Port Vale vs Chesterfield: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

EFL League Two17 October 2026 16:00 CESTVale Park, Stoke-on-Trent8°14 km/h

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Port ValePossession control

1–0

ChesterfieldPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Chesterfield (42%)

1 · Port Vale 29%X 29%42% Chesterfield · 2

29%

42%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Port Vale vs Chesterfield (EFL League Two, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Port Vale win 29%, draw 29%, Chesterfield win 42%. Expected goals (xG): Port Vale 1.14, Chesterfield 1.33. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Port Vale or draw 58%, Chesterfield or draw 71%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Port Vale – Chesterfield

Marcus Johansson · 16 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Chesterfield's scoring run enters its tenth match against a Port Vale side that hasn't lost to them since 2023. Such dynamics set an intriguing stage at Vale Park, especially with both sides favoring possession control. Yet, Chesterfield's superior form and metrics make them the likelier victors, as indicated by their steady accumulation of 15 points compared to Vale's 8.

The statistical models depict a Chesterfield advantage with a 42% win probability, compared to Port Vale's 29%. Furthermore, Chesterfield's expected goals (xG) tally of 1.9 per match underscores their attacking potency, slightly bettering Vale's 1.2. While Vale can boast a marginally stronger defense with an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.0, Chesterfield's consistent scoring streak hints at their ability to breach this resilience.

Despite Port Vale's unbeaten head-to-head record against Chesterfield in their limited two-game sample size, the visitors seem poised to capitalize on their momentum. The most probable scorelines—1-1 and 0-1—suggest a closely contested affair with a slight edge favoring Chesterfield. The expected goals numbers, however, keep a narrow margin, with Chesterfield at 1.33 compared to Vale's 1.14, reflecting a tight but decisive advantage.

With the over 2.5 goals probability at just 45% and both teams to score at 51%, the game signals a low-scoring nature. This aligns with an enticing betting angle: the under 1.5 goals market presents value, priced at 3.7 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering a 7% edge according to the model. Meanwhile, the under 2.5 goals at 1.92 with Betsafe offers a 6% edge, suggesting a conservative approach might yield dividends in a match where Chesterfield's form seems ready to tip the balance, potentially breaking the recent deadlock in head-to-head encounters.

Port Vale

Form LLWLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #2xT #11xP/match #13Points #22

Key players

Cameron HumphreysCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Connor HallCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
Jordan Lawrence GabrielRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12

Chesterfield

Form WWLWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #3xP/match #2Points #7

Key players

Dilan MarkandayRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.13
Kyle McfadzeanCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
Lewis GordonLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09

Final score

1 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Port Vale 29% · Draw 29% · Chesterfield 42%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ChesterfieldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,39fair 11,14-16 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Port ValeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 10,59fair 14,99-29 %

Miss

Match prediction: Port Vale – Chesterfield

Predicted score matrix

Chesterfield →

Port Vale →

0–08.8%

0–110.8%

0–27.5%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.2%

1–113.2%

1–28.5%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.5%

2–17.3%

2–24.9%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.1%

3–12.8%

3–21.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,14–1,33

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.75

Over 2,545%

@2.10

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Chesterfield or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Chesterfield or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score32%
Ryan William Stirk to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Chesterfield42% probability@2.47PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
2 · Chesterfield42% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
2 · Chesterfield42% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Port Vale	X	2 · Chesterfield
Betsafe	2.75	3.20	EV+ 3% 2.45
LeoVegas	2.85	3.20	EV+ 1% 2.40
Nordicbet	2.75	3.20	EV+ 3% 2.45
Pinnacle	2.94	3.31	EV+ 4% 2.47

Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 1.95 to 1.75 (−10%).

1+6 %

38 %28 %

2.78 → 2.94

X-3 %

33 %23 %

3.41 → 3.31

2+1 %

45 %35 %

2.44 → 2.47

Over 2,5+15 %

53 %43 %

1.83 → 2.10

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Port Vale 1Draw 1Chesterfield 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Chesterfield have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Port Vale

Chesterfield

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Port Vale (4–9)

Chesterfield (17–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Chesterfield

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Port Vale

Chesterfield

The teams in numbers

Performance	Port Vale	Chesterfield
Points	8	15
xPoints	10.7	16.8
xG per match	1.2	1.9
xGA per match	1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.43
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.39	0.26

Playing style	Port Vale	Chesterfield
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.52	0.69
xT per match	0.91	1.2
xTA per match	0.47	0.8
Won balls, offensive half	29	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.37	0.36
Entries into the box per match	11	17
Entries into the box against	9	9
Pass completion %	0.63	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.61	0.71
Passes per match	249	392
Passes against per match	250	255
Switches of play per match	19	36.9
Long balls per match	29	45

Set pieces	Port Vale	Chesterfield
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.02
Corners per match	5.2	5.8
Corners against per match	4.5	2.6
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.52

Other	Port Vale	Chesterfield
Throw-in control	0.75	0.82

The goalkeepers	Jackson William Smith (Port Vale)	Ryan Thomas William Boot (Chesterfield)
Saves	10	24
Save %	59%	63%
xG prevented	36%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Port Vale

Fixtures, form & tips

Chesterfield

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Port Vale vs Chesterfield according to our model?

The model gives Chesterfield a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Port Vale 29%, draw 29%, Chesterfield 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Port Vale vs Chesterfield?

The model expects 1.14 goals (xG) for Port Vale and 1.33 for Chesterfield, 2.48 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Port Vale or draw (1X) 58%, Chesterfield or draw (X2) 71% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.