
- Ilyès HamacheLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.16
AZ AlkmaarForm WWDWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #5xP/match #3Points #3
Key players
- Peer KoopmeinersCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.20
- Wouter GoesCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
- Mexx MeerdinkFxG 0.77 · xT -0.02
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Cambuur 10% · Draw 15% · AZ Alkmaar 75%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - AZ AlkmaarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,30fair 3,26+1 %
MissMatchresultat - CambuurBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,36fair 31,06-54 %
MissMatch prediction: Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar
Predicted score matrix
AZ Alkmaar →
Cambuur →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.5%
0–16.3%
0–29.2%
0–38.6%
0–4+12.1%
1
1–02.0%
1–16.4%
1–28.7%
1–38.2%
1–4+11.5%
2
2–01.0%
2–12.9%
2–24.1%
2–33.9%
2–4+5.4%
3
3–00.3%
3–10.9%
3–21.3%
3–31.2%
3–4+1.7%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.3%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-29%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-39%
- 4.1-38%
- 5.1-16%
Expected goals
0,95–2,82
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,80
18%
217%
321%
419%
5+33%
Under 2,527%
@2.90
Over 2,573%
@1.40EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- AZ Alkmaar to win75%
- Over 2.5 goals73%
- Mexx Meerdink to score42%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals73%
- Mexx Meerdink to score42%
- Billy van Duijl to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · AZ Alkmaar75% probability@1.48PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- 2 · AZ Alkmaar75% probability@1.47LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
- Over 3.552% probability@2.08PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cambuur | X | 2 · AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 6.31 | 4.76 | EV+ 7% 1.43 |
| LeoVegas | 6.00 | 5.00 | EV+ 10% 1.47 |
| Nordicbet | 6.31 | 4.76 | EV+ 7% 1.43 |
| Pinnacle | 6.05 | 4.97 | EV+ 11% 1.48 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+3 %
19 %14 %
5.88 → 6.05
X-2 %
22 %17 %
5.05 → 4.97
2+2 %
67 %62 %
1.44 → 1.48
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cambuur
AZ Alkmaar
Cambuur (11–19)
AZ Alkmaar (18–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cambuur
AZ Alkmaar
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cambuur
AZ Alkmaar
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 19 |
| xPoints | 9.2 | 15.3 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 0.97 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.46 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.79 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.74 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 21 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 307 | 471 |
| Passes against per match | 343 | 300 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.6 | 23.4 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 8.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.57 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| Other | Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Thijs Jansen (Cambuur) | Jari De Busser (AZ Alkmaar) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 13 |
| Save % | 63% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar according to our model?
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 75% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cambuur 10%, draw 15%, AZ Alkmaar 75%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model expects 0.95 goals (xG) for Cambuur and 2.82 for AZ Alkmaar, 3.77 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Cambuur or draw (1X) 25%, AZ Alkmaar or draw (X2) 90% and no draw (12) 85%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.