01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Oldham Athletic to win57%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
EFL League TwoBoundary Park, Oldham8°15 km/h
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Oldham AthleticLow block & direct4–1
Cheltenham TownLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Oldham Athletic (57%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.03 (+8 %)
Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town · EFL League Two
1 · Oldham Athletic 57%X 26%17% Cheltenham Town · 2
57%
26%
17%
Prediction summary
Final score 4–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town (EFL League Two, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Oldham Athletic win 57%, draw 26%, Cheltenham Town win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Oldham Athletic 1.71, Cheltenham Town 0.84. Most likely score: 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: Oldham Athletic or draw 83%, Cheltenham Town or draw 43%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Oldham Athletic – Cheltenham Town
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Oldham Athletic holds a perfect head-to-head record against Cheltenham Town since 2023, having won both of their encounters. However, with only two games in this sample, the form and expected goals data paints a more complex picture. Despite Cheltenham holding more points in the league, Oldham's expected points nearly match theirs, highlighting a potential underperformance from the hosts in the standings.
The model gives Oldham a significant 57% chance of victory and a most likely scoreline of 1-0, suggesting a tight and potentially low-scoring match. Both teams exhibit similar playing styles, focusing on low defense and direct play, which often leads to scrappy encounters rather than high-scoring affairs. Oldham's expected goals per match surpass those of Cheltenham, and they also figure more favorably in expected goals allowed. This defensive edge could be pivotal in stifling the visitors' attack.
With an over 2.5 goals probability of just 47%, the model leans towards a more restrained affair. Both teams to score also stands at 47%, reinforcing the notion of a potentially limited goal output. Given that Oldham's defense can suppress Cheltenham's weaker attack, a narrow victory for the hosts seems on the cards, with a 1-0 scoreline being the most probable outcome.
The sharpest betting angle lies in the unders market. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer under 1.5 goals at enticing odds of 3.95, where the model sees an 8% value edge. Additionally, the under 2.5 goals market at odds of 2.02 with Betsafe offers a 7% edge based on the model's 53% probability. For those seeking value, these options present a calculated venture into a game expected to remain tight and controlled.
Oldham AthleticForm LLLLD
League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #16xP/match #11Points #21
Key players
- Oliver Lewis NorburnCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
- Karl Mike Fondop-TalumFxG 0.25 · xT 0.11
- Calum KavanaghCAMxG 0.61 · xT 0.03
Cheltenham TownForm WDWLL
League ranking xG #22xGA #18xT #24xP/match #18Points #8
Key players
- Charlie Liam McCannCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.09
- Robbie David CundyCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
- Ben Edward StevensonCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Final score
4 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Oldham Athletic 57% · Draw 26% · Cheltenham Town 17%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - OldhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,42fair 7,67-29 %
HitMatchresultat - CheltenhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 15,38fair 30,62-50 %
MissMatch prediction: Oldham Athletic – Cheltenham Town
Predicted score matrix
Cheltenham Town →
Oldham Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.1%
0–16.3%
0–22.8%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–013.0%
1–111.6%
1–24.7%
1–31.3%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–011.4%
2–19.6%
2–24.1%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–06.5%
3–15.5%
3–22.3%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–04.1%
4+–13.4%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,71–0,84
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@2.03EV+5%
Over 2,547%
@1.82
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Oldham Athletic to win57%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Noah Christopher Chilvers to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Noah Christopher Chilvers to score39%
- Robbie David Cundy to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.553% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- Under 0.58% probability@13.00BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- Under 0.58% probability@13.00NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Oldham Athletic | X | 2 · Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Nordicbet | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | EV+ 2% 3.94 | 4.51 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+5 %
58 %53 %
1.66 → 1.74
X-2 %
26 %21 %
4.02 → 3.94
2+3 %
23 %18 %
4.37 → 4.51
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesOldham Athletic 2Draw 0Cheltenham Town 0
Goals: 5–1 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Oldham Athletic
Cheltenham Town
Oldham Athletic (9–13)
Cheltenham Town (16–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Oldham Athletic
Cheltenham Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Oldham Athletic
Cheltenham Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Oldham Athletic | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 15 |
| xPoints | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.94 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.1 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Oldham Athletic | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| xT per match | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| xTA per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 6 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 250 | 271 |
| Passes against per match | 315 | 348 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.5 | 17.2 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Oldham Athletic | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| Other | Oldham Athletic | Cheltenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Mathew Anthony Hudson (Oldham Athletic) | Wylliam Sam Stanway (Cheltenham Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 30 |
| Save % | 60% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Shrewsbury Town – Bristol Rovers17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Fleetwood Town – Rotherham United17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Accrington Stanley – Gillingham17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crewe Alexandra – Rochdale17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Port Vale – Chesterfield17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Colchester United – Exeter City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Salford City – Crawley Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Newport County – York City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Grimsby Town – Northampton Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town according to our model?
The model gives Oldham Athletic a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oldham Athletic 57%, draw 26%, Cheltenham Town 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Oldham Athletic vs Cheltenham Town?
The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Oldham Athletic and 0.84 for Cheltenham Town, 2.55 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Oldham Athletic or draw (1X) 83%, Cheltenham Town or draw (X2) 43% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.