Groningen vs Ajax: Prediction & Odds (18 Oct 2026)

Eredivisie18 October 2026Euroborg, Groningen11°6,6 mm25 km/h

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GroningenBalanced & physical

2–5

AjaxPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Ajax (63%)

1 · Groningen 18%X 19%63% Ajax · 2

18%

19%

63%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–5. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Groningen vs Ajax (Eredivisie, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Groningen win 18%, draw 19%, Ajax win 63%. Expected goals (xG): Groningen 1.20, Ajax 2.42. Most likely score: 1-2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Groningen or draw 37%, Ajax or draw 82%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Groningen – Ajax

Sofia Andersson · 17 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Ajax's scoring prowess is set to take center stage in their clash against Groningen, with the visitors having netted in ten consecutive league matches. The expected goals data supports this offensive strength, with Ajax averaging 2.6 xG per match compared to Groningen's 1.5. Despite the physicality and balance that Groningen brings to the pitch, they face a formidable opponent skilled in possession and a high press.

The model leans heavily towards Ajax, assigning them a 63% probability of victory. Groningen's chances stand at a modest 18%, with the draw slightly higher at 19%. The most probable scorelines, such as 1-2 and 0-2, both highlight the likelihood of an Ajax win. This expectation is further emphasized by their historical success in this fixture, taking three wins from five meetings. However, note the small sample size of these games, which somewhat tempers the weight of this head-to-head record.

With an over 2.5 goals probability at 70% and both teams having scored in their last eight and ten matches respectively, goals seem inevitable. Nevertheless, the expected rain could dampen the goal count slightly, although the model accounts for such weather conditions. Importantly, the away side has a clear edge in xPoints (14.6 vs 10.3) and xGA per match (1.1 vs 1.7), underscoring their superiority on both ends of the field.

The most compelling angle lies in the betting market. Ajax's victory at odds of 1.952 with LeoVegas represents a 23% edge over the model's implied probability. Similarly, odds of 1.88 with Betsafe and Nordicbet offer an 18% edge. While never a guarantee, this discrepancy signals potential value for those backing the visitors to continue their scoring and winning streaks.

Groningen

Form LDDWW

League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #9xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

David van der WerffRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.20
Brynjolfur WillumssonFxG 0.33 · xT -0.01
Jorg SchreudersRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Ajax

Form LWWDD

League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #1xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Steven BerghuisRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.35
Anton GaaeiRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.25
Sofyan AmrabatCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.22

Final score

2 – 5

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Groningen 18% · Draw 19% · Ajax 63%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - AjaxBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,71fair 3,68+1 %

Hit

Matchresultat - FC GroningenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,96fair 15,55-55 %

Miss

Match prediction: Groningen – Ajax

Predicted score matrix

Ajax →

Groningen →

0–02.9%

0–16.3%

0–27.8%

0–36.3%

0–4+6.8%

1–03.0%

1–18.0%

1–29.4%

1–37.6%

1–4+8.2%

2–01.9%

2–14.7%

2–25.6%

2–34.6%

2–4+4.9%

3–00.8%

3–11.9%

3–22.3%

3–31.8%

3–4+2.0%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-29%
2.1-18%
3.0-28%
4.1-38%
5.0-36%

Expected goals

1,20–2,42

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,6

19%

218%

321%

419%

5+30%

Under 2,530%

@3.09

Over 2,570%

@1.38

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ajax to win63%
Over 1.5 goals88%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ajax to win63%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare to score36%
Jorthy Mokio to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ajax63% probability@1.88LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds
2 · Ajax63% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
2 · Ajax63% probability@1.83BetsafeEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Groningen	X	2 · Ajax
Betsafe	3.65	4.00	EV+ 15% 1.83
LeoVegas	3.65	4.10	EV+ 18% 1.88
Nordicbet	3.65	4.00	EV+ 15% 1.83
Pinnacle	3.78	4.27	EV+ 16% 1.85

Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+11 %

29 %24 %

3.42 → 3.78

X0 %

25 %20 %

4.29 → 4.27

2-2 %

54 %49 %

1.88 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Groningen 1Draw 1Ajax 3

Goals: 6–10 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

AFC Ajax dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
Groningen have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
AFC Ajax have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Groningen

Ajax

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Groningen (20–14)

Ajax (22–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Groningen

Ajax

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Groningen

Ajax

The teams in numbers

Performance	Groningen	Ajax
Points	14	15
xPoints	10.3	14.6
xG per match	1.5	2.6
xGA per match	1.7	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.17

Playing style	Groningen	Ajax
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.49	0.8
xT per match	1.1	1.9
xTA per match	1.2	0.67
Won balls, offensive half	22	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.27
Entries into the box per match	12	22
Entries into the box against	17	8
Pass completion %	0.76	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.77
Passes per match	359	541
Passes against per match	374	275
Switches of play per match	22.3	30
Long balls per match	38	34

Set pieces	Groningen	Ajax
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.01
Corners per match	4.6	7.5
Corners against per match	4.6	2.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.58
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.68

Other	Groningen	Ajax
Throw-in control	0.78	0.75

The goalkeepers	Etienne Vaessen (Groningen)	Marc-André ter Stegen (Ajax)
Saves	28	19
Save %	68%	68%
xG prevented	39%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Groningen

Fixtures, form & tips

Ajax

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Groningen vs Ajax according to our model?

The model gives Ajax a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Groningen 18%, draw 19%, Ajax 63%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 70% and under at 30%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Groningen vs Ajax?

The model expects 1.20 goals (xG) for Groningen and 2.42 for Ajax, 3.62 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Groningen or draw (1X) 37%, Ajax or draw (X2) 82% and no draw (12) 81%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.