01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Accrington Stanley to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
EFL League TwoWham Stadium, Accrington7°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
Accrington StanleyLow block & direct3–1
GillinghamLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Accrington Stanley (48%)
Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham · EFL League Two
1 · Accrington Stanley 48%X 28%24% Gillingham · 2
48%
28%
24%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham (EFL League Two, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Accrington Stanley win 48%, draw 28%, Gillingham win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Accrington Stanley 1.43, Gillingham 1.01. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Accrington Stanley or draw 76%, Gillingham or draw 52%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Accrington Stanley – Gillingham
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The expected goals tell a compelling story: Accrington Stanley edges out Gillingham with 1.43 versus 1.01, suggesting the hosts hold a slight upper hand in this clash. Despite trailing in points, Accrington's xPoints advantage at 15.6 against the visitors' 14.1 highlights a potential underperformance on their part, indicating room for positive regression.
The low defensive profiles and direct styles of both squads may result in a cagey affair, as evidenced by a modest 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% likelihood of both teams finding the net. The most likely scorelines further reinforce the narrative of a tight contest, with 1-1 and 1-0 leading the probabilities. A small sample from their head-to-head encounters shows parity, with each side claiming a win and two draws. Thus, form and expected goals take precedence over past meetings.
The home side's slight favoritism is backed by the model's 48% win probability, offering value with bookmakers. LeoVegas provides the best edge, offering odds of 2.35, translating to a 12% advantage over the model's estimation. For those inclined to back Accrington, this bet stands as the sharpest play, focusing on stability over speculative high-risk wagers.
Accrington StanleyForm LDDWD
League ranking xG #7xGA #16xT #8xP/match #6Points #15
Key players
- Donald LoveCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
- Charlie CatonFxG 0.56 · xT 0.03
- Shaun WhalleyCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
GillinghamForm WWLDW
League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #18xP/match #9Points #4
Key players
- Omar Jerome BecklesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
- Ronan Aiden Connolly Shea Chapman HaleLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.00
- James Robert BrophyLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
Final score
3 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Accrington Stanley 48% · Draw 28% · Gillingham 24%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - AccringtonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,95fair 10,10-21 %
HitMatchresultat - GillinghamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,15fair 19,89-44 %
MissMatch prediction: Accrington Stanley – Gillingham
Predicted score matrix
Gillingham →
Accrington Stanley →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.1%
0–18.5%
0–24.5%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–012.1%
1–113.0%
1–26.4%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.0%
2–24.5%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–04.2%
3–14.3%
3–22.2%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.1%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-09%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.2-09%
Expected goals
1,43–1,01
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.83EV+2%
Over 2,544%
@2.02
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Accrington Stanley to win48%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Josh Stanley Ronald Woods to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Josh Stanley Ronald Woods to score23%
- Armani George Little to be booked17%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Accrington Stanley48% probability@2.30LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
- 1 · Accrington Stanley48% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- 1 · Accrington Stanley48% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Accrington Stanley | X | 2 · Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 10% 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 8% 2.26 | EV+ 2% 3.62 | 3.04 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:16
Odds movement
1-3 %
44 %39 %
2.32 → 2.26
X+3 %
29 %24 %
3.53 → 3.62
2+6 %
35 %30 %
2.86 → 3.04
Over 2,5+1 %
50 %45 %
2.00 → 2.02
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAccrington Stanley 1Draw 2Gillingham 1
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Accrington Stanley
Gillingham
Accrington Stanley (13–14)
Gillingham (15–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Accrington Stanley
Gillingham
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Accrington Stanley
Gillingham
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Accrington Stanley | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 16 |
| xPoints | 15.6 | 14.1 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Accrington Stanley | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.99 | 0.71 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 0.92 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.6 | 0.64 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Passes per match | 218 | 250 |
| Passes against per match | 266 | 321 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.9 | 17.6 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Accrington Stanley | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 3.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| Other | Accrington Stanley | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Louie Moulden (Accrington Stanley) | Oliver Lennon George Wright (Gillingham) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 29 | 27 |
| Save % | 71% | 87% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 87% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Shrewsbury Town – Bristol Rovers17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Fleetwood Town – Rotherham United17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Crewe Alexandra – Rochdale17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Port Vale – Chesterfield17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Colchester United – Exeter City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Salford City – Crawley Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Newport County – York City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Grimsby Town – Northampton Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Oldham Athletic – Cheltenham Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham according to our model?
The model gives Accrington Stanley a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Accrington Stanley 48%, draw 28%, Gillingham 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham?
The model expects 1.43 goals (xG) for Accrington Stanley and 1.01 for Gillingham, 2.43 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Accrington Stanley or draw (1X) 76%, Gillingham or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.