01 · 2 legs
Safe
- York City to win49%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
EFL League TwoRodney Parade, Newport10°17 km/h
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Newport CountyLow block & direct1–1
York CityPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · York City (49%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.16 (+8 %)
Newport County vs York City · EFL League Two
1 · Newport County 24%X 27%49% York City · 2
24%
27%
49%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Newport County vs York City (EFL League Two, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Newport County win 24%, draw 27%, York City win 49%. Expected goals (xG): Newport County 1.13, York City 1.54. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Newport County or draw 51%, York City or draw 76%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Newport County – York City
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: York City comes into this fixture with a significant edge in probabilities, winning 49% of the simulations according to the model. Newport County's unbeaten streak of five league matches speaks to their resilience, but the visitors' possession-control style could challenge the hosts' more direct approach. The most probable outcomes suggest a competitive match, with a 1-1 draw or a narrow 0-1 victory for York City leading the expectations.
Despite Newport's marginal advantage in expected points (xPoints), York's higher expected goals per match (1.8 to Newport's 1.1) indicates a more potent attack. This dynamic underscores the 53% chance for both teams to score. The expected goals also suggest an even split between over and under 2.5 goals, with the model assigning a 50% probability to each outcome.
For bettors looking for value, the under 2.5 goals market presents a 6% edge at odds of 2.12 with Betsafe. While a 0-0 scoreline seems unlikely, the odds of 15.0 for under 0.5 goals with Betsafe and Nordicbet offer a long-shot gamble with a 9% edge, reflecting the cautious nature of both teams' defenses.
Newport CountyForm DDWDW
League ranking xG #18xGA #3xT #15xP/match #4Points #12
Key players
- Matthew James JacobLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.18
- Harrison BigginsCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
- Christian Rhys DoidgeFxG 0.31 · xT 0.07
York CityForm DWLWD
League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #1xP/match #12Points #5
Key players
- Alexander John HuntCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.13
- Alexander Lewis NewbyFxG 0.44 · xT 0.11
- Mark Stephen KitchingCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.15
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Newport County 24% · Draw 27% · York City 49%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - YorkBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,88fair 8,30-29 %
MissMatchresultat - Newport CountyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,11fair 15,37-34 %
MissMatch prediction: Newport County – York City
Predicted score matrix
York City →
Newport County →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.3%
0–110.3%
0–28.2%
0–34.2%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–07.5%
1–112.4%
1–29.3%
1–34.8%
1–4+2.6%
2
2–04.4%
2–16.8%
2–25.2%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–01.7%
3–12.6%
3–22.0%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,13–1,54
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@2.16EV+4%
Over 2,550%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- York City to win49%
- Under 2.5 goals50%
- Olliver Robert Pearce to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Olliver Robert Pearce to score30%
- Ciaran Thomas Brennan to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.550% probability@2.16PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- Under 2.550% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- Under 2.550% probability@2.08LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Newport County | X | 2 · York City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.45 | 3.45 | 1.98 |
| LeoVegas | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.02 |
| Nordicbet | 3.45 | 3.45 | 1.98 |
| Pinnacle | 3.62 | EV+ 2% 3.82 | 1.95 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
10 %
29 %24 %
3.61 → 3.62
X0 %
27 %22 %
3.81 → 3.82
2+3 %
52 %47 %
1.89 → 1.95
Over 2,5+1 %
58 %53 %
1.68 → 1.71
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Newport County are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Newport County
York City
Newport County (13–12)
York City (17–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Newport County
York City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Newport County
York City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Newport County | York City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 15 |
| xPoints | 16.4 | 12.1 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Newport County | York City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.64 |
| xT per match | 0.76 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 0.69 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.52 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.52 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 149 | 477 |
| Passes against per match | 330 | 225 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.3 | 25.7 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Newport County | York City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 6.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 4.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| Other | Newport County | York City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| The goalkeepers | Jordan Wright (Newport County) | Alfie Shane McNally (York City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 21 |
| Save % | 74% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Shrewsbury Town – Bristol Rovers17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Fleetwood Town – Rotherham United17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Accrington Stanley – Gillingham17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crewe Alexandra – Rochdale17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Port Vale – Chesterfield17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Colchester United – Exeter City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Salford City – Crawley Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Grimsby Town – Northampton Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Oldham Athletic – Cheltenham Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Newport County vs York City according to our model?
The model gives York City a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Newport County 24%, draw 27%, York City 49%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Newport County vs York City?
The model expects 1.13 goals (xG) for Newport County and 1.54 for York City, 2.67 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Newport County or draw (1X) 51%, York City or draw (X2) 76% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.