01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Salford City to win63%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
EFL League TwoPeninsula Stadium, Salford9°14 km/h
Läs på svenska
Salford CityPossession control2–1
Crawley TownPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Salford City (63%)Best value by the model: 2 · Crawley Town @ 7.84 (+28 %)
Salford City vs Crawley Town · EFL League Two
1 · Salford City 63%X 21%16% Crawley Town · 2
63%
21%
16%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Salford City vs Crawley Town (EFL League Two, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Salford City win 63%, draw 21%, Crawley Town win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Salford City 2.07, Crawley Town 1.02. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Salford City or draw 84%, Crawley Town or draw 37%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Salford City – Crawley Town
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Salford City is riding a wave of momentum, entering this match with four consecutive victories. This streak is a testament to their form, bringing them face to face with a Crawley Town side struggling with just five points to their name. The hosts play a possession-based game, likely dominating the ball against a Crawley team that mirrors this style but has faltered defensively, conceding an average of two goals per match. The expectation is that Salford will utilize their current form and possession control to break down Crawley's leaky defense.
The numbers tilt heavily in Salford's favor. With a 63% win probability according to the model, the likelihood of the hosts extending their winning run is pronounced. Crawley, with a 16% chance of victory, seems to face a daunting task. Despite this, the small head-to-head sample since 2023, which has seen Salford unbeaten, holds less weight than the current season form and the expected goals tally. Salford's xG of 2.07 against Crawley's 1.02 suggests that they should create more and better chances, aligning with the most likely scorelines of 2-0 or 2-1.
Interestingly, both sides favor a possession-centric approach, making for a potentially tactical affair. Yet, Salford's advantage in expected goals against per match (1.1 versus Crawley's 2.0) implies that they should be able to keep Crawley at bay while capitalizing on their own chances. The model's estimation of a 60% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score indicates that goals are likely, albeit primarily in Salford's favor.
From a betting perspective, while Salford appears the strong favorite, the value may lie elsewhere. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 7.3 for a Crawley upset, which the model assesses as having a 19% edge. Similarly, LeoVegas throws a tempting 10% edge behind the draw at odds of 5.2. For those looking for a calculated risk, these could be worth a closer look as the game unfolds.
Salford CityForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #15xGA #4xT #13xP/match #16Points #1
Key players
- Adebola OluwoCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
- Joe James PowellCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.14
- William Stewart AimsonCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Crawley TownForm DLLLD
League ranking xG #8xGA #24xT #10xP/match #21Points #24
Key players
- Jude ArthursCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
- Adetokunbo Bamidele AdeyemoRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
- Charlie Mel BarkerCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Salford City 63% · Draw 21% · Crawley Town 16%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Crawley TownBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 19,24fair 20,71-7 %
MissMatchresultat - Salford City FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,51fair 5,01-30 %
MissMatch prediction: Salford City – Crawley Town
Predicted score matrix
Crawley Town →
Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–14.4%
0–22.4%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–09.2%
1–19.9%
1–24.9%
1–31.7%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.8%
2–19.9%
2–25.1%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.7%
3–16.9%
3–23.5%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–05.6%
4+–15.7%
4+–22.9%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,07–1,02
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.68EV+8%
Over 2,560%
@1.45
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Salford City to win63%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Macaulay Langstaff to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Macaulay Langstaff to score37%
- Jude Arthurs to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Crawley Town16% probability@7.84PinnacleEV+28%reference odds
- 2 · Crawley Town16% probability@7.30BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- 2 · Crawley Town16% probability@7.30NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Salford City | X | 2 · Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.38 | 4.55 | EV+ 19% 7.30 |
| LeoVegas | 1.35 | EV+ 6% 5.00 | EV+ 14% 7.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.38 | 4.55 | EV+ 19% 7.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.35 | EV+ 15% 5.45 | EV+ 28% 7.84 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:38
Odds movement
1+1 %
73 %68 %
1.33 → 1.35
X+2 %
20 %15 %
5.33 → 5.45
2+5 %
15 %10 %
7.44 → 7.84
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSalford City 1Draw 1Crawley Town 0
Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Key facts
- Salford City come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Salford City
Crawley Town
Salford City (15–10)
Crawley Town (8–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Salford City
Crawley Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Salford City
Crawley Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Salford City | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 5 |
| xPoints | 13.2 | 9.1 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.43 |
| Playing style | Salford City | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 0.64 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.4 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 341 | 323 |
| Passes against per match | 218 | 244 |
| Switches of play per match | 19 | 24.8 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Salford City | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 6.4 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| Other | Salford City | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | William James Norris (Salford City) | Nicholas Jake Michalski (Crawley Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 16 |
| Save % | 70% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Shrewsbury Town – Bristol Rovers17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Fleetwood Town – Rotherham United17 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Accrington Stanley – Gillingham17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crewe Alexandra – Rochdale17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Port Vale – Chesterfield17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Colchester United – Exeter City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Newport County – York City17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Grimsby Town – Northampton Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Oldham Athletic – Cheltenham Town17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Salford City vs Crawley Town according to our model?
The model gives Salford City a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Salford City 63%, draw 21%, Crawley Town 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Salford City vs Crawley Town?
The model expects 2.07 goals (xG) for Salford City and 1.02 for Crawley Town, 3.09 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Salford City or draw (1X) 84%, Crawley Town or draw (X2) 37% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.